Opinion Poll by Behaviour & Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 8 February 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 32.0% 30.0–33.9% 29.5–34.5% 29.1–35.0% 28.2–35.9%
Fine Gael 25.5% 21.0% 19.3–22.7% 18.9–23.2% 18.5–23.6% 17.7–24.5%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 19.0% 17.4–20.7% 17.0–21.1% 16.6–21.6% 15.9–22.4%
Independent 15.9% 8.5% 7.4–9.8% 7.1–10.1% 6.9–10.4% 6.4–11.1%
Labour Party 6.6% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.8–7.4% 4.6–7.7% 4.2–8.2%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 3.0% 2.4–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.8%
Social Democrats 3.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.5%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.5%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.6–1.9% 0.4–2.2%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.1% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.0–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 44 59 59–61 59–62 59–62 56–63
Fine Gael 49 40 40–42 36–45 36–45 33–47
Sinn Féin 23 39 37–39 36–40 35–41 33–41
Independent 19 5 4–5 4–6 3–7 3–9
Labour Party 7 9 6–9 1–9 1–10 1–12
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 5 3–5 3–5 2–6 1–9
Social Democrats 3 3 3 3–4 3–4 1–4
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 0 0 0–1 0–2 0–2
Independents 4 Change 4 0 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–4
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100% Last Result
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.8%  
57 0.6% 99.5%  
58 0.9% 98.9%  
59 77% 98% Median
60 9% 21%  
61 5% 11%  
62 5% 6%  
63 0.6% 1.1%  
64 0.5% 0.5%  
65 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 0.1% 99.6%  
33 0.1% 99.5%  
34 0.7% 99.4%  
35 0.4% 98.6%  
36 3% 98%  
37 1.4% 95%  
38 1.4% 93%  
39 1.0% 92%  
40 70% 91% Median
41 4% 21%  
42 7% 16%  
43 2% 10%  
44 0.8% 8%  
45 6% 7%  
46 0.5% 1.1%  
47 0.4% 0.5%  
48 0% 0.2%  
49 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 99.9%  
33 1.0% 99.9%  
34 0.9% 98.8%  
35 0.9% 98%  
36 2% 97%  
37 8% 95%  
38 10% 87%  
39 69% 78% Median
40 4% 8%  
41 3% 4%  
42 0.2% 0.4%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 3% 100%  
4 11% 97%  
5 78% 86% Median
6 3% 7%  
7 4% 5%  
8 0.3% 0.9%  
9 0.4% 0.6%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 6% 99.7%  
2 0.9% 94%  
3 0.5% 93%  
4 0.3% 92%  
5 2% 92%  
6 3% 90%  
7 6% 87% Last Result
8 5% 82%  
9 74% 77% Median
10 2% 3%  
11 0.5% 1.3%  
12 0.4% 0.8%  
13 0.3% 0.5%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 2% 99.6%  
2 0.7% 98%  
3 7% 97%  
4 3% 90%  
5 82% 87% Median
6 3% 5% Last Result
7 0.9% 2%  
8 0.3% 0.9%  
9 0.7% 0.7%  
10 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.7% 100%  
2 0.8% 99.3%  
3 89% 98.5% Last Result, Median
4 10% 10%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Median
1 4% 8%  
2 4% 4% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 79% 100% Median
1 4% 21%  
2 4% 17%  
3 6% 13%  
4 7% 7% Last Result
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael 93 99 100% 99–103 98–105 96–105 94–107
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 98 100% 97–99 96–101 95–103 93–103
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 71 0% 69–72 65–74 65–74 64–77
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 68 0% 66–68 61–71 61–71 60–74
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 68 0% 66–68 61–70 61–71 60–74
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 59 0% 59–61 59–62 59–62 57–64
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 52 0% 50–53 48–54 46–55 43–58
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 49 0% 46–50 45–51 43–52 41–55
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 49 0% 46–49 45–50 43–52 40–55
Fine Gael 49 40 0% 40–42 36–45 36–45 33–47
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 40 0% 40–44 36–45 36–45 33–47

Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
94 0.7% 99.7%  
95 0.5% 98.9%  
96 1.0% 98%  
97 2% 97%  
98 3% 96%  
99 69% 92% Median
100 3% 23%  
101 7% 20%  
102 3% 13%  
103 2% 10%  
104 0.9% 8%  
105 7% 8%  
106 0.3% 0.9%  
107 0.2% 0.5%  
108 0.1% 0.3%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100% Majority
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.8%  
93 0.3% 99.7%  
94 1.2% 99.4%  
95 1.1% 98%  
96 2% 97%  
97 13% 95%  
98 70% 81% Median
99 3% 12%  
100 3% 8%  
101 1.1% 5%  
102 0.8% 4%  
103 3% 3%  
104 0.2% 0.2%  
105 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100% Last Result
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.6% 99.7%  
65 6% 99.1%  
66 0.7% 94%  
67 0.5% 93%  
68 0.7% 92%  
69 2% 92%  
70 5% 89%  
71 73% 84% Median
72 4% 11%  
73 1.5% 7%  
74 4% 5%  
75 0.6% 2%  
76 0.1% 1.0%  
77 0.6% 0.9%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0.6% 99.9%  
61 5% 99.4%  
62 0.3% 94%  
63 0.9% 94%  
64 0.5% 93%  
65 0.7% 92%  
66 2% 92%  
67 6% 90%  
68 73% 83% Median
69 3% 10%  
70 1.3% 6%  
71 4% 5%  
72 0.4% 1.4%  
73 0.1% 1.0%  
74 0.6% 0.9%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0.6% 99.9%  
61 5% 99.3%  
62 0.5% 94%  
63 0.9% 93%  
64 0.7% 92%  
65 2% 92%  
66 5% 90%  
67 4% 85%  
68 71% 81% Median
69 3% 9%  
70 0.9% 6%  
71 4% 5%  
72 0.3% 1.2%  
73 0.1% 0.9%  
74 0.6% 0.8%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.8%  
57 0.2% 99.6%  
58 1.2% 99.4%  
59 74% 98% Median
60 9% 24%  
61 8% 15%  
62 5% 8%  
63 1.5% 2%  
64 0.8% 1.0%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0% 99.9%  
42 0.1% 99.8%  
43 0.2% 99.7%  
44 0.5% 99.5%  
45 1.0% 99.0%  
46 0.9% 98%  
47 0.6% 97%  
48 3% 96%  
49 3% 93%  
50 7% 91%  
51 0.9% 83%  
52 70% 82% Median
53 5% 12%  
54 4% 7%  
55 0.8% 3%  
56 1.0% 2%  
57 0.2% 0.9%  
58 0.6% 0.7%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.1% 99.8%  
40 0.1% 99.7%  
41 0.6% 99.5%  
42 1.1% 99.0%  
43 0.9% 98%  
44 0.9% 97%  
45 3% 96%  
46 8% 93%  
47 2% 85%  
48 2% 83%  
49 69% 81% Median
50 5% 12%  
51 4% 7%  
52 1.1% 3%  
53 0.9% 2%  
54 0.2% 0.9%  
55 0.6% 0.7%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0% Last Result

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.1% 99.7%  
40 0.2% 99.6%  
41 0.6% 99.4%  
42 1.0% 98.8%  
43 1.3% 98%  
44 1.3% 96%  
45 5% 95%  
46 7% 91%  
47 1.5% 84%  
48 2% 83%  
49 71% 81% Median
50 5% 10%  
51 2% 4%  
52 1.0% 3%  
53 0.9% 2%  
54 0.2% 0.8%  
55 0.5% 0.6%  
56 0% 0.1% Last Result
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 0.1% 99.6%  
33 0.1% 99.5%  
34 0.7% 99.4%  
35 0.4% 98.6%  
36 3% 98%  
37 1.4% 95%  
38 1.4% 93%  
39 1.0% 92%  
40 70% 91% Median
41 4% 21%  
42 7% 16%  
43 2% 10%  
44 0.8% 8%  
45 6% 7%  
46 0.5% 1.1%  
47 0.4% 0.5%  
48 0% 0.2%  
49 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 0.1% 99.7%  
33 0.1% 99.5%  
34 0.7% 99.5%  
35 0.4% 98.8%  
36 3% 98%  
37 1.0% 95%  
38 0.8% 94%  
39 0.7% 93%  
40 70% 92% Median
41 6% 23%  
42 5% 17%  
43 2% 12%  
44 3% 11%  
45 6% 8%  
46 0.6% 1.3%  
47 0.5% 0.7%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0.1% Last Result
52 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations