Opinion Poll by Red C for The Sunday Business Post, 25 November 2016

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 25.5% 23.6–27.1% 23.1–27.6% 22.7–28.1% 21.9–29.0%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 24.4% 22.5–26.0% 22.1–26.5% 21.6–27.0% 20.9–27.8%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 16.3% 14.8–17.8% 14.4–18.2% 14.0–18.6% 13.4–19.4%
Independent 15.9% 10.3% 9.1–11.5% 8.7–11.9% 8.5–12.2% 8.0–12.9%
Labour Party 6.6% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.6–7.2%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.6–7.2%
Social Democrats 3.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.3% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.8–2.2% 0.6–2.5%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.3% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 49 44–55 43–56 42–58 41–61
Fianna Fáil 44 48 44–53 43–54 40–56 38–57
Sinn Féin 23 33 31–35 29–37 28–37 26–37
Independent 19 6 5–13 4–14 3–15 3–16
Labour Party 7 2 1–5 1–6 1–7 0–9
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 9 7–10 6–10 5–10 4–10
Social Democrats 3 5 4–7 4–7 4–8 3–9
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 2 0–2 0–2 0–3 0–3
Independents 4 Change 4 3 1–5 0–5 0–5 0–5
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 0.5% 99.8%  
42 3% 99.2%  
43 3% 96%  
44 3% 93%  
45 9% 90%  
46 9% 80%  
47 3% 72%  
48 9% 69%  
49 14% 59% Last Result, Median
50 2% 46%  
51 5% 43%  
52 3% 39%  
53 18% 36%  
54 3% 18%  
55 8% 15%  
56 2% 6%  
57 0.9% 5%  
58 2% 4%  
59 1.2% 2%  
60 0.3% 1.1%  
61 0.4% 0.8%  
62 0.1% 0.4%  
63 0% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.7% 99.8%  
39 0.5% 99.1%  
40 1.1% 98.6%  
41 1.3% 97%  
42 0.7% 96%  
43 0.9% 95%  
44 5% 95% Last Result
45 4% 90%  
46 11% 86%  
47 18% 75%  
48 11% 57% Median
49 10% 46%  
50 6% 36%  
51 10% 30%  
52 7% 20%  
53 8% 14%  
54 1.3% 6%  
55 2% 4%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.4% 0.6%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
24 0.1% 99.9%  
25 0.1% 99.8%  
26 0.3% 99.7%  
27 0.2% 99.3%  
28 4% 99.1%  
29 0.8% 95%  
30 3% 95%  
31 7% 92%  
32 7% 85%  
33 34% 78% Median
34 31% 44%  
35 3% 13%  
36 4% 10%  
37 5% 6%  
38 0.2% 0.4%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 3% 100%  
4 3% 97%  
5 13% 94%  
6 32% 81% Median
7 4% 49%  
8 13% 45%  
9 2% 32%  
10 6% 30%  
11 7% 24%  
12 4% 17%  
13 6% 13%  
14 3% 7%  
15 4% 5%  
16 0.6% 0.6%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.4% 100%  
1 29% 98.6%  
2 35% 70% Median
3 13% 35%  
4 9% 22%  
5 8% 13%  
6 2% 5%  
7 1.0% 3% Last Result
8 1.0% 2%  
9 0.6% 1.0%  
10 0.1% 0.4%  
11 0.1% 0.3%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 0.8% 99.9%  
5 4% 99.1%  
6 3% 95% Last Result
7 11% 92%  
8 13% 81%  
9 22% 68% Median
10 46% 46%  
11 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 1.5% 100% Last Result
4 40% 98.5%  
5 31% 58% Median
6 16% 27%  
7 6% 10%  
8 4% 4%  
9 0.1% 0.5%  
10 0.3% 0.4%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 15% 100%  
1 19% 85%  
2 61% 65% Last Result, Median
3 4% 4%  
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 13% 91%  
2 15% 78%  
3 27% 63% Median
4 23% 36% Last Result
5 13% 13%  
6 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.3%  
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 99 100% 92–102 91–104 90–105 88–108
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 81 54% 77–87 75–87 73–89 70–91
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 61 58 0% 54–63 53–66 52–68 50–71
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 56 57 0% 52–62 52–64 51–65 45–67
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 54 0% 49–58 48–61 48–63 45–67
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 52 0% 47–57 47–59 46–62 44–65
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 52 0% 48–57 47–59 45–61 41–62
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 51 0% 47–56 46–57 44–60 39–60
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 51 0% 46–56 45–58 43–60 43–62
Fine Gael 49 49 0% 44–55 43–56 42–58 41–61
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 50 0% 46–55 45–56 42–57 39–58

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0.1% 100%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.2% 99.8%  
88 0.5% 99.6%  
89 0.5% 99.0%  
90 2% 98.6%  
91 2% 96%  
92 5% 95%  
93 3% 89% Last Result
94 3% 87%  
95 6% 84%  
96 10% 78%  
97 4% 68% Median
98 9% 65%  
99 8% 55%  
100 22% 47%  
101 14% 25%  
102 2% 12%  
103 4% 10%  
104 2% 5%  
105 1.5% 4%  
106 1.0% 2%  
107 0.6% 1.3%  
108 0.4% 0.8%  
109 0.3% 0.4%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.5% 99.8%  
71 0.3% 99.4%  
72 0.4% 99.1%  
73 2% 98.7%  
74 0.9% 97%  
75 3% 96%  
76 0.7% 93%  
77 5% 93%  
78 3% 88%  
79 7% 85%  
80 24% 78%  
81 5% 54% Median, Majority
82 5% 49%  
83 14% 43%  
84 8% 30%  
85 4% 22%  
86 6% 18%  
87 7% 12%  
88 1.4% 5%  
89 2% 4%  
90 0.7% 2%  
91 0.7% 0.9%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.6%  
51 1.1% 99.4%  
52 1.1% 98%  
53 6% 97%  
54 3% 91%  
55 12% 88%  
56 10% 76%  
57 4% 66%  
58 13% 62% Median
59 5% 49%  
60 5% 45%  
61 22% 40% Last Result
62 6% 18%  
63 2% 12%  
64 2% 10%  
65 1.3% 7%  
66 1.4% 6%  
67 1.3% 4%  
68 0.9% 3%  
69 0.5% 2%  
70 0.5% 2%  
71 1.0% 1.3%  
72 0.1% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.4% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.6%  
46 0.4% 99.4%  
47 0.2% 99.0%  
48 0.6% 98.8%  
49 0.2% 98%  
50 0.4% 98%  
51 2% 98%  
52 7% 96%  
53 4% 89%  
54 6% 86%  
55 17% 80%  
56 8% 62% Last Result
57 5% 55% Median
58 9% 49%  
59 6% 41%  
60 4% 34%  
61 15% 31%  
62 7% 16%  
63 4% 10%  
64 2% 6%  
65 2% 4%  
66 1.4% 2%  
67 0.5% 0.9%  
68 0.3% 0.4%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.7%  
46 0.5% 99.5%  
47 1.2% 98.9%  
48 5% 98%  
49 9% 93%  
50 10% 84%  
51 5% 74%  
52 14% 69%  
53 4% 56% Median
54 8% 51%  
55 3% 43%  
56 18% 40%  
57 8% 22%  
58 4% 14% Last Result
59 2% 9%  
60 2% 7%  
61 0.9% 5%  
62 1.3% 5%  
63 0.7% 3%  
64 0.5% 2%  
65 0.6% 2%  
66 0.3% 1.4%  
67 0.9% 1.1%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 0.3% 99.6%  
45 1.1% 99.3%  
46 2% 98%  
47 11% 96%  
48 8% 85%  
49 6% 77%  
50 12% 72%  
51 6% 60% Median
52 9% 54%  
53 2% 45%  
54 19% 43%  
55 4% 24%  
56 3% 20% Last Result
57 7% 17%  
58 3% 10%  
59 2% 7%  
60 1.0% 5%  
61 1.2% 4%  
62 0.5% 3%  
63 0.7% 2%  
64 0.3% 2%  
65 0.9% 1.2%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.9%  
41 0.4% 99.5%  
42 0.3% 99.1%  
43 0.6% 98.8%  
44 0.3% 98%  
45 1.0% 98%  
46 0.4% 97%  
47 2% 97%  
48 9% 95%  
49 4% 86%  
50 19% 82%  
51 5% 63%  
52 9% 57% Median
53 6% 48% Last Result
54 10% 43%  
55 12% 33%  
56 3% 21%  
57 9% 18%  
58 3% 9%  
59 2% 6%  
60 1.2% 4%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.3% 0.6%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.9%  
40 0.5% 99.5%  
41 0.3% 99.0%  
42 0.6% 98.7%  
43 0.4% 98%  
44 0.9% 98%  
45 0.9% 97%  
46 4% 96%  
47 2% 92%  
48 22% 90%  
49 7% 68%  
50 10% 61% Median
51 5% 50% Last Result
52 9% 46%  
53 14% 37%  
54 3% 23%  
55 9% 20%  
56 4% 11%  
57 2% 7%  
58 1.1% 4%  
59 0.6% 3%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.2% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 2% 99.6%  
44 2% 97%  
45 4% 95%  
46 4% 91%  
47 9% 87%  
48 7% 78%  
49 5% 71%  
50 12% 66%  
51 10% 54% Last Result, Median
52 3% 44%  
53 4% 40%  
54 4% 37%  
55 22% 33%  
56 4% 11%  
57 1.0% 7%  
58 2% 6%  
59 1.2% 4%  
60 0.6% 3%  
61 1.0% 2%  
62 0.4% 0.9%  
63 0.2% 0.5%  
64 0.1% 0.3%  
65 0% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 0.5% 99.8%  
42 3% 99.2%  
43 3% 96%  
44 3% 93%  
45 9% 90%  
46 9% 80%  
47 3% 72%  
48 9% 69%  
49 14% 59% Last Result, Median
50 2% 46%  
51 5% 43%  
52 3% 39%  
53 18% 36%  
54 3% 18%  
55 8% 15%  
56 2% 6%  
57 0.9% 5%  
58 2% 4%  
59 1.2% 2%  
60 0.3% 1.1%  
61 0.4% 0.8%  
62 0.1% 0.4%  
63 0% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.6% 99.8%  
40 0.5% 99.2%  
41 0.4% 98.8%  
42 2% 98%  
43 0.7% 96%  
44 0.6% 96%  
45 3% 95%  
46 11% 92% Last Result
47 5% 82%  
48 5% 77%  
49 19% 72%  
50 11% 53% Median
51 10% 43%  
52 8% 33%  
53 6% 25%  
54 6% 19%  
55 8% 13%  
56 2% 5%  
57 3% 3%  
58 0.4% 0.7%  
59 0.3% 0.3%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations