Opinion Poll by Red C for The Sunday Business Post, 22 September 2016

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 27.0% 25.2–28.8% 24.7–29.3% 24.3–29.8% 23.5–30.7%
Fine Gael 25.5% 25.0% 23.3–26.8% 22.8–27.3% 22.4–27.7% 21.6–28.6%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 15.0% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–16.9% 12.9–17.3% 12.3–18.1%
Independent 15.9% 8.4% 7.3–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
Labour Party 6.6% 7.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.7% 5.1–9.3%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
Social Democrats 3.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.1% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 44 54 47–54 47–56 47–57 44–58
Fine Gael 49 47 46–53 46–56 44–57 41–57
Sinn Féin 23 33 25–34 24–34 22–34 21–36
Independent 19 5 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–10
Labour Party 7 7 6–12 4–13 4–16 3–18
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 10 9–10 9–10 8–10 7–10
Social Democrats 3 4 4–5 4–6 4–7 3–8
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 0 0 0 0–1 0–2
Independents 4 Change 4 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0% 99.8%  
41 0% 99.8%  
42 0% 99.8%  
43 0% 99.8%  
44 0.9% 99.8% Last Result
45 0% 98.9%  
46 0.1% 98.9%  
47 15% 98.8%  
48 0.5% 84%  
49 8% 83%  
50 1.3% 75%  
51 0.4% 74%  
52 2% 74%  
53 6% 72%  
54 56% 66% Median
55 4% 10%  
56 2% 6%  
57 3% 3%  
58 0.5% 0.7%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0% 99.9%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.3% 99.8%  
42 0.3% 99.4%  
43 1.1% 99.1%  
44 1.4% 98%  
45 0.9% 97%  
46 10% 96%  
47 50% 85% Median
48 5% 35%  
49 0.5% 30% Last Result
50 1.4% 30%  
51 1.1% 28%  
52 15% 27%  
53 4% 12%  
54 2% 7%  
55 0.1% 5%  
56 0.2% 5%  
57 5% 5%  
58 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 2% 99.9%  
22 2% 98%  
23 1.3% 97% Last Result
24 5% 95%  
25 0.3% 90%  
26 0.7% 90%  
27 0.8% 89%  
28 17% 88%  
29 0.8% 71%  
30 2% 70%  
31 0.5% 69%  
32 4% 68%  
33 50% 64% Median
34 13% 13%  
35 0.2% 0.8%  
36 0.6% 0.6%  
37 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 25% 100%  
4 18% 75%  
5 55% 57% Median
6 0.8% 2%  
7 0.1% 1.4%  
8 0.4% 1.3%  
9 0.2% 0.9%  
10 0.3% 0.6%  
11 0% 0.4%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 0.1% 99.8%  
3 0.6% 99.6%  
4 6% 99.1%  
5 0.3% 93%  
6 8% 93%  
7 54% 85% Last Result, Median
8 1.4% 31%  
9 5% 30%  
10 2% 25%  
11 0.5% 23%  
12 15% 22%  
13 2% 7%  
14 1.5% 5%  
15 0.4% 3%  
16 0.4% 3%  
17 1.0% 2%  
18 0.8% 1.3%  
19 0.4% 0.5%  
20 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.4% 100%  
6 0.1% 99.6% Last Result
7 0.7% 99.5%  
8 2% 98.8%  
9 14% 96%  
10 82% 82% Median
11 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 1.4% 100% Last Result
4 87% 98.6% Median
5 5% 11%  
6 3% 6%  
7 1.1% 3%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Median
1 3% 4%  
2 0.8% 0.8% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 56% 100% Median
1 4% 44%  
2 7% 41%  
3 20% 34%  
4 13% 13% Last Result
5 0.6% 0.6%  
6 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael 93 101 100% 99–103 97–110 96–110 91–110
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 87 72% 75–87 75–88 75–88 75–89
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 56 65 0% 62–69 60–73 57–75 57–78
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 61 58 0% 58–68 56–68 56–70 55–71
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 61 0% 58–64 55–68 53–70 52–72
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 61 0% 58–63 55–68 53–70 52–71
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 54 0% 54–64 52–64 52–64 49–65
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 54 0% 54–64 52–64 52–64 49–64
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 54 0% 47–55 47–56 47–57 44–58
Fine Gael 49 47 0% 46–53 46–56 44–57 41–57
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 47 0% 46–53 46–56 44–57 41–57

Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.8%  
91 1.0% 99.8%  
92 0% 98.7%  
93 0.2% 98.7% Last Result
94 0.4% 98.5%  
95 0.3% 98%  
96 0.8% 98%  
97 4% 97%  
98 1.3% 93%  
99 16% 92%  
100 7% 76%  
101 53% 68% Median
102 6% 16%  
103 0.4% 10%  
104 0.2% 10%  
105 1.0% 9%  
106 0.1% 8%  
107 0.1% 8%  
108 1.4% 8%  
109 0.1% 7%  
110 6% 7%  
111 0% 0.2%  
112 0.2% 0.2%  
113 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0.2% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.8%  
73 0% 99.7%  
74 0% 99.7%  
75 15% 99.7%  
76 0.8% 84%  
77 7% 84%  
78 0.3% 76%  
79 2% 76%  
80 0.9% 73%  
81 4% 72% Majority
82 0.9% 68%  
83 7% 67%  
84 0.6% 61%  
85 1.2% 60%  
86 2% 59%  
87 49% 57% Median
88 7% 8%  
89 0.3% 0.8%  
90 0.2% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100% Last Result
57 4% 100%  
58 0% 96%  
59 0.4% 95%  
60 0.3% 95%  
61 0.9% 95%  
62 4% 94%  
63 16% 90%  
64 12% 74%  
65 50% 63% Median
66 0.4% 12%  
67 2% 12%  
68 0.2% 10%  
69 1.1% 10%  
70 0.4% 9%  
71 0.4% 9%  
72 3% 8%  
73 3% 6%  
74 0.1% 3%  
75 0.7% 3%  
76 0.9% 2%  
77 0.9% 2%  
78 0.5% 0.7%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0% 99.8%  
54 0.2% 99.8%  
55 0.4% 99.6%  
56 7% 99.1%  
57 0.8% 92%  
58 49% 91% Median
59 1.2% 42%  
60 0.8% 41%  
61 9% 40% Last Result
62 0.3% 31%  
63 2% 31%  
64 3% 29%  
65 0.7% 27%  
66 0.2% 26%  
67 2% 26%  
68 21% 24%  
69 0.5% 3%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.4% 0.6%  
72 0% 0.2%  
73 0% 0.2%  
74 0.2% 0.2%  
75 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.5% 100%  
53 4% 99.4% Last Result
54 0% 95%  
55 0.4% 95%  
56 1.2% 95%  
57 0.2% 94%  
58 4% 93%  
59 16% 90%  
60 12% 74%  
61 50% 62% Median
62 0.6% 12%  
63 1.1% 11%  
64 2% 10%  
65 0.2% 9%  
66 2% 8%  
67 0.2% 6%  
68 2% 6%  
69 1.3% 4%  
70 0.3% 3%  
71 1.0% 2%  
72 1.3% 1.4%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result
52 0.5% 100%  
53 4% 99.4%  
54 0.1% 95%  
55 0.4% 95%  
56 1.2% 95%  
57 0.4% 94%  
58 3% 93%  
59 16% 90%  
60 12% 74%  
61 51% 62% Median
62 0.5% 11%  
63 1.0% 11%  
64 1.5% 10%  
65 0.1% 8%  
66 2% 8%  
67 0.2% 6%  
68 3% 6%  
69 0.1% 3%  
70 0.2% 3%  
71 2% 2%  
72 0.2% 0.4%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.8%  
49 0.2% 99.7%  
50 0.1% 99.4%  
51 0.6% 99.3%  
52 8% 98.7%  
53 0.3% 91%  
54 50% 90% Median
55 2% 41%  
56 0.2% 39%  
57 8% 39%  
58 1.1% 30% Last Result
59 1.5% 29%  
60 2% 28%  
61 0.7% 26%  
62 2% 26%  
63 0.6% 24%  
64 22% 23%  
65 0.6% 1.0%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.2%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.8%  
49 0.2% 99.6%  
50 0.3% 99.4%  
51 0.9% 99.1%  
52 8% 98%  
53 0.3% 91%  
54 50% 90% Median
55 2% 40%  
56 0.2% 39% Last Result
57 8% 39%  
58 1.1% 30%  
59 2% 29%  
60 1.0% 27%  
61 0.9% 26%  
62 1.0% 25%  
63 0.7% 24%  
64 23% 23%  
65 0.2% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.2%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0% 99.8%  
41 0% 99.8%  
42 0% 99.8%  
43 0% 99.8%  
44 0.8% 99.8%  
45 0.1% 99.0%  
46 0.1% 98.9% Last Result
47 15% 98.8%  
48 0.5% 84%  
49 8% 83%  
50 1.1% 75%  
51 0.3% 74%  
52 1.4% 74%  
53 6% 73%  
54 57% 67% Median
55 3% 10%  
56 3% 7%  
57 2% 4%  
58 1.1% 1.3%  
59 0.1% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0% 99.9%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.3% 99.8%  
42 0.3% 99.4%  
43 1.1% 99.1%  
44 1.4% 98%  
45 0.9% 97%  
46 10% 96%  
47 50% 85% Median
48 5% 35%  
49 0.5% 30% Last Result
50 1.4% 30%  
51 1.1% 28%  
52 15% 27%  
53 4% 12%  
54 2% 7%  
55 0.1% 5%  
56 0.2% 5%  
57 5% 5%  
58 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.3% 99.8%  
42 0.3% 99.4%  
43 0.5% 99.2%  
44 2% 98.7%  
45 0.5% 97%  
46 10% 96%  
47 51% 87% Median
48 5% 36%  
49 1.0% 31%  
50 2% 30%  
51 1.2% 28% Last Result
52 15% 27%  
53 4% 12%  
54 2% 7%  
55 0.2% 5%  
56 0.2% 5%  
57 5% 5%  
58 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations