Opinion Poll by Red C for The Sunday Business Post, 26 January 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 27.2% 25.2–28.9% 24.8–29.4% 24.3–29.8% 23.5–30.7%
Fine Gael 25.5% 24.2% 22.3–25.8% 21.9–26.3% 21.5–26.7% 20.7–27.6%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 14.1% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–16.0% 12.0–16.3% 11.4–17.1%
Independent 15.9% 11.9% 10.6–13.3% 10.3–13.7% 10.0–14.0% 9.4–14.7%
Labour Party 6.6% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.4–7.0%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Social Democrats 3.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.7–2.8%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.3% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 44 54 52–56 50–57 48–58 46–59
Fine Gael 49 47 43–48 41–50 41–52 38–57
Sinn Féin 23 24 22–30 21–33 19–34 19–34
Independent 19 15 12–16 8–16 6–18 4–18
Labour Party 7 2 0–8 0–9 0–9 0–9
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 6 5–7 4–8 4–9 3–9
Social Democrats 3 5 4–5 4–7 3–8 3–8
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 3 2–4 2–4 1–4 1–6
Independents 4 Change 4 4 3–5 1–5 1–5 0–5
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0–2

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100% Last Result
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 0.6% 99.6%  
47 0.3% 99.0%  
48 1.4% 98.7%  
49 0.2% 97%  
50 3% 97%  
51 1.2% 94%  
52 7% 93%  
53 5% 86%  
54 44% 81% Median
55 23% 37%  
56 6% 14%  
57 4% 8%  
58 3% 4%  
59 0.8% 1.1%  
60 0.3% 0.3%  
61 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 1.2% 99.7%  
39 0.1% 98.5%  
40 0.5% 98%  
41 4% 98%  
42 3% 93%  
43 3% 91%  
44 5% 87%  
45 4% 82%  
46 16% 78%  
47 47% 61% Median
48 8% 15%  
49 1.4% 7% Last Result
50 1.0% 5%  
51 2% 5%  
52 0.6% 3%  
53 1.4% 2%  
54 0.1% 0.7%  
55 0% 0.6%  
56 0% 0.6%  
57 0.3% 0.6%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100%  
18 0.1% 99.9%  
19 3% 99.9%  
20 2% 97%  
21 2% 95%  
22 5% 93%  
23 1.1% 88% Last Result
24 47% 86% Median
25 2% 39%  
26 15% 37%  
27 4% 23%  
28 7% 19%  
29 2% 12%  
30 2% 10%  
31 1.3% 9%  
32 2% 8%  
33 0.8% 5%  
34 4% 5%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 0.5% 99.9%  
5 0.7% 99.4%  
6 2% 98.7%  
7 1.2% 97%  
8 2% 95%  
9 0.2% 94%  
10 0.5% 94%  
11 1.1% 93%  
12 7% 92%  
13 7% 85%  
14 11% 78%  
15 57% 67% Median
16 7% 10%  
17 0.1% 3%  
18 3% 3%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100%  
1 10% 83%  
2 50% 73% Median
3 3% 22%  
4 2% 19%  
5 1.3% 18%  
6 4% 16%  
7 3% 13% Last Result
8 1.3% 10%  
9 9% 9%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 2% 100%  
4 4% 98%  
5 16% 94%  
6 61% 77% Last Result, Median
7 9% 16%  
8 3% 7%  
9 3% 4%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 5% 100% Last Result
4 32% 95%  
5 54% 63% Median
6 3% 9%  
7 3% 7%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.1% 0.4%  
10 0.2% 0.3%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 5% 99.9%  
2 14% 95% Last Result
3 63% 81% Median
4 17% 18%  
5 0.8% 1.3%  
6 0.2% 0.6%  
7 0.4% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.3% 100%  
1 4% 98.7%  
2 3% 95%  
3 2% 91%  
4 68% 89% Last Result, Median
5 21% 21%  
6 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 1.2%  
2 1.1% 1.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael 93 101 100% 95–103 94–105 93–106 91–110
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 78 30% 77–83 76–86 74–88 71–90
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 64 0% 61–70 60–71 59–72 57–73
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 59 0% 57–66 56–67 54–67 52–69
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 56 0% 54–63 53–64 51–64 50–67
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 57 0% 53–60 51–62 48–63 47–65
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 57 0% 55–59 53–59 51–60 48–62
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 52 0% 50–56 45–57 43–59 42–61
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 49 0% 46–53 43–55 41–56 39–60
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 50 0% 46–51 43–53 43–55 41–59
Fine Gael 49 47 0% 43–48 41–50 41–52 38–57

Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.8%  
90 0.1% 99.7%  
91 1.2% 99.6%  
92 0.5% 98%  
93 2% 98% Last Result
94 1.4% 96%  
95 5% 95%  
96 1.0% 90%  
97 3% 89%  
98 2% 86%  
99 7% 84%  
100 4% 78%  
101 59% 73% Median
102 2% 14%  
103 3% 12%  
104 1.3% 8%  
105 4% 7%  
106 1.1% 3%  
107 0.1% 1.5%  
108 0.5% 1.4%  
109 0% 0.9%  
110 0.6% 0.9%  
111 0.2% 0.3%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0.3% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.7%  
72 0.1% 99.3%  
73 0.1% 99.3%  
74 2% 99.2%  
75 0.7% 97%  
76 4% 96%  
77 8% 92%  
78 42% 84% Median
79 4% 42%  
80 8% 38%  
81 13% 30% Majority
82 5% 17%  
83 6% 12%  
84 0.5% 6%  
85 0.5% 6%  
86 0.4% 5%  
87 2% 5%  
88 1.3% 3%  
89 1.2% 2%  
90 0.8% 0.9%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.7% Last Result
57 0.1% 99.5%  
58 2% 99.5%  
59 0.9% 98%  
60 6% 97%  
61 2% 91%  
62 1.3% 89%  
63 17% 87%  
64 46% 70% Median
65 3% 24%  
66 2% 21%  
67 3% 19%  
68 2% 16%  
69 2% 14%  
70 4% 11%  
71 4% 8%  
72 3% 3%  
73 0.5% 0.8%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.1% 99.8%  
52 0.2% 99.7%  
53 2% 99.5% Last Result
54 0.6% 98%  
55 2% 97%  
56 4% 95%  
57 3% 91%  
58 7% 88%  
59 60% 81% Median
60 0.6% 21%  
61 3% 20%  
62 1.3% 18%  
63 3% 16%  
64 1.1% 13%  
65 2% 12%  
66 3% 10%  
67 6% 7%  
68 0.1% 0.7%  
69 0.4% 0.6%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0% 99.7%  
49 0.1% 99.7%  
50 2% 99.6%  
51 0.4% 98% Last Result
52 2% 97%  
53 5% 95%  
54 2% 90%  
55 15% 88%  
56 50% 73% Median
57 2% 23%  
58 2% 21%  
59 2% 19%  
60 3% 18%  
61 2% 15%  
62 3% 13%  
63 0.8% 10%  
64 9% 9%  
65 0.2% 0.8%  
66 0% 0.7%  
67 0.5% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0% 99.9%  
47 0.4% 99.9%  
48 3% 99.4%  
49 1.3% 97%  
50 0.1% 95%  
51 1.2% 95%  
52 1.3% 94%  
53 4% 93%  
54 14% 89%  
55 2% 76%  
56 4% 73%  
57 44% 69% Median
58 5% 25%  
59 5% 20%  
60 6% 15%  
61 4% 9% Last Result
62 0.5% 5%  
63 2% 5%  
64 2% 2%  
65 0.4% 0.8%  
66 0.1% 0.4%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0.3% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.6%  
49 0.7% 99.5%  
50 0.2% 98.8%  
51 1.2% 98.6%  
52 0.9% 97%  
53 3% 96%  
54 1.4% 93%  
55 4% 92%  
56 5% 87%  
57 49% 83% Median
58 14% 34%  
59 17% 20%  
60 0.9% 3%  
61 2% 2%  
62 0.4% 0.6%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.2% 100%  
42 1.1% 99.8%  
43 3% 98.7%  
44 0.5% 96%  
45 0.5% 95%  
46 0.7% 95%  
47 0.8% 94%  
48 2% 93%  
49 1.2% 92%  
50 17% 90%  
51 3% 73%  
52 48% 70% Median
53 3% 22%  
54 3% 19%  
55 3% 17%  
56 8% 14%  
57 2% 6%  
58 0.2% 4% Last Result
59 3% 4%  
60 0.3% 1.0%  
61 0.3% 0.7%  
62 0.3% 0.4%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 1.0% 99.8%  
40 0.1% 98.8%  
41 3% 98.7%  
42 0.3% 96%  
43 0.8% 95%  
44 0.5% 95%  
45 1.3% 94%  
46 14% 93%  
47 5% 79%  
48 2% 74%  
49 48% 72% Median
50 4% 24%  
51 4% 20%  
52 3% 16%  
53 6% 13%  
54 1.3% 7%  
55 2% 6%  
56 2% 4% Last Result
57 1.3% 2%  
58 0.1% 0.7%  
59 0.1% 0.6%  
60 0.4% 0.5%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.1% 99.8%  
41 1.1% 99.7%  
42 0.8% 98.6%  
43 4% 98%  
44 2% 94%  
45 2% 92%  
46 3% 91%  
47 8% 88%  
48 6% 80%  
49 4% 74%  
50 57% 70% Median
51 7% 14% Last Result
52 2% 7%  
53 0.6% 5%  
54 0.9% 5%  
55 2% 4%  
56 0.7% 1.4%  
57 0.1% 0.7%  
58 0.1% 0.6%  
59 0.4% 0.5%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 1.2% 99.7%  
39 0.1% 98.5%  
40 0.5% 98%  
41 4% 98%  
42 3% 93%  
43 3% 91%  
44 5% 87%  
45 4% 82%  
46 16% 78%  
47 47% 61% Median
48 8% 15%  
49 1.4% 7% Last Result
50 1.0% 5%  
51 2% 5%  
52 0.6% 3%  
53 1.4% 2%  
54 0.1% 0.7%  
55 0% 0.6%  
56 0% 0.6%  
57 0.3% 0.6%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations