Opinion Poll by Millward Brown for The Sunday Independent, 20 October 2016

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 29.0% 27.1–30.9% 26.6–31.5% 26.2–32.0% 25.3–32.9%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 27.0% 25.2–28.9% 24.7–29.4% 24.2–29.9% 23.4–30.8%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 20.0% 18.4–21.7% 17.9–22.2% 17.5–22.6% 16.8–23.5%
Labour Party 6.6% 8.0% 6.9–9.2% 6.6–9.6% 6.4–9.9% 5.9–10.5%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.6% 3.4–7.1%
Independent 15.9% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.6% 1.7–3.8% 1.5–4.2%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.5%
Social Democrats 3.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 51 47–58 46–59 46–61 44–62
Fianna Fáil 44 51 46–54 45–55 41–56 40–57
Sinn Féin 23 36 34–40 34–40 33–41 32–43
Labour Party 7 13 7–17 7–17 6–18 5–20
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 8 4–9 3–10 3–10 3–10
Independent 19 0 0 0 0 0
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–2
Social Democrats 3 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Independents 4 Change 4 0 0 0 0 0–1

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.7% 99.8%  
45 1.1% 99.1%  
46 6% 98%  
47 3% 92%  
48 4% 89%  
49 4% 85% Last Result
50 22% 81%  
51 11% 59% Median
52 11% 48%  
53 6% 37%  
54 10% 31%  
55 3% 21%  
56 2% 18%  
57 3% 16%  
58 6% 13%  
59 3% 7%  
60 0.8% 3%  
61 0.9% 3%  
62 1.3% 2%  
63 0.3% 0.5%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.9% 99.7%  
41 2% 98.7%  
42 1.0% 97%  
43 0.4% 96%  
44 0.3% 95% Last Result
45 1.2% 95%  
46 5% 94%  
47 5% 88%  
48 14% 84%  
49 6% 69%  
50 13% 63%  
51 10% 50% Median
52 9% 40%  
53 14% 31%  
54 13% 18%  
55 2% 5%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.5% 0.8%  
58 0.1% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.2% 99.8%  
32 1.2% 99.6%  
33 3% 98%  
34 8% 96%  
35 21% 88%  
36 29% 67% Median
37 7% 38%  
38 13% 32%  
39 7% 18%  
40 6% 11%  
41 3% 5%  
42 1.4% 2%  
43 0.4% 0.6%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 0.6% 99.9%  
6 4% 99.3%  
7 8% 96% Last Result
8 7% 88%  
9 9% 81%  
10 3% 73%  
11 8% 69%  
12 7% 61%  
13 10% 54% Median
14 8% 45%  
15 7% 37%  
16 6% 30%  
17 20% 24%  
18 2% 4%  
19 1.0% 2%  
20 0.3% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 9% 100%  
4 3% 91%  
5 15% 88%  
6 8% 73% Last Result
7 3% 65%  
8 35% 62% Median
9 17% 26%  
10 9% 9%  
11 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Median
1 3% 5%  
2 2% 2% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 68% 100% Median
1 13% 32%  
2 6% 19%  
3 13% 13% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.7% 100% Median
1 1.0% 1.3%  
2 0.2% 0.3%  
3 0.1% 0.2%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 102 100% 97–108 97–110 95–111 93–113
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 87 95% 82–92 81–93 78–94 76–97
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 66 0% 59–70 58–73 58–75 55–77
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 65 0% 58–70 58–72 57–74 55–76
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 65 0% 58–70 58–72 57–74 55–76
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 64 0% 59–67 57–68 56–69 53–72
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 63 0% 58–67 57–67 56–68 52–71
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 63 0% 58–67 57–67 56–68 52–71
Fine Gael 49 51 0% 47–58 46–59 46–61 44–62
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 51 0% 47–58 46–59 46–61 44–63
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 51 0% 46–54 45–55 41–56 40–57

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0.3% 99.9%  
93 0.5% 99.6% Last Result
94 0.8% 99.2%  
95 2% 98%  
96 1.4% 97%  
97 6% 95%  
98 12% 89%  
99 4% 77%  
100 11% 73%  
101 7% 62%  
102 9% 55% Median
103 9% 46%  
104 9% 37%  
105 6% 27%  
106 4% 22%  
107 5% 17%  
108 3% 12%  
109 4% 9%  
110 0.9% 5%  
111 3% 4%  
112 0.6% 2%  
113 0.8% 0.9%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.7% 99.8%  
77 0.7% 99.1%  
78 1.4% 98%  
79 0.5% 97%  
80 1.0% 96%  
81 2% 95% Majority
82 5% 94%  
83 5% 89%  
84 18% 84%  
85 10% 66%  
86 5% 56%  
87 8% 51% Median
88 7% 43%  
89 7% 36%  
90 10% 29%  
91 3% 19%  
92 9% 16%  
93 4% 7%  
94 1.1% 3%  
95 0.5% 2%  
96 0.5% 1.4%  
97 0.7% 0.9%  
98 0% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.5% 99.9%  
56 0.9% 99.4%  
57 0.7% 98.5%  
58 5% 98%  
59 5% 93%  
60 4% 88%  
61 7% 84% Last Result
62 5% 77%  
63 6% 72%  
64 5% 66% Median
65 6% 61%  
66 6% 56%  
67 24% 50%  
68 6% 25%  
69 7% 20%  
70 3% 12%  
71 2% 10%  
72 2% 8%  
73 0.7% 5%  
74 2% 5%  
75 0.7% 3%  
76 1.2% 2%  
77 0.9% 1.1%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.7% 99.8%  
56 0.9% 99.1%  
57 1.3% 98%  
58 7% 97% Last Result
59 6% 90%  
60 4% 84%  
61 7% 80%  
62 3% 73%  
63 6% 69%  
64 8% 63% Median
65 9% 55%  
66 7% 46%  
67 19% 39%  
68 3% 20%  
69 7% 18%  
70 2% 10%  
71 2% 8%  
72 2% 7%  
73 0.7% 5%  
74 2% 4%  
75 0.5% 2%  
76 1.4% 2%  
77 0.3% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.8% 99.7%  
56 1.2% 98.9% Last Result
57 1.0% 98%  
58 7% 97%  
59 6% 89%  
60 4% 84%  
61 7% 80%  
62 4% 73%  
63 6% 68%  
64 8% 62% Median
65 9% 54%  
66 6% 45%  
67 19% 39%  
68 3% 20%  
69 7% 17%  
70 2% 10%  
71 1.3% 8%  
72 2% 7%  
73 0.7% 4%  
74 2% 4%  
75 0.4% 2%  
76 1.3% 2%  
77 0.3% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.7%  
54 0.3% 99.5%  
55 1.4% 99.2%  
56 0.9% 98% Last Result
57 3% 97%  
58 2% 94%  
59 2% 92%  
60 4% 89%  
61 8% 85%  
62 15% 77%  
63 6% 62%  
64 8% 57% Median
65 21% 49%  
66 9% 28%  
67 10% 18%  
68 4% 9%  
69 2% 4%  
70 1.1% 2%  
71 0.4% 0.9%  
72 0.2% 0.5%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.4% 99.8%  
53 0.3% 99.4% Last Result
54 0.3% 99.1%  
55 1.3% 98.8%  
56 1.5% 98%  
57 3% 96%  
58 5% 94%  
59 5% 89%  
60 5% 84%  
61 8% 79%  
62 12% 71%  
63 9% 59%  
64 8% 49% Median
65 23% 42%  
66 4% 19%  
67 11% 14%  
68 2% 4%  
69 0.6% 2%  
70 0.8% 1.4%  
71 0.4% 0.6%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 99.9%  
51 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
52 0.4% 99.8%  
53 0.4% 99.4%  
54 0.3% 99.0%  
55 1.2% 98.7%  
56 2% 98%  
57 3% 96%  
58 4% 93%  
59 5% 89%  
60 5% 84%  
61 8% 78%  
62 13% 70%  
63 9% 57%  
64 8% 49% Median
65 22% 41%  
66 4% 19%  
67 10% 14%  
68 2% 4%  
69 0.5% 2%  
70 0.8% 1.3%  
71 0.3% 0.6%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.7% 99.8%  
45 1.1% 99.1%  
46 6% 98%  
47 3% 92%  
48 4% 89%  
49 4% 85% Last Result
50 22% 81%  
51 11% 59% Median
52 11% 48%  
53 6% 37%  
54 10% 31%  
55 3% 21%  
56 2% 18%  
57 3% 16%  
58 6% 13%  
59 3% 7%  
60 0.8% 3%  
61 0.9% 3%  
62 1.3% 2%  
63 0.3% 0.5%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.7% 99.8%  
45 1.0% 99.1%  
46 6% 98%  
47 3% 92%  
48 4% 89%  
49 4% 85%  
50 22% 81%  
51 11% 60% Last Result, Median
52 11% 49%  
53 6% 37%  
54 11% 32%  
55 3% 21%  
56 2% 18%  
57 3% 16%  
58 6% 13%  
59 3% 7%  
60 0.9% 4%  
61 1.0% 3%  
62 1.2% 2%  
63 0.2% 0.6%  
64 0.1% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.9% 99.7%  
41 2% 98.8%  
42 0.9% 97%  
43 0.4% 96%  
44 0.4% 96%  
45 1.1% 95%  
46 5% 94% Last Result
47 5% 89%  
48 14% 84%  
49 5% 70%  
50 13% 64%  
51 10% 51% Median
52 8% 41%  
53 13% 32%  
54 13% 19%  
55 3% 6%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.6% 0.9%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations