Opinion Poll by Ipsos MRBI for Irish Times, 4 October 2016

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 26.2% 24.7–27.9% 24.2–28.4% 23.8–28.8% 23.1–29.6%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 26.2% 24.7–27.9% 24.2–28.4% 23.8–28.8% 23.1–29.6%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 19.2% 17.8–20.7% 17.4–21.1% 17.0–21.5% 16.4–22.2%
Independent 15.9% 12.8% 11.7–14.2% 11.3–14.5% 11.1–14.9% 10.5–15.5%
Labour Party 6.6% 5.1% 4.3–6.0% 4.1–6.2% 4.0–6.5% 3.6–7.0%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 1.9–4.5%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 1.9–4.5%
Social Democrats 3.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.3%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.3% 1.0–2.5% 0.9–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 47 43–52 42–54 42–55 39–59
Fianna Fáil 44 47 43–52 41–53 40–53 36–55
Sinn Féin 23 35 34–37 34–37 33–38 31–39
Independent 19 16 13–18 11–18 10–18 9–19
Labour Party 7 5 2–9 1–10 1–10 0–12
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 3 2–4 2–4 1–4 1–5
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 2 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–3
Social Democrats 3 3 2–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Independents 4 Change 4 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.4% 99.8%  
40 0.3% 99.5%  
41 0.8% 99.2%  
42 4% 98%  
43 11% 94%  
44 14% 83%  
45 8% 69%  
46 8% 61%  
47 16% 53% Median
48 5% 37%  
49 2% 32% Last Result
50 4% 29%  
51 8% 25%  
52 8% 17%  
53 1.4% 9%  
54 3% 7%  
55 2% 4%  
56 0.6% 2%  
57 0.7% 2%  
58 0.5% 1.1%  
59 0.4% 0.6%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.5% 99.7%  
37 0.5% 99.2%  
38 0.2% 98.7%  
39 0.9% 98%  
40 1.3% 98%  
41 3% 96%  
42 3% 93%  
43 4% 90%  
44 11% 86% Last Result
45 9% 75%  
46 3% 66%  
47 14% 63% Median
48 12% 48%  
49 14% 36%  
50 6% 23%  
51 3% 17%  
52 6% 14%  
53 6% 7%  
54 0.8% 2%  
55 0.6% 0.8%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.6% 99.8%  
32 0.7% 99.2%  
33 2% 98.5%  
34 28% 97%  
35 36% 69% Median
36 20% 33%  
37 8% 12%  
38 3% 5%  
39 0.9% 1.1%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0.1% 99.9%  
8 0.2% 99.8%  
9 0.5% 99.6%  
10 2% 99.1%  
11 3% 97%  
12 4% 94%  
13 13% 91%  
14 11% 78%  
15 7% 67%  
16 24% 60% Median
17 14% 36%  
18 19% 21%  
19 2% 2% Last Result
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 4% 99.4%  
2 10% 95%  
3 9% 85%  
4 10% 76%  
5 20% 67% Median
6 21% 46%  
7 11% 26% Last Result
8 4% 15%  
9 5% 11%  
10 3% 5%  
11 1.0% 2%  
12 0.6% 1.0%  
13 0.2% 0.4%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 3% 99.7%  
2 29% 96%  
3 56% 67% Median
4 11% 12%  
5 0.4% 0.9%  
6 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 15% 100%  
1 28% 85%  
2 54% 56% Last Result, Median
3 2% 2%  
4 0.2% 0.3%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 8% 100%  
2 6% 92%  
3 86% 86% Last Result, Median
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 24% 100%  
3 76% 76% Median
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael 93 94 100% 90–99 89–99 87–101 84–103
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 83 68% 78–87 77–88 75–89 72–90
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 56 0% 53–62 52–63 51–64 50–68
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 57 0% 51–62 49–63 47–63 44–65
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 53 0% 50–59 49–60 48–61 47–65
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 52 0% 48–58 48–58 46–60 45–63
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 55 0% 48–59 47–60 44–60 41–62
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 53 0% 48–57 45–58 43–59 40–61
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 48 0% 45–54 44–56 43–57 41–60
Fine Gael 49 47 0% 43–52 42–54 42–55 39–59
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 49 0% 44–54 42–54 40–55 37–57

Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0% 100%  
84 0.7% 99.9%  
85 0.2% 99.2%  
86 1.5% 99.1%  
87 0.5% 98%  
88 1.0% 97%  
89 3% 96%  
90 6% 93%  
91 11% 87%  
92 8% 75%  
93 8% 67% Last Result
94 10% 59% Median
95 12% 49%  
96 12% 38%  
97 4% 26%  
98 6% 21%  
99 10% 15%  
100 1.0% 5%  
101 1.4% 4%  
102 0.9% 2%  
103 1.2% 2%  
104 0.3% 0.4%  
105 0% 0.2%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.3% 99.8%  
72 0.7% 99.6%  
73 0.5% 98.8%  
74 0.4% 98%  
75 0.7% 98%  
76 1.4% 97%  
77 5% 96%  
78 6% 90%  
79 9% 85%  
80 7% 76%  
81 10% 68% Majority
82 7% 59% Median
83 16% 52%  
84 9% 36%  
85 9% 27%  
86 3% 18%  
87 9% 15%  
88 2% 6%  
89 3% 4%  
90 0.6% 1.0%  
91 0.3% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.7%  
50 1.3% 99.6%  
51 2% 98%  
52 3% 96%  
53 11% 93%  
54 12% 82%  
55 13% 71%  
56 13% 58%  
57 8% 44% Median
58 10% 37%  
59 4% 27%  
60 5% 23%  
61 5% 18% Last Result
62 5% 12%  
63 5% 7%  
64 1.0% 3%  
65 0.4% 2%  
66 0.6% 1.4%  
67 0.2% 0.8%  
68 0.4% 0.6%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.2% 99.8%  
44 0.2% 99.5%  
45 0.4% 99.3%  
46 0.6% 98.9%  
47 2% 98%  
48 0.6% 97%  
49 1.1% 96%  
50 2% 95%  
51 4% 93%  
52 6% 89%  
53 4% 83%  
54 7% 79%  
55 5% 71%  
56 9% 66% Last Result
57 9% 57% Median
58 12% 48%  
59 15% 36%  
60 5% 20%  
61 5% 15%  
62 4% 10%  
63 5% 7%  
64 1.2% 2%  
65 0.3% 0.6%  
66 0.2% 0.2%  
67 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.8%  
47 1.2% 99.7%  
48 2% 98%  
49 3% 97%  
50 10% 94%  
51 11% 84%  
52 12% 73%  
53 14% 61%  
54 8% 47% Median
55 11% 40%  
56 5% 29%  
57 5% 24%  
58 6% 19% Last Result
59 5% 13%  
60 5% 8%  
61 1.0% 3%  
62 0.5% 2%  
63 0.6% 2%  
64 0.3% 0.9%  
65 0.4% 0.6%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0% 99.9%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 1.1% 99.8%  
46 2% 98.7%  
47 2% 97%  
48 8% 96%  
49 9% 88%  
50 12% 78%  
51 13% 66%  
52 8% 53% Median
53 11% 45%  
54 6% 35%  
55 4% 28%  
56 6% 24% Last Result
57 6% 18%  
58 8% 12%  
59 1.4% 4%  
60 1.0% 3%  
61 0.8% 2%  
62 0.4% 1.3%  
63 0.5% 0.9%  
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.8%  
41 0.1% 99.6%  
42 0.4% 99.5%  
43 0.5% 99.1%  
44 1.5% 98.5%  
45 0.6% 97%  
46 1.3% 96%  
47 1.4% 95%  
48 4% 94%  
49 5% 90%  
50 4% 85%  
51 8% 81%  
52 6% 73%  
53 8% 67% Last Result
54 7% 59% Median
55 14% 52%  
56 16% 38%  
57 6% 22%  
58 6% 16%  
59 4% 11%  
60 5% 7%  
61 1.3% 2%  
62 0.4% 0.8%  
63 0.3% 0.3%  
64 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.8%  
40 0.1% 99.6%  
41 0.6% 99.5%  
42 0.4% 98.8%  
43 2% 98%  
44 0.9% 97%  
45 1.1% 96%  
46 1.4% 95%  
47 3% 94%  
48 6% 90%  
49 7% 84%  
50 8% 78%  
51 5% 69% Last Result
52 7% 65% Median
53 15% 58%  
54 15% 43%  
55 9% 28%  
56 3% 18%  
57 7% 15%  
58 6% 9%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.4% 1.0%  
61 0.5% 0.5%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.8%  
41 0.4% 99.7%  
42 0.6% 99.2%  
43 2% 98.6%  
44 6% 97%  
45 12% 91%  
46 14% 80%  
47 14% 66%  
48 10% 52%  
49 7% 42% Median
50 5% 35%  
51 5% 31% Last Result
52 9% 25%  
53 5% 17%  
54 4% 11%  
55 2% 8%  
56 2% 6%  
57 1.4% 3%  
58 0.6% 2%  
59 0.5% 1.1%  
60 0.4% 0.6%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.4% 99.8%  
40 0.3% 99.5%  
41 0.8% 99.2%  
42 4% 98%  
43 11% 94%  
44 14% 83%  
45 8% 69%  
46 8% 61%  
47 16% 53% Median
48 5% 37%  
49 2% 32% Last Result
50 4% 29%  
51 8% 25%  
52 8% 17%  
53 1.4% 9%  
54 3% 7%  
55 2% 4%  
56 0.6% 2%  
57 0.7% 2%  
58 0.5% 1.1%  
59 0.4% 0.6%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.3% 99.7%  
38 0.4% 99.4%  
39 0.5% 99.0%  
40 1.0% 98%  
41 1.0% 97%  
42 3% 96%  
43 3% 94%  
44 3% 90%  
45 7% 87%  
46 10% 80% Last Result
47 5% 69%  
48 8% 64%  
49 16% 57% Median
50 13% 41%  
51 7% 28%  
52 5% 21%  
53 5% 15%  
54 7% 11%  
55 3% 4%  
56 0.8% 1.4%  
57 0.5% 0.6%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations