Opinion Poll by Red C for The Sunday Business Post, 23 February 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 26.2% 24.3–27.8% 23.8–28.3% 23.4–28.8% 22.6–29.7%
Fine Gael 25.5% 24.2% 22.3–25.8% 21.9–26.3% 21.5–26.7% 20.7–27.6%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 19.2% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.2% 16.7–21.6% 16.0–22.4%
Independent 15.9% 8.5% 7.4–9.7% 7.1–10.0% 6.9–10.4% 6.4–11.0%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
Labour Party 6.6% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Social Democrats 3.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.7%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.3% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 44 49 46–54 44–54 43–56 41–59
Fine Gael 49 50 43–54 42–55 41–56 38–58
Sinn Féin 23 36 33–38 33–39 32–40 32–41
Independent 19 4 3–8 3–9 3–11 3–13
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 10 8–11 8–11 6–11 4–11
Labour Party 7 1 0–5 0–6 0–7 0–8
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 2 2–4 2–5 2–5 0–6
Social Democrats 3 4 3–4 3–5 3–6 3–8
Independents 4 Change 4 2 2–3 1–3 0–3 0–3
Renua Ireland 0 0 0–2 0–3 0–3 0–4

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.1% 99.8%  
40 0.2% 99.8%  
41 0.7% 99.6%  
42 0.7% 98.9%  
43 1.0% 98%  
44 4% 97% Last Result
45 2% 93%  
46 14% 91%  
47 17% 77%  
48 6% 60%  
49 11% 54% Median
50 6% 43%  
51 8% 37%  
52 6% 29%  
53 3% 23%  
54 15% 20%  
55 1.3% 4%  
56 0.9% 3%  
57 1.1% 2%  
58 0.5% 1.1%  
59 0.3% 0.6%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 0.3% 99.6%  
39 0.5% 99.2%  
40 0.9% 98.7%  
41 2% 98%  
42 2% 96%  
43 12% 94%  
44 3% 82%  
45 4% 79%  
46 5% 75%  
47 5% 71%  
48 6% 66%  
49 8% 61% Last Result
50 14% 52% Median
51 6% 38%  
52 14% 32%  
53 8% 19%  
54 2% 10%  
55 5% 8%  
56 1.4% 3%  
57 0.8% 2%  
58 0.7% 1.1%  
59 0.4% 0.4%  
60 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 3% 99.8%  
33 18% 97%  
34 11% 79%  
35 10% 68%  
36 33% 58% Median
37 12% 25%  
38 6% 13%  
39 3% 6%  
40 3% 4%  
41 1.1% 1.2%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 31% 100%  
4 20% 69% Median
5 7% 48%  
6 14% 41%  
7 15% 28%  
8 5% 12%  
9 3% 8%  
10 1.2% 5%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.4% 2%  
13 1.2% 1.4%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.9% 100%  
5 1.3% 99.1%  
6 1.0% 98% Last Result
7 2% 97%  
8 16% 95%  
9 7% 79%  
10 38% 72% Median
11 34% 34%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100%  
1 48% 89% Median
2 17% 41%  
3 6% 24%  
4 5% 19%  
5 8% 13%  
6 2% 5%  
7 1.2% 4% Last Result
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 2% 99.4%  
2 57% 98% Last Result, Median
3 8% 41%  
4 28% 33%  
5 5% 5%  
6 0.2% 0.5%  
7 0.4% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 31% 99.8% Last Result
4 61% 68% Median
5 5% 8%  
6 1.2% 3%  
7 1.0% 2%  
8 0.3% 0.5%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 2% 97%  
2 59% 95% Median
3 36% 36%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 64% 100% Last Result, Median
1 25% 36%  
2 4% 11%  
3 5% 7%  
4 1.0% 1.5%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael 93 98 100% 93–103 92–103 90–105 86–107
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 84 91% 81–90 80–91 79–92 77–94
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats 56 58 0% 54–62 52–64 51–65 48–68
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats 61 57 0% 50–62 50–63 50–64 46–65
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party 53 54 0% 49–58 49–60 47–61 44–64
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party 58 54 0% 47–58 47–59 45–60 43–62
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 52 0% 48–56 47–58 46–59 43–63
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 51 0% 47–56 45–57 44–59 42–60
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 52 0% 45–57 45–58 43–59 41–61
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 51 0% 45–55 45–57 42–57 38–60
Fine Gael 49 50 0% 43–54 42–55 41–56 38–58

Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.4% 99.8%  
87 0.4% 99.4%  
88 1.1% 99.0%  
89 0.4% 98%  
90 0.7% 98%  
91 2% 97%  
92 3% 95%  
93 3% 92% Last Result
94 3% 90%  
95 3% 87%  
96 6% 84%  
97 24% 78%  
98 13% 54%  
99 6% 41% Median
100 7% 35%  
101 7% 28%  
102 10% 21%  
103 7% 11%  
104 2% 5%  
105 1.1% 3%  
106 1.1% 2%  
107 0.4% 0.6%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.8%  
76 0.1% 99.7%  
77 0.5% 99.7%  
78 0.4% 99.2%  
79 2% 98.8%  
80 5% 97%  
81 3% 91% Majority
82 23% 88%  
83 12% 65%  
84 12% 53%  
85 4% 41% Median
86 5% 37%  
87 5% 32%  
88 5% 27%  
89 3% 22%  
90 12% 19%  
91 4% 7%  
92 2% 3%  
93 0.3% 0.8%  
94 0.2% 0.5%  
95 0.2% 0.3%  
96 0% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.4% 99.7%  
49 0.2% 99.3%  
50 0.5% 99.1%  
51 3% 98.6%  
52 2% 96%  
53 3% 94%  
54 9% 91%  
55 14% 82%  
56 4% 67% Last Result, Median
57 3% 63%  
58 17% 60%  
59 7% 43%  
60 7% 36%  
61 16% 29%  
62 6% 14%  
63 3% 8%  
64 2% 5%  
65 0.9% 3%  
66 1.2% 2%  
67 0.3% 0.8%  
68 0.3% 0.5%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.7%  
47 0.6% 99.5%  
48 0.6% 98.9%  
49 0.7% 98%  
50 11% 98%  
51 1.1% 87%  
52 2% 86%  
53 4% 84%  
54 3% 79%  
55 4% 76%  
56 8% 72%  
57 15% 64% Median
58 6% 49%  
59 4% 44%  
60 2% 40%  
61 20% 38% Last Result
62 8% 18%  
63 6% 9%  
64 3% 4%  
65 0.6% 1.0%  
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.3% 99.8%  
45 0.3% 99.5%  
46 0.4% 99.2%  
47 3% 98.8%  
48 0.7% 96%  
49 6% 95%  
50 7% 90%  
51 14% 82%  
52 5% 69% Median
53 5% 64% Last Result
54 15% 60%  
55 8% 44%  
56 6% 37%  
57 7% 30%  
58 15% 23%  
59 3% 8%  
60 1.4% 5%  
61 2% 4%  
62 1.0% 2%  
63 0.4% 0.9%  
64 0.4% 0.6%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.1% 99.7%  
43 0.3% 99.6%  
44 0.8% 99.2%  
45 0.9% 98%  
46 0.8% 97%  
47 11% 97%  
48 2% 85%  
49 3% 83%  
50 4% 80%  
51 3% 76%  
52 6% 73%  
53 14% 67% Median
54 9% 53%  
55 3% 43%  
56 3% 40%  
57 20% 37%  
58 8% 17% Last Result
59 6% 9%  
60 2% 4%  
61 0.9% 2%  
62 0.5% 0.8%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 0.3% 99.7%  
44 0.5% 99.4%  
45 0.4% 98.9%  
46 3% 98.6% Last Result
47 1.3% 96%  
48 6% 94%  
49 14% 88%  
50 16% 74%  
51 6% 57% Median
52 5% 52%  
53 13% 47%  
54 6% 34%  
55 4% 28%  
56 16% 24%  
57 2% 7%  
58 2% 5%  
59 2% 4%  
60 0.6% 2%  
61 0.5% 1.3%  
62 0.2% 0.7%  
63 0.2% 0.6%  
64 0.3% 0.4%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 0.7% 99.6%  
43 0.3% 98.9%  
44 1.2% 98.6%  
45 4% 97%  
46 1.1% 94%  
47 14% 93%  
48 10% 79%  
49 5% 69%  
50 9% 64% Median
51 7% 56% Last Result
52 9% 49%  
53 7% 40%  
54 6% 33%  
55 6% 27%  
56 15% 20%  
57 2% 6%  
58 1.0% 4%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.6% 0.8%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.5% 99.8%  
42 0.7% 99.3%  
43 1.5% 98.6%  
44 2% 97%  
45 11% 95%  
46 3% 84%  
47 2% 81%  
48 4% 78%  
49 4% 74%  
50 5% 70%  
51 6% 65% Last Result
52 15% 59% Median
53 9% 43%  
54 3% 34%  
55 4% 31%  
56 11% 27%  
57 9% 15%  
58 4% 7%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.6% 1.3%  
61 0.5% 0.6%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.3% 99.8%  
39 0.2% 99.5%  
40 0.4% 99.3%  
41 0.4% 99.0%  
42 1.3% 98.6%  
43 1.3% 97%  
44 0.9% 96%  
45 12% 95%  
46 2% 83%  
47 4% 81%  
48 5% 78%  
49 6% 73%  
50 6% 67%  
51 13% 61% Median
52 6% 48%  
53 13% 42%  
54 8% 29%  
55 11% 20%  
56 5% 10% Last Result
57 3% 5%  
58 0.7% 2%  
59 0.7% 1.4%  
60 0.5% 0.6%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 0.3% 99.6%  
39 0.5% 99.2%  
40 0.9% 98.7%  
41 2% 98%  
42 2% 96%  
43 12% 94%  
44 3% 82%  
45 4% 79%  
46 5% 75%  
47 5% 71%  
48 6% 66%  
49 8% 61% Last Result
50 14% 52% Median
51 6% 38%  
52 14% 32%  
53 8% 19%  
54 2% 10%  
55 5% 8%  
56 1.4% 3%  
57 0.8% 2%  
58 0.7% 1.1%  
59 0.4% 0.4%  
60 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations