Opinion Poll by Behaviour & Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 21 January 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 28.7% 26.8–30.6% 26.3–31.2% 25.8–31.7% 25.0–32.6%
Fine Gael 25.5% 22.7% 21.0–24.5% 20.5–25.1% 20.1–25.5% 19.3–26.4%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 16.8% 15.3–18.5% 14.9–19.0% 14.5–19.4% 13.9–20.2%
Independent 15.9% 12.5% 11.2–14.0% 10.8–14.4% 10.5–14.8% 9.9–15.5%
Labour Party 6.6% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.7–6.5% 3.3–7.0%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.7–6.5% 3.3–7.0%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 2.9% 2.3–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.2% 1.8–4.7%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.6% 1.2–2.3% 1.1–2.5% 1.0–2.7% 0.8–3.0%
Social Democrats 3.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.9% 0.4–2.2%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.1% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.0–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 44 52 52–54 49–57 48–57 48–60
Fine Gael 49 40 40–44 39–45 38–45 37–48
Sinn Féin 23 36 33–36 32–36 32–36 27–38
Independent 19 13 13–16 12–16 12–17 9–17
Labour Party 7 2 0–2 0–3 0–3 0–5
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 9 7–10 6–10 6–10 6–10
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–3
Independents 4 Change 4 5 2–5 2–5 0–5 0–5
Social Democrats 3 1 1–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100% Last Result
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 5% 99.7%  
49 0.2% 95%  
50 2% 95%  
51 1.1% 93%  
52 55% 92% Median
53 23% 37%  
54 6% 15%  
55 0.5% 9%  
56 2% 9%  
57 5% 7%  
58 0.9% 2%  
59 0.2% 0.8%  
60 0.2% 0.6%  
61 0.1% 0.4%  
62 0.3% 0.3%  
63 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0.4% 99.9%  
37 0.5% 99.5%  
38 4% 99.0%  
39 0.8% 95%  
40 55% 95% Median
41 21% 40%  
42 4% 19%  
43 1.0% 15%  
44 6% 14%  
45 6% 8%  
46 0.1% 2%  
47 0.2% 2%  
48 1.2% 2%  
49 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100% Last Result
24 0% 99.8%  
25 0.1% 99.8%  
26 0.1% 99.7%  
27 1.1% 99.6%  
28 0.3% 98.6%  
29 0.1% 98%  
30 0.1% 98%  
31 0.2% 98%  
32 3% 98%  
33 5% 95%  
34 26% 90%  
35 9% 64%  
36 53% 55% Median
37 1.1% 2%  
38 0.3% 0.5%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0.1% 99.9%  
8 0.2% 99.7%  
9 0.4% 99.6%  
10 1.0% 99.2%  
11 0.4% 98%  
12 3% 98%  
13 48% 95% Median
14 6% 47%  
15 27% 41%  
16 11% 14%  
17 3% 3%  
18 0.4% 0.4%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 23% 90%  
2 60% 66% Median
3 5% 6%  
4 1.0% 2%  
5 0.1% 0.6%  
6 0.1% 0.4%  
7 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
8 0% 0.2%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0.3% 99.9%  
6 8% 99.6% Last Result
7 5% 91%  
8 6% 86%  
9 52% 80% Median
10 29% 29%  
11 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100%  
1 40% 98.9%  
2 58% 59% Last Result, Median
3 0.6% 0.6%  
4 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0.7% 96%  
2 22% 95%  
3 2% 73%  
4 9% 71% Last Result
5 62% 62% Median
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100%  
1 55% 92% Median
2 10% 38%  
3 28% 28% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael 93 92 100% 92–97 92–99 92–102 89–104
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 88 99.7% 87–88 83–91 83–91 81–94
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 57 0% 55–59 54–59 54–61 54–66
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 56 0% 55–58 52–58 52–59 52–65
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 54 0% 53–55 50–58 50–59 50–61
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 54 0% 53–57 51–57 50–58 50–63
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 45 0% 45–50 43–50 42–51 39–53
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 44 0% 43–48 42–49 39–49 39–52
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 42 0% 42–46 41–48 38–48 38–50
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 42 0% 41–46 40–46 39–46 38–50
Fine Gael 49 40 0% 40–44 39–45 38–45 37–48

Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.9%  
89 0.2% 99.6%  
90 0.3% 99.4%  
91 0.3% 99.1%  
92 61% 98.8% Median
93 0.5% 38% Last Result
94 21% 37%  
95 5% 17%  
96 1.2% 11%  
97 0.2% 10%  
98 1.0% 10%  
99 4% 9%  
100 0.4% 5%  
101 1.2% 4%  
102 1.4% 3%  
103 0% 2%  
104 1.1% 2%  
105 0% 0.4%  
106 0.2% 0.3%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0% 99.9%  
78 0% 99.9%  
79 0% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.9%  
81 0.3% 99.7% Majority
82 0.3% 99.4%  
83 6% 99.0%  
84 0.5% 93%  
85 0.3% 92%  
86 2% 92%  
87 31% 90%  
88 51% 60% Median
89 3% 9%  
90 0.7% 6%  
91 3% 5%  
92 0.1% 2%  
93 0.1% 2%  
94 2% 2%  
95 0.2% 0.4%  
96 0% 0.2%  
97 0.2% 0.2%  
98 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0% 99.9%  
51 0% 99.9%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 6% 99.8%  
55 4% 94%  
56 0.6% 90% Last Result
57 52% 89% Median
58 25% 37%  
59 8% 13%  
60 0.3% 5%  
61 3% 4%  
62 0.4% 2%  
63 0.2% 1.2%  
64 0.2% 1.0%  
65 0.2% 0.8%  
66 0.3% 0.6%  
67 0% 0.3%  
68 0.2% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0% 99.9%  
50 0% 99.9%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 5% 99.8%  
53 1.4% 95% Last Result
54 0.9% 94%  
55 31% 93%  
56 47% 62% Median
57 2% 14%  
58 9% 12%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.1% 2%  
61 0.5% 2%  
62 0.2% 1.0%  
63 0.2% 0.8%  
64 0.1% 0.7%  
65 0.1% 0.6%  
66 0.3% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100% Last Result
47 0% 99.9%  
48 0% 99.9%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 5% 99.8%  
51 0.4% 95%  
52 2% 95%  
53 8% 93%  
54 67% 85% Median
55 8% 17%  
56 1.2% 10%  
57 2% 9%  
58 5% 7%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.2% 0.8%  
61 0.2% 0.6%  
62 0.1% 0.4%  
63 0.3% 0.3%  
64 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0% 99.9%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 5% 99.9%  
51 2% 95% Last Result
52 0.5% 94%  
53 4% 93%  
54 75% 89% Median
55 1.1% 15%  
56 1.2% 14%  
57 10% 12%  
58 1.0% 3%  
59 0.2% 2%  
60 0.5% 1.5%  
61 0.3% 1.0%  
62 0.1% 0.7%  
63 0.1% 0.6%  
64 0% 0.5%  
65 0.3% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.6% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.4%  
41 0.5% 99.1%  
42 2% 98.7%  
43 5% 96%  
44 0.4% 91%  
45 51% 91% Median
46 23% 39%  
47 3% 16%  
48 0.2% 13%  
49 0.5% 12%  
50 9% 12%  
51 2% 3%  
52 0.5% 1.0%  
53 0.2% 0.5%  
54 0% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.3%  
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 3% 99.9%  
40 0.6% 97%  
41 0.9% 96%  
42 1.1% 96%  
43 28% 94%  
44 50% 66% Median
45 2% 16%  
46 3% 15%  
47 0.4% 12%  
48 5% 12%  
49 5% 7%  
50 0.1% 1.1%  
51 0.5% 1.0%  
52 0.3% 0.5%  
53 0% 0.3%  
54 0% 0.2%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0% Last Result

Fine Gael – Labour Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 3% 99.8%  
39 0.7% 97%  
40 0.6% 96%  
41 1.2% 96%  
42 78% 94% Median
43 1.4% 17%  
44 1.4% 15%  
45 2% 14%  
46 5% 12%  
47 0.3% 7%  
48 5% 6%  
49 0.3% 1.2%  
50 0.6% 0.9%  
51 0% 0.3%  
52 0% 0.3%  
53 0% 0.3%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 0.1% 99.7%  
38 0.2% 99.6%  
39 3% 99.4%  
40 1.1% 96%  
41 8% 95%  
42 67% 87% Median
43 0.3% 19%  
44 5% 19%  
45 0.4% 14%  
46 11% 13%  
47 0.2% 2%  
48 0.6% 2%  
49 1.2% 2%  
50 0.1% 0.5%  
51 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0.4% 99.9%  
37 0.5% 99.5%  
38 4% 99.0%  
39 0.8% 95%  
40 55% 95% Median
41 21% 40%  
42 4% 19%  
43 1.0% 15%  
44 6% 14%  
45 6% 8%  
46 0.1% 2%  
47 0.2% 2%  
48 1.2% 2%  
49 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations