Opinion Poll by Behaviour & Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 13 December 2016

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 28.2% 26.2–30.0% 25.7–30.5% 25.2–31.0% 24.4–32.0%
Fine Gael 25.5% 26.1% 24.2–27.9% 23.7–28.4% 23.2–28.9% 22.4–29.8%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 19.2% 17.5–20.8% 17.0–21.3% 16.6–21.7% 15.9–22.6%
Independent 15.9% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.2% 6.0–9.5% 5.6–10.1%
Labour Party 6.6% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 3.9–6.3% 3.7–6.6% 3.4–7.1%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 3.1% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.4% 1.8–4.8%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 3.1% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.4% 1.8–4.8%
Social Democrats 3.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.3% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 44 56 52–59 51–59 49–60 48–60
Fine Gael 49 52 45–58 44–59 43–59 43–61
Sinn Féin 23 38 34–41 34–41 33–42 32–44
Independent 19 3 3–5 3–6 3–6 2–8
Labour Party 7 3 1–8 1–8 0–8 0–10
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 4 2–5 1–6 1–8 0–9
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 1 0–2 0–2 0–3 0–4
Social Democrats 3 1 0–2 0–3 0–3 0–4
Independents 4 Change 4 1 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Renua Ireland 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100% Last Result
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 2% 99.7%  
49 2% 98%  
50 1.2% 96%  
51 5% 95%  
52 6% 90%  
53 12% 84%  
54 8% 72%  
55 3% 63%  
56 12% 60% Median
57 18% 48%  
58 18% 30%  
59 8% 12%  
60 4% 4%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0% 99.8%  
42 0.3% 99.8%  
43 4% 99.5%  
44 3% 96%  
45 5% 93%  
46 6% 88%  
47 14% 82%  
48 2% 69%  
49 5% 66% Last Result
50 3% 61%  
51 7% 58%  
52 5% 51% Median
53 6% 46%  
54 4% 41%  
55 9% 37%  
56 10% 28%  
57 6% 18%  
58 5% 12%  
59 5% 8%  
60 1.2% 2%  
61 0.6% 0.9%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.8%  
32 1.2% 99.5%  
33 1.1% 98%  
34 21% 97%  
35 12% 77%  
36 8% 65%  
37 6% 57%  
38 7% 51% Median
39 20% 44%  
40 11% 24%  
41 10% 13%  
42 2% 4%  
43 0.8% 1.3%  
44 0.5% 0.6%  
45 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100%  
2 1.5% 99.7%  
3 58% 98% Median
4 26% 40%  
5 7% 14%  
6 6% 7%  
7 0.5% 1.0%  
8 0.3% 0.5%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 27% 97%  
2 16% 71%  
3 13% 55% Median
4 4% 42%  
5 5% 38%  
6 9% 33%  
7 12% 23% Last Result
8 10% 12%  
9 1.0% 2%  
10 0.6% 0.8%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100%  
1 8% 99.0%  
2 5% 91%  
3 28% 86%  
4 29% 58% Median
5 23% 29%  
6 1.4% 5% Last Result
7 1.1% 4%  
8 1.4% 3%  
9 1.3% 1.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 21% 100%  
1 30% 79% Median
2 45% 49% Last Result
3 4% 4%  
4 0.7% 0.7%  
5 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 25% 100%  
1 42% 75% Median
2 27% 33%  
3 5% 6% Last Result
4 1.2% 1.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 27% 100%  
1 28% 73% Median
2 11% 45%  
3 1.2% 34%  
4 32% 33% Last Result
5 1.3% 1.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Last Result, Median
1 12% 12%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael 93 107 100% 102–113 101–113 100–114 98–116
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 94 99.9% 87–98 85–98 84–99 83–101
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 61 0% 57–68 55–69 55–70 53–70
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 61 0% 56–66 55–68 53–68 52–68
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 59 0% 55–65 53–66 53–66 51–67
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 58 0% 52–64 51–66 50–66 48–68
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 57 0% 51–62 49–64 49–65 47–66
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 55 0% 49–61 48–63 48–64 45–65
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 57 0% 52–61 51–61 50–61 49–62
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 53 0% 47–59 46–59 45–60 44–63
Fine Gael 49 52 0% 45–58 44–59 43–59 43–61

Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 100%  
97 0.2% 99.9%  
98 0.5% 99.7%  
99 0.7% 99.2%  
100 1.5% 98.5%  
101 6% 97%  
102 4% 91%  
103 13% 86%  
104 9% 74%  
105 4% 65%  
106 6% 61%  
107 7% 55%  
108 11% 49% Median
109 5% 37%  
110 5% 33%  
111 8% 28%  
112 8% 20%  
113 7% 11%  
114 4% 5%  
115 0.4% 1.0%  
116 0.4% 0.6%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9% Majority
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.4% 99.7%  
84 2% 99.3%  
85 2% 97%  
86 1.3% 95%  
87 10% 93%  
88 4% 84%  
89 7% 79%  
90 2% 73%  
91 10% 70%  
92 5% 60%  
93 3% 55%  
94 8% 52% Median
95 10% 44%  
96 8% 33%  
97 9% 25%  
98 11% 16%  
99 3% 5%  
100 0.6% 2%  
101 0.8% 1.1%  
102 0.1% 0.3%  
103 0% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 0.3% 99.7%  
54 0.7% 99.3%  
55 4% 98.6%  
56 2% 95% Last Result
57 3% 93%  
58 8% 90%  
59 5% 82%  
60 10% 76%  
61 23% 66% Median
62 6% 43%  
63 9% 37%  
64 10% 29%  
65 3% 18%  
66 2% 15%  
67 1.0% 13%  
68 6% 12%  
69 3% 6%  
70 3% 3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9%  
52 0.5% 99.7%  
53 3% 99.1% Last Result
54 1.3% 96%  
55 2% 95%  
56 8% 93%  
57 3% 85%  
58 10% 82%  
59 8% 71%  
60 13% 63% Median
61 14% 50%  
62 10% 36%  
63 7% 26%  
64 4% 19%  
65 2% 15%  
66 3% 13%  
67 4% 10%  
68 6% 6%  
69 0.4% 0.5%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 99.9%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 0.4% 99.7% Last Result
52 0.8% 99.3%  
53 4% 98.5%  
54 3% 95%  
55 7% 91%  
56 7% 85%  
57 4% 77%  
58 14% 73%  
59 17% 59% Median
60 12% 42%  
61 8% 30%  
62 4% 22%  
63 2% 18%  
64 4% 16%  
65 6% 12%  
66 6% 7%  
67 0.6% 0.8%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 0.7% 99.6%  
49 1.1% 98.9%  
50 3% 98%  
51 5% 95%  
52 8% 91%  
53 5% 82%  
54 4% 77%  
55 7% 74%  
56 7% 66%  
57 6% 59% Median
58 11% 54%  
59 8% 43%  
60 4% 35%  
61 3% 32% Last Result
62 8% 28%  
63 10% 20%  
64 2% 10%  
65 3% 8%  
66 3% 6%  
67 1.4% 2%  
68 0.4% 0.7%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 0.8% 99.6%  
48 0.9% 98.9%  
49 3% 98%  
50 4% 95%  
51 3% 91%  
52 11% 88%  
53 5% 77%  
54 8% 72%  
55 8% 64%  
56 5% 56% Median
57 7% 50%  
58 7% 43% Last Result
59 6% 36%  
60 7% 30%  
61 7% 23%  
62 6% 16%  
63 2% 10%  
64 3% 8%  
65 2% 5%  
66 2% 2%  
67 0.2% 0.5%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.7% 99.8%  
46 0.6% 99.1%  
47 0.8% 98%  
48 6% 98%  
49 2% 92%  
50 11% 89%  
51 4% 78%  
52 6% 75%  
53 9% 68%  
54 6% 59%  
55 5% 53% Median
56 6% 49% Last Result
57 5% 43%  
58 8% 38%  
59 10% 30%  
60 3% 20%  
61 7% 17%  
62 2% 10%  
63 3% 8%  
64 3% 5%  
65 1.2% 2%  
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.6% 99.7%  
50 2% 99.1%  
51 3% 97%  
52 4% 94%  
53 5% 90%  
54 9% 85%  
55 9% 76%  
56 5% 67%  
57 13% 62% Median
58 15% 49%  
59 13% 34%  
60 11% 21%  
61 8% 10%  
62 2% 2%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.8%  
44 0.4% 99.7%  
45 4% 99.4%  
46 3% 95%  
47 7% 92%  
48 6% 85%  
49 12% 79%  
50 4% 68%  
51 5% 63% Last Result
52 3% 58%  
53 9% 55% Median
54 3% 46%  
55 5% 43%  
56 12% 38%  
57 5% 26%  
58 4% 20%  
59 12% 16%  
60 2% 4%  
61 0.8% 2%  
62 0.6% 1.2%  
63 0.4% 0.6%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0% 99.8%  
42 0.3% 99.8%  
43 4% 99.5%  
44 3% 96%  
45 5% 93%  
46 6% 88%  
47 14% 82%  
48 2% 69%  
49 5% 66% Last Result
50 3% 61%  
51 7% 58%  
52 5% 51% Median
53 6% 46%  
54 4% 41%  
55 9% 37%  
56 10% 28%  
57 6% 18%  
58 5% 12%  
59 5% 8%  
60 1.2% 2%  
61 0.6% 0.9%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations