Opinion Poll by Behaviour & Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 12 October 2016

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 30.5% 28.4–32.3% 27.9–32.9% 27.4–33.4% 26.5–34.4%
Fine Gael 25.5% 26.5% 24.5–28.2% 24.0–28.8% 23.5–29.2% 22.7–30.2%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 17.2% 15.6–18.8% 15.2–19.3% 14.8–19.7% 14.1–20.5%
Independent 15.9% 9.4% 8.2–10.7% 7.9–11.1% 7.7–11.4% 7.1–12.1%
Labour Party 6.6% 5.0% 4.2–6.1% 4.0–6.4% 3.8–6.6% 3.4–7.2%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.2% 1.1–3.6%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.2% 1.1–3.6%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.7–2.0% 0.7–2.1% 0.5–2.5%
Social Democrats 3.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.9% 0.4–2.2%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.3% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.9% 0.4–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 44 60 57–61 57–61 55–62 54–63
Fine Gael 49 51 48–57 45–57 44–57 44–58
Sinn Féin 23 33 30–39 30–40 28–40 28–41
Independent 19 6 3–7 3–8 3–9 3–12
Labour Party 7 2 2–6 1–6 1–8 0–10
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 0 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–4
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 1 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2
Independents 4 Change 4 2 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Social Democrats 3 2 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100% Last Result
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.7%  
54 2% 99.6%  
55 0.4% 98%  
56 0.5% 97%  
57 34% 97%  
58 6% 63%  
59 1.2% 57%  
60 11% 56% Median
61 41% 45%  
62 3% 3%  
63 0.6% 0.7%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 2% 99.7%  
45 3% 97%  
46 0.7% 94%  
47 2% 93%  
48 2% 91%  
49 6% 90% Last Result
50 3% 84%  
51 39% 81% Median
52 0.8% 42%  
53 2% 42%  
54 4% 40%  
55 2% 36%  
56 3% 34%  
57 30% 32%  
58 1.0% 2%  
59 0% 0.5%  
60 0.2% 0.5%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 0.2% 99.7%  
28 2% 99.5%  
29 0.4% 97%  
30 16% 97%  
31 4% 81%  
32 2% 77%  
33 38% 75% Median
34 6% 38%  
35 1.3% 32%  
36 2% 30%  
37 16% 29%  
38 0.2% 13%  
39 5% 13%  
40 7% 7%  
41 0.7% 0.7%  
42 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 20% 100%  
4 17% 80%  
5 9% 63%  
6 9% 54% Median
7 38% 45%  
8 3% 7%  
9 2% 4%  
10 1.0% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.8%  
12 0.3% 0.6%  
13 0.1% 0.3%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 6% 98%  
2 62% 92% Median
3 1.0% 30%  
4 0.7% 29%  
5 6% 28%  
6 18% 22%  
7 2% 5% Last Result
8 1.3% 3%  
9 0.3% 2%  
10 1.2% 1.3%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 51% 100% Median
1 16% 49%  
2 0.7% 33%  
3 27% 32%  
4 5% 6%  
5 0.2% 0.3%  
6 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
7 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 31% 100%  
1 63% 69% Median
2 6% 6% Last Result
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 20% 100%  
1 1.3% 80%  
2 64% 79% Median
3 0.4% 15%  
4 13% 14% Last Result
5 1.3% 1.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 18% 100%  
1 23% 82%  
2 18% 59% Median
3 41% 41% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.7%  
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael 93 112 100% 108–114 104–114 102–114 102–116
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 94 100% 87–98 87–100 87–100 85–102
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 65 0% 61–67 61–67 59–70 57–70
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 64 0% 60–64 60–67 59–68 56–70
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 63 0% 59–63 59–67 58–68 56–69
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 57 0% 53–65 51–65 49–65 46–65
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 54 0% 53–63 50–63 47–63 46–64
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 53 0% 51–63 50–63 47–63 45–63
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 61 0% 57–62 57–62 56–62 54–63
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 52 0% 49–58 45–58 45–58 45–59
Fine Gael 49 51 0% 48–57 45–57 44–57 44–58

Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0.2% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.8%  
102 3% 99.7%  
103 0.1% 97%  
104 3% 96%  
105 0.6% 94%  
106 0.5% 93%  
107 0.4% 92%  
108 3% 92%  
109 5% 89%  
110 2% 83%  
111 2% 81% Median
112 41% 80%  
113 2% 38%  
114 34% 36%  
115 2% 2%  
116 0.3% 0.5%  
117 0.1% 0.2%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100% Majority
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.8%  
85 0.4% 99.7%  
86 0.2% 99.3%  
87 16% 99.1%  
88 1.2% 83%  
89 4% 82%  
90 4% 79%  
91 0.4% 75%  
92 3% 75%  
93 0.6% 71% Median
94 54% 71%  
95 3% 17%  
96 4% 14%  
97 0.3% 10%  
98 0.7% 10%  
99 2% 9%  
100 6% 7%  
101 0.3% 0.9%  
102 0.6% 0.6%  
103 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100% Last Result
57 0.3% 99.8%  
58 0.4% 99.5%  
59 2% 99.1%  
60 2% 97%  
61 16% 96%  
62 3% 79%  
63 5% 76%  
64 6% 71%  
65 18% 65% Median
66 3% 47%  
67 39% 44%  
68 2% 5%  
69 0.2% 3%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.1% 0.3%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.6% 99.8%  
57 0.3% 99.2%  
58 1.0% 98.9%  
59 2% 98%  
60 17% 96%  
61 1.2% 79%  
62 8% 78%  
63 18% 70% Median
64 42% 52%  
65 3% 10%  
66 0.4% 7%  
67 2% 6%  
68 2% 4%  
69 1.1% 2%  
70 0.8% 0.9%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 0.4% 99.5%  
57 0.8% 99.1%  
58 1.0% 98%  
59 18% 97%  
60 1.4% 80%  
61 3% 78%  
62 12% 75% Median
63 53% 63%  
64 3% 10%  
65 0.9% 7%  
66 0.3% 7%  
67 3% 6%  
68 3% 4%  
69 0.8% 1.0%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 2% 100%  
47 0.1% 98%  
48 0.1% 98%  
49 0.4% 98%  
50 1.0% 97%  
51 4% 96%  
52 0.6% 92%  
53 6% 92%  
54 0.7% 85%  
55 3% 85%  
56 3% 81% Median
57 37% 78%  
58 2% 41%  
59 2% 39%  
60 0.8% 36%  
61 16% 36% Last Result
62 0.2% 20%  
63 0.3% 20%  
64 3% 20%  
65 16% 17%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100%  
46 2% 99.8%  
47 0.1% 98%  
48 0.4% 97%  
49 1.2% 97%  
50 3% 96%  
51 2% 93%  
52 0.2% 90%  
53 5% 90%  
54 37% 85% Median
55 4% 48%  
56 5% 44%  
57 0.5% 39%  
58 3% 38% Last Result
59 0.2% 35%  
60 15% 35%  
61 0% 20%  
62 0.2% 20%  
63 18% 20%  
64 2% 2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 2% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 98%  
47 0.1% 98%  
48 1.0% 97%  
49 0.6% 96%  
50 5% 96%  
51 6% 91%  
52 0.7% 85%  
53 37% 85% Median
54 0.5% 48%  
55 5% 47%  
56 4% 42% Last Result
57 1.0% 38%  
58 2% 37%  
59 15% 35%  
60 0.1% 20%  
61 0.3% 20%  
62 2% 20%  
63 17% 17%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.4% 99.7%  
55 2% 99.3%  
56 0.9% 98%  
57 19% 97%  
58 17% 78%  
59 4% 61%  
60 3% 57%  
61 7% 54% Median
62 46% 47%  
63 0.8% 1.0%  
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.2% 99.8%  
45 5% 99.5%  
46 0.2% 94%  
47 1.1% 94%  
48 2% 93%  
49 2% 91%  
50 3% 89%  
51 7% 87% Last Result
52 37% 80% Median
53 1.1% 43%  
54 5% 42%  
55 2% 37%  
56 0.7% 35%  
57 17% 34%  
58 15% 17%  
59 0.9% 1.4%  
60 0.1% 0.5%  
61 0.2% 0.4%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 2% 99.7%  
45 3% 97%  
46 0.7% 94%  
47 2% 93%  
48 2% 91%  
49 6% 90% Last Result
50 3% 84%  
51 39% 81% Median
52 0.8% 42%  
53 2% 42%  
54 4% 40%  
55 2% 36%  
56 3% 34%  
57 30% 32%  
58 1.0% 2%  
59 0% 0.5%  
60 0.2% 0.5%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations