Opinion Poll by Ipsos MRBI for Irish Times, 6 December 2016
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fianna Fáil | 24.3% | 30.0% | 28.3–31.7% | 27.9–32.2% | 27.5–32.7% | 26.7–33.5% |
| Fine Gael | 25.5% | 27.0% | 25.4–28.7% | 25.0–29.2% | 24.6–29.6% | 23.8–30.4% |
| Sinn Féin | 13.8% | 17.0% | 15.7–18.5% | 15.3–18.9% | 15.0–19.2% | 14.4–20.0% |
| Independent | 15.9% | 8.4% | 7.5–9.5% | 7.2–9.8% | 7.0–10.1% | 6.5–10.7% |
| Labour Party | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.2–7.0% | 5.0–7.3% | 4.8–7.5% | 4.4–8.0% |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 1.9–4.5% |
| Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 1.9–4.5% |
| Social Democrats | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.2–3.3% |
| Independents 4 Change | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fianna Fáil | 44 | 55 | 52–59 | 51–59 | 51–60 | 49–61 |
| Fine Gael | 49 | 54 | 48–57 | 47–58 | 44–59 | 43–60 |
| Sinn Féin | 23 | 33 | 29–35 | 28–37 | 28–38 | 26–38 |
| Independent | 19 | 3 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–8 |
| Labour Party | 7 | 6 | 1–8 | 1–10 | 1–10 | 1–14 |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit | 6 | 3 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 0–6 | 0–9 |
| Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 2 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–3 |
| Social Democrats | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 1–4 |
| Independents 4 Change | 4 | 2 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
Fianna Fáil
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 51 | 8% | 98% | |
| 52 | 2% | 91% | |
| 53 | 5% | 89% | |
| 54 | 25% | 83% | |
| 55 | 19% | 58% | Median |
| 56 | 3% | 39% | |
| 57 | 5% | 37% | |
| 58 | 6% | 31% | |
| 59 | 21% | 25% | |
| 60 | 3% | 4% | |
| 61 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 44 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 46 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 47 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 48 | 5% | 95% | |
| 49 | 4% | 90% | Last Result |
| 50 | 4% | 86% | |
| 51 | 9% | 81% | |
| 52 | 16% | 72% | |
| 53 | 6% | 57% | |
| 54 | 25% | 51% | Median |
| 55 | 4% | 26% | |
| 56 | 12% | 22% | |
| 57 | 3% | 10% | |
| 58 | 4% | 8% | |
| 59 | 2% | 4% | |
| 60 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 28 | 7% | 99.0% | |
| 29 | 4% | 92% | |
| 30 | 4% | 88% | |
| 31 | 3% | 84% | |
| 32 | 12% | 80% | |
| 33 | 24% | 68% | Median |
| 34 | 28% | 44% | |
| 35 | 10% | 16% | |
| 36 | 0.8% | 7% | |
| 37 | 2% | 6% | |
| 38 | 3% | 4% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Independent
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 74% | 99.9% | Median |
| 4 | 10% | 26% | |
| 5 | 11% | 16% | |
| 6 | 3% | 5% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 8 | 1.3% | 1.5% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 11% | 99.7% | |
| 2 | 5% | 89% | |
| 3 | 3% | 84% | |
| 4 | 19% | 81% | |
| 5 | 8% | 62% | |
| 6 | 30% | 53% | Median |
| 7 | 10% | 23% | Last Result |
| 8 | 8% | 13% | |
| 9 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 10 | 3% | 5% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 14 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Solidarity–People Before Profit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 2 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 3 | 62% | 96% | Median |
| 4 | 11% | 34% | |
| 5 | 15% | 23% | |
| 6 | 6% | 7% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 9 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 35% | 100% | |
| 1 | 19% | 65% | Median |
| 2 | 44% | 45% | Last Result |
| 3 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Social Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 1 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 2 | 5% | 98.5% | |
| 3 | 77% | 93% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 17% | 17% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Independents 4 Change
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22% | 100% | |
| 1 | 12% | 78% | |
| 2 | 34% | 67% | Median |
| 3 | 2% | 33% | |
| 4 | 31% | 31% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael | 93 | 108 | 100% | 105–113 | 103–115 | 102–115 | 100–116 |
| Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin | 67 | 88 | 99.6% | 85–92 | 83–94 | 82–97 | 81–97 |
| Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats | 56 | 64 | 0% | 62–70 | 60–71 | 60–72 | 58–75 |
| Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 53 | 61 | 0% | 59–67 | 58–68 | 57–69 | 54–72 |
| Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats | 61 | 63 | 0% | 57–68 | 56–69 | 55–69 | 53–71 |
| Fianna Fáil – Labour Party | 51 | 60 | 0% | 57–65 | 57–67 | 56–68 | 53–70 |
| Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 58 | 60 | 0% | 54–64 | 53–66 | 52–66 | 50–68 |
| Fine Gael – Labour Party | 56 | 59 | 0% | 52–62 | 51–65 | 50–66 | 48–67 |
| Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 46 | 57 | 0% | 53–61 | 53–61 | 53–61 | 50–63 |
| Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 51 | 54 | 0% | 50–58 | 48–60 | 46–60 | 44–62 |
| Fine Gael | 49 | 54 | 0% | 48–57 | 47–58 | 44–59 | 43–60 |
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 101 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 102 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 103 | 2% | 96% | |
| 104 | 2% | 94% | |
| 105 | 3% | 92% | |
| 106 | 2% | 88% | |
| 107 | 22% | 86% | |
| 108 | 27% | 65% | |
| 109 | 10% | 38% | Median |
| 110 | 9% | 28% | |
| 111 | 3% | 18% | |
| 112 | 4% | 16% | |
| 113 | 3% | 11% | |
| 114 | 1.2% | 8% | |
| 115 | 7% | 7% | |
| 116 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 0.9% | 99.6% | Majority |
| 82 | 1.4% | 98.7% | |
| 83 | 4% | 97% | |
| 84 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 85 | 4% | 92% | |
| 86 | 7% | 88% | |
| 87 | 29% | 81% | |
| 88 | 8% | 53% | Median |
| 89 | 16% | 45% | |
| 90 | 5% | 29% | |
| 91 | 10% | 24% | |
| 92 | 5% | 14% | |
| 93 | 2% | 8% | |
| 94 | 2% | 6% | |
| 95 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 96 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 97 | 3% | 3% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 59 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 60 | 3% | 98% | |
| 61 | 2% | 95% | |
| 62 | 4% | 93% | |
| 63 | 26% | 89% | |
| 64 | 18% | 63% | |
| 65 | 11% | 44% | Median |
| 66 | 8% | 34% | |
| 67 | 8% | 25% | |
| 68 | 2% | 17% | |
| 69 | 4% | 15% | |
| 70 | 4% | 12% | |
| 71 | 4% | 7% | |
| 72 | 2% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 75 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 54 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 56 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 57 | 2% | 98% | |
| 58 | 2% | 96% | |
| 59 | 10% | 94% | |
| 60 | 25% | 84% | |
| 61 | 15% | 60% | |
| 62 | 11% | 45% | Median |
| 63 | 10% | 34% | |
| 64 | 8% | 24% | |
| 65 | 3% | 17% | |
| 66 | 1.2% | 14% | |
| 67 | 6% | 12% | |
| 68 | 4% | 7% | |
| 69 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 72 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 51 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 52 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 55 | 2% | 98% | |
| 56 | 2% | 96% | |
| 57 | 7% | 94% | |
| 58 | 3% | 86% | |
| 59 | 4% | 83% | |
| 60 | 4% | 79% | |
| 61 | 16% | 75% | Last Result |
| 62 | 3% | 59% | |
| 63 | 27% | 56% | |
| 64 | 7% | 29% | Median |
| 65 | 2% | 22% | |
| 66 | 4% | 20% | |
| 67 | 4% | 16% | |
| 68 | 4% | 12% | |
| 69 | 6% | 7% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 71 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 55 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 56 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 57 | 9% | 97% | |
| 58 | 3% | 88% | |
| 59 | 18% | 86% | |
| 60 | 31% | 68% | |
| 61 | 7% | 37% | Median |
| 62 | 5% | 30% | |
| 63 | 5% | 25% | |
| 64 | 7% | 20% | |
| 65 | 5% | 13% | |
| 66 | 1.0% | 8% | |
| 67 | 4% | 7% | |
| 68 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 69 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 48 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 49 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 50 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 52 | 2% | 98% | |
| 53 | 2% | 96% | |
| 54 | 8% | 94% | |
| 55 | 3% | 86% | |
| 56 | 4% | 83% | |
| 57 | 5% | 79% | |
| 58 | 17% | 74% | Last Result |
| 59 | 6% | 58% | |
| 60 | 22% | 51% | |
| 61 | 7% | 29% | Median |
| 62 | 2% | 22% | |
| 63 | 3% | 20% | |
| 64 | 8% | 17% | |
| 65 | 0.7% | 9% | |
| 66 | 6% | 8% | |
| 67 | 2% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 47 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 48 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 49 | 0.5% | 98.5% | |
| 50 | 2% | 98% | |
| 51 | 1.5% | 96% | |
| 52 | 6% | 95% | |
| 53 | 3% | 89% | |
| 54 | 3% | 85% | |
| 55 | 4% | 83% | |
| 56 | 16% | 79% | Last Result |
| 57 | 5% | 63% | |
| 58 | 8% | 58% | |
| 59 | 3% | 50% | |
| 60 | 21% | 48% | Median |
| 61 | 9% | 26% | |
| 62 | 8% | 18% | |
| 63 | 0.7% | 10% | |
| 64 | 3% | 9% | |
| 65 | 2% | 6% | |
| 66 | 3% | 4% | |
| 67 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 52 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 53 | 9% | 98% | |
| 54 | 24% | 89% | |
| 55 | 6% | 65% | |
| 56 | 9% | 59% | Median |
| 57 | 15% | 51% | |
| 58 | 1.5% | 36% | |
| 59 | 12% | 34% | |
| 60 | 10% | 22% | |
| 61 | 10% | 12% | |
| 62 | 2% | 2% | |
| 63 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 45 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 46 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 47 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 48 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 49 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 50 | 9% | 94% | |
| 51 | 3% | 85% | Last Result |
| 52 | 3% | 82% | |
| 53 | 11% | 79% | |
| 54 | 33% | 68% | |
| 55 | 9% | 35% | Median |
| 56 | 11% | 27% | |
| 57 | 2% | 16% | |
| 58 | 5% | 14% | |
| 59 | 3% | 9% | |
| 60 | 5% | 6% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 44 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 46 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 47 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 48 | 5% | 95% | |
| 49 | 4% | 90% | Last Result |
| 50 | 4% | 86% | |
| 51 | 9% | 81% | |
| 52 | 16% | 72% | |
| 53 | 6% | 57% | |
| 54 | 25% | 51% | Median |
| 55 | 4% | 26% | |
| 56 | 12% | 22% | |
| 57 | 3% | 10% | |
| 58 | 4% | 8% | |
| 59 | 2% | 4% | |
| 60 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos MRBI
- Commissioner(s): Irish Times
- Fieldwork period: 6 December 2016
Calculations
- Sample size: 1200
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.66%