Opinion Poll by Millward Brown for The Sunday Independent, 16 February 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fianna Fáil | 24.3% | 33.0% | 31.1–35.0% | 30.6–35.6% | 30.1–36.1% | 29.2–37.0% |
| Fine Gael | 25.5% | 25.0% | 23.3–26.9% | 22.8–27.4% | 22.4–27.8% | 21.6–28.7% |
| Sinn Féin | 13.8% | 20.0% | 18.4–21.7% | 18.0–22.2% | 17.6–22.6% | 16.9–23.5% |
| Labour Party | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.2–7.1% | 4.9–7.5% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.3% |
| Independent | 15.9% | 3.3% | 2.7–4.2% | 2.5–4.5% | 2.4–4.7% | 2.1–5.1% |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.9% | 2.3–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.8% |
| Social Democrats | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.5% |
| Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.5% |
| Independents 4 Change | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.2–1.1% | 0.1–1.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fianna Fáil | 44 | 59 | 58–62 | 58–63 | 57–63 | 55–63 |
| Fine Gael | 49 | 48 | 44–52 | 42–53 | 42–54 | 40–56 |
| Sinn Féin | 23 | 39 | 35–41 | 34–42 | 34–43 | 33–44 |
| Labour Party | 7 | 7 | 4–10 | 3–11 | 3–11 | 2–12 |
| Independent | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit | 6 | 3 | 2–5 | 1–6 | 0–6 | 0–9 |
| Social Democrats | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 1–4 | 0–4 |
| Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 2 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Independents 4 Change | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
Fianna Fáil
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 1.2% | 99.5% | |
| 57 | 2% | 98% | |
| 58 | 34% | 96% | |
| 59 | 26% | 62% | Median |
| 60 | 19% | 35% | |
| 61 | 5% | 16% | |
| 62 | 6% | 12% | |
| 63 | 5% | 6% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 41 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 42 | 4% | 98% | |
| 43 | 3% | 94% | |
| 44 | 9% | 92% | |
| 45 | 9% | 83% | |
| 46 | 9% | 74% | |
| 47 | 13% | 65% | |
| 48 | 20% | 52% | Median |
| 49 | 9% | 32% | Last Result |
| 50 | 5% | 23% | |
| 51 | 4% | 17% | |
| 52 | 5% | 13% | |
| 53 | 5% | 8% | |
| 54 | 2% | 3% | |
| 55 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 1.2% | 99.6% | |
| 34 | 5% | 98% | |
| 35 | 6% | 93% | |
| 36 | 7% | 87% | |
| 37 | 4% | 80% | |
| 38 | 8% | 76% | |
| 39 | 28% | 68% | Median |
| 40 | 17% | 40% | |
| 41 | 15% | 23% | |
| 42 | 6% | 8% | |
| 43 | 2% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 6% | 98% | |
| 4 | 14% | 92% | |
| 5 | 7% | 78% | |
| 6 | 6% | 71% | |
| 7 | 15% | 64% | Last Result, Median |
| 8 | 24% | 50% | |
| 9 | 14% | 26% | |
| 10 | 3% | 12% | |
| 11 | 8% | 9% | |
| 12 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Independent
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Solidarity–People Before Profit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 4% | 97% | |
| 2 | 13% | 93% | |
| 3 | 43% | 80% | Median |
| 4 | 9% | 37% | |
| 5 | 23% | 29% | |
| 6 | 3% | 5% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 9 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Social Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 2 | 4% | 97% | |
| 3 | 73% | 93% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 20% | 20% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 89% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 7% | 11% | |
| 2 | 5% | 5% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Independents 4 Change
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael | 93 | 106 | 100% | 103–112 | 102–112 | 101–113 | 99–116 |
| Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin | 67 | 98 | 100% | 95–101 | 94–102 | 94–102 | 92–103 |
| Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats | 56 | 69 | 0% | 66–73 | 66–74 | 65–75 | 64–76 |
| Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 53 | 66 | 0% | 63–70 | 62–71 | 62–72 | 61–73 |
| Fianna Fáil – Labour Party | 51 | 66 | 0% | 63–70 | 62–71 | 62–71 | 61–73 |
| Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 46 | 59 | 0% | 58–62 | 58–63 | 57–63 | 56–64 |
| Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats | 61 | 58 | 0% | 54–62 | 51–63 | 51–63 | 50–65 |
| Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 58 | 55 | 0% | 50–59 | 48–60 | 48–60 | 46–62 |
| Fine Gael – Labour Party | 56 | 55 | 0% | 50–59 | 48–60 | 48–60 | 46–62 |
| Fine Gael | 49 | 48 | 0% | 44–52 | 42–53 | 42–54 | 40–56 |
| Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 51 | 48 | 0% | 44–52 | 43–53 | 42–54 | 40–56 |
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 101 | 3% | 98% | |
| 102 | 4% | 95% | |
| 103 | 4% | 92% | |
| 104 | 13% | 88% | |
| 105 | 10% | 75% | |
| 106 | 19% | 66% | |
| 107 | 12% | 46% | Median |
| 108 | 6% | 34% | |
| 109 | 6% | 28% | |
| 110 | 5% | 22% | |
| 111 | 6% | 17% | |
| 112 | 6% | 11% | |
| 113 | 2% | 5% | |
| 114 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 115 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 116 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 92 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 93 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 94 | 8% | 98% | |
| 95 | 3% | 90% | |
| 96 | 5% | 87% | |
| 97 | 20% | 82% | |
| 98 | 21% | 62% | Median |
| 99 | 21% | 42% | |
| 100 | 8% | 20% | |
| 101 | 5% | 12% | |
| 102 | 5% | 7% | |
| 103 | 2% | 2% | |
| 104 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 65 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 66 | 8% | 96% | |
| 67 | 9% | 88% | |
| 68 | 10% | 79% | |
| 69 | 20% | 69% | Median |
| 70 | 19% | 49% | |
| 71 | 9% | 29% | |
| 72 | 7% | 20% | |
| 73 | 7% | 13% | |
| 74 | 3% | 5% | |
| 75 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 76 | 2% | 2% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 62 | 4% | 98% | |
| 63 | 8% | 94% | |
| 64 | 7% | 86% | |
| 65 | 11% | 78% | |
| 66 | 21% | 67% | Median |
| 67 | 17% | 46% | |
| 68 | 9% | 29% | |
| 69 | 8% | 21% | |
| 70 | 7% | 13% | |
| 71 | 3% | 5% | |
| 72 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 73 | 2% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 61 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 62 | 4% | 98% | |
| 63 | 8% | 93% | |
| 64 | 9% | 85% | |
| 65 | 10% | 76% | |
| 66 | 24% | 66% | Median |
| 67 | 16% | 43% | |
| 68 | 9% | 27% | |
| 69 | 6% | 18% | |
| 70 | 6% | 12% | |
| 71 | 3% | 5% | |
| 72 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 73 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 57 | 2% | 98% | |
| 58 | 31% | 96% | |
| 59 | 25% | 66% | Median |
| 60 | 21% | 41% | |
| 61 | 6% | 19% | |
| 62 | 7% | 13% | |
| 63 | 5% | 6% | |
| 64 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 51 | 4% | 98% | |
| 52 | 0.9% | 94% | |
| 53 | 2% | 94% | |
| 54 | 7% | 91% | |
| 55 | 9% | 85% | |
| 56 | 6% | 75% | |
| 57 | 13% | 69% | |
| 58 | 11% | 56% | Median |
| 59 | 12% | 46% | |
| 60 | 17% | 34% | |
| 61 | 6% | 17% | Last Result |
| 62 | 2% | 11% | |
| 63 | 7% | 9% | |
| 64 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 47 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 48 | 4% | 98% | |
| 49 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 50 | 5% | 93% | |
| 51 | 4% | 88% | |
| 52 | 8% | 84% | |
| 53 | 10% | 76% | |
| 54 | 9% | 66% | |
| 55 | 11% | 57% | Median |
| 56 | 13% | 45% | |
| 57 | 16% | 32% | |
| 58 | 5% | 16% | Last Result |
| 59 | 3% | 11% | |
| 60 | 6% | 7% | |
| 61 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 47 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 48 | 4% | 98% | |
| 49 | 2% | 95% | |
| 50 | 5% | 92% | |
| 51 | 6% | 88% | |
| 52 | 6% | 82% | |
| 53 | 11% | 75% | |
| 54 | 10% | 64% | |
| 55 | 12% | 54% | Median |
| 56 | 13% | 43% | Last Result |
| 57 | 15% | 30% | |
| 58 | 4% | 15% | |
| 59 | 3% | 11% | |
| 60 | 5% | 7% | |
| 61 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 41 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 42 | 4% | 98% | |
| 43 | 3% | 94% | |
| 44 | 9% | 92% | |
| 45 | 9% | 83% | |
| 46 | 9% | 74% | |
| 47 | 13% | 65% | |
| 48 | 20% | 52% | Median |
| 49 | 9% | 32% | Last Result |
| 50 | 5% | 23% | |
| 51 | 4% | 17% | |
| 52 | 5% | 13% | |
| 53 | 5% | 8% | |
| 54 | 2% | 3% | |
| 55 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 41 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 42 | 3% | 98% | |
| 43 | 4% | 96% | |
| 44 | 8% | 92% | |
| 45 | 8% | 84% | |
| 46 | 9% | 76% | |
| 47 | 11% | 67% | |
| 48 | 22% | 55% | Median |
| 49 | 9% | 34% | |
| 50 | 6% | 25% | |
| 51 | 6% | 19% | Last Result |
| 52 | 5% | 13% | |
| 53 | 5% | 8% | |
| 54 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 55 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Millward Brown
- Commissioner(s): The Sunday Independent
- Fieldwork period: 16 February 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 960
- Simulations done: 1,048,575
- Error estimate: 1.59%