Opinion Poll by Behaviour & Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 9 November 2016

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 30.2% 28.3–32.2% 27.8–32.8% 27.3–33.2% 26.4–34.2%
Fine Gael 25.5% 28.2% 26.3–30.1% 25.8–30.7% 25.3–31.1% 24.5–32.1%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 17.1% 15.6–18.8% 15.2–19.3% 14.8–19.7% 14.1–20.5%
Independent 15.9% 9.3% 8.2–10.7% 7.9–11.0% 7.6–11.4% 7.1–12.0%
Labour Party 6.6% 3.0% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.4% 1.8–4.8%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 3.0% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.4% 1.8–4.8%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.2% 1.1–3.6%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.2% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.0% 0.7–2.1% 0.5–2.5%
Social Democrats 3.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.0–1.0%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.1% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.0–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 44 59 55–60 55–61 54–61 51–62
Fine Gael 49 56 51–58 49–61 48–62 46–64
Sinn Féin 23 33 31–35 30–36 30–36 27–39
Independent 19 5 4–8 4–9 4–11 4–12
Labour Party 7 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 4 4–5 4–6 3–6 0–8
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Independents 4 Change 4 3 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Social Democrats 3 0 0 0 0 0–2
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100% Last Result
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0% 99.9%  
48 0% 99.9%  
49 0% 99.9%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.7% 99.8%  
52 0.1% 99.1%  
53 1.4% 99.0%  
54 1.1% 98%  
55 7% 97%  
56 2% 90%  
57 5% 88%  
58 30% 83%  
59 16% 53% Median
60 30% 37%  
61 6% 7%  
62 1.4% 2%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0% 99.8%  
45 0.1% 99.8%  
46 1.3% 99.6%  
47 0.6% 98%  
48 0.6% 98%  
49 3% 97% Last Result
50 0.2% 94%  
51 4% 94%  
52 0.2% 89%  
53 3% 89%  
54 12% 86%  
55 7% 74%  
56 26% 67% Median
57 6% 41%  
58 26% 35%  
59 1.5% 9%  
60 2% 8%  
61 1.0% 6%  
62 3% 5%  
63 1.0% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.7%  
65 0% 0.3%  
66 0.3% 0.3%  
67 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0.7% 99.9%  
28 0.3% 99.3%  
29 0.8% 99.0%  
30 5% 98%  
31 12% 93%  
32 20% 82%  
33 15% 62% Median
34 13% 47%  
35 28% 34%  
36 4% 6%  
37 0.1% 2%  
38 0.2% 2%  
39 1.3% 2%  
40 0.2% 0.4%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 25% 100%  
5 33% 75% Median
6 30% 43%  
7 2% 13%  
8 4% 11%  
9 4% 7%  
10 0.2% 3%  
11 1.0% 3%  
12 1.4% 2%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0.3% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0.3% 98%  
2 0.2% 98%  
3 1.0% 98%  
4 81% 97% Median
5 7% 16%  
6 8% 9% Last Result
7 0.3% 1.0%  
8 0.2% 0.6%  
9 0.5% 0.5%  
10 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Median
1 10% 12%  
2 2% 2% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 31% 100%  
1 8% 69%  
2 2% 61%  
3 13% 58% Median
4 40% 45% Last Result
5 5% 5%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Median
1 1.1% 2%  
2 0.7% 0.7%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael 93 116 100% 109–116 108–117 108–118 105–122
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 92 99.9% 89–94 88–94 87–95 84–99
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 56 0% 51–58 49–62 48–63 46–64
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 56 0% 51–58 49–62 48–63 46–65
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 56 0% 51–58 49–62 48–63 46–65
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 59 0% 56–60 55–61 54–62 51–63
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 59 0% 56–60 55–61 54–62 51–63
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 59 0% 56–60 55–61 54–62 51–63
Fine Gael 49 56 0% 51–58 49–61 48–62 46–64
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 56 0% 51–58 49–61 48–62 46–64
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 59 0% 55–60 55–61 54–61 51–62

Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.3% 99.8%  
105 0% 99.5%  
106 0.1% 99.5%  
107 0.6% 99.4%  
108 6% 98.8%  
109 3% 93%  
110 0.7% 90%  
111 3% 89%  
112 4% 86%  
113 14% 81%  
114 4% 67%  
115 2% 63% Median
116 56% 61%  
117 3% 6%  
118 1.0% 3%  
119 1.0% 2%  
120 0.2% 1.2%  
121 0% 1.0%  
122 0.8% 0.9%  
123 0.1% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0% 99.9%  
81 0.1% 99.9% Majority
82 0% 99.8%  
83 0.1% 99.8%  
84 0.4% 99.6%  
85 0.7% 99.3%  
86 1.0% 98.6%  
87 2% 98%  
88 3% 96%  
89 8% 93%  
90 2% 85%  
91 15% 82%  
92 29% 68% Median
93 27% 39%  
94 8% 12%  
95 2% 4%  
96 0.2% 2%  
97 0.2% 2%  
98 0.1% 1.4%  
99 1.0% 1.4%  
100 0.2% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.8%  
46 1.4% 99.7%  
47 0.6% 98%  
48 0.6% 98%  
49 3% 97%  
50 0.1% 94%  
51 4% 94% Last Result
52 0.3% 90%  
53 3% 89%  
54 11% 87%  
55 6% 75%  
56 28% 69% Median
57 2% 41%  
58 30% 39%  
59 1.1% 9%  
60 2% 8%  
61 0.8% 6%  
62 1.2% 5%  
63 3% 4%  
64 0.3% 0.8%  
65 0.2% 0.5%  
66 0.3% 0.3%  
67 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.1% 99.8%  
46 1.3% 99.7%  
47 0.6% 98%  
48 0.6% 98%  
49 3% 97%  
50 0.1% 94%  
51 4% 94%  
52 0.3% 90%  
53 3% 89%  
54 11% 87%  
55 6% 76%  
56 28% 70% Median
57 2% 41%  
58 30% 39% Last Result
59 1.0% 10%  
60 3% 9%  
61 0.8% 6%  
62 1.3% 5%  
63 3% 4%  
64 0.3% 0.8%  
65 0.3% 0.6%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.8%  
46 1.3% 99.7%  
47 0.6% 98%  
48 0.6% 98%  
49 3% 97%  
50 0.1% 94%  
51 4% 94%  
52 0.3% 90%  
53 3% 89%  
54 11% 87%  
55 6% 76%  
56 28% 70% Median
57 2% 42%  
58 30% 40%  
59 0.6% 10%  
60 3% 9%  
61 0.8% 6% Last Result
62 1.3% 5%  
63 3% 4%  
64 0.3% 0.9%  
65 0.3% 0.6%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100% Last Result
47 0% 99.9%  
48 0% 99.9%  
49 0% 99.9%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.7% 99.8%  
52 0% 99.1%  
53 1.2% 99.0%  
54 0.9% 98%  
55 4% 97%  
56 4% 93%  
57 5% 88%  
58 29% 83%  
59 12% 55% Median
60 35% 43%  
61 5% 8%  
62 3% 3%  
63 0.7% 0.7%  
64 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0% 99.9%  
49 0% 99.9%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.7% 99.8%  
52 0% 99.1%  
53 1.0% 99.1% Last Result
54 1.1% 98%  
55 4% 97%  
56 4% 93%  
57 5% 88%  
58 29% 84%  
59 11% 55% Median
60 35% 44%  
61 5% 9%  
62 3% 4%  
63 0.7% 0.8%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0% 99.9%  
49 0% 99.9%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.7% 99.8%  
52 0% 99.1%  
53 0.8% 99.1%  
54 1.2% 98%  
55 4% 97%  
56 4% 93% Last Result
57 5% 89%  
58 29% 84%  
59 11% 55% Median
60 34% 44%  
61 5% 10%  
62 4% 4%  
63 0.8% 0.9%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0% 99.8%  
45 0.1% 99.8%  
46 1.3% 99.6%  
47 0.6% 98%  
48 0.6% 98%  
49 3% 97% Last Result
50 0.2% 94%  
51 4% 94%  
52 0.2% 89%  
53 3% 89%  
54 12% 86%  
55 7% 74%  
56 26% 67% Median
57 6% 41%  
58 26% 35%  
59 1.5% 9%  
60 2% 8%  
61 1.0% 6%  
62 3% 5%  
63 1.0% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.7%  
65 0% 0.3%  
66 0.3% 0.3%  
67 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0% 99.8%  
45 0.1% 99.8%  
46 1.3% 99.7%  
47 0.6% 98%  
48 0.6% 98%  
49 3% 97%  
50 0.2% 94%  
51 4% 94%  
52 0.2% 89%  
53 3% 89%  
54 13% 86%  
55 6% 74%  
56 26% 67% Last Result, Median
57 6% 41%  
58 26% 35%  
59 1.2% 9%  
60 2% 8%  
61 1.0% 6%  
62 3% 5%  
63 1.1% 2%  
64 0.3% 0.7%  
65 0.1% 0.4%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0% 99.9%  
49 0% 99.9%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.7% 99.8% Last Result
52 0.1% 99.1%  
53 1.2% 99.0%  
54 1.3% 98%  
55 7% 97%  
56 2% 90%  
57 5% 88%  
58 30% 83%  
59 15% 53% Median
60 31% 39%  
61 6% 8%  
62 2% 2%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations