Opinion Poll by Ipsos MRBI for Irish Times, 28 February 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 29.0% 27.4–30.7% 26.9–31.2% 26.5–31.6% 25.7–32.5%
Fine Gael 25.5% 28.0% 26.4–29.7% 25.9–30.2% 25.5–30.6% 24.8–31.4%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 21.0% 19.5–22.6% 19.1–23.0% 18.8–23.4% 18.1–24.2%
Independent 15.9% 7.6% 6.7–8.7% 6.4–9.0% 6.2–9.2% 5.8–9.8%
Labour Party 6.6% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.7%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 1.9–4.5%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 1.9–4.5%
Social Democrats 3.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.6% 0.4–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 44 56 52–58 52–59 51–59 49–59
Fine Gael 49 54 49–60 48–61 47–61 46–62
Sinn Féin 23 39 35–42 34–42 34–43 34–44
Independent 19 4 3–4 3–5 3–5 2–6
Labour Party 7 1 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–6
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 4 2–4 1–5 1–5 0–7
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–3
Social Democrats 3 0 0–2 0–3 0–3 0–4
Independents 4 Change 4 1 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100% Last Result
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.3% 99.9%  
49 0.5% 99.5%  
50 0.9% 99.0%  
51 3% 98%  
52 8% 95%  
53 11% 88%  
54 16% 77%  
55 6% 61%  
56 18% 54% Median
57 18% 37%  
58 11% 18%  
59 7% 7%  
60 0.2% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.7% 99.7%  
47 3% 98.9%  
48 4% 96%  
49 5% 91% Last Result
50 9% 87%  
51 8% 77%  
52 8% 69%  
53 7% 61%  
54 11% 54% Median
55 8% 44%  
56 8% 36%  
57 8% 28%  
58 6% 21%  
59 2% 15%  
60 6% 13%  
61 6% 7%  
62 0.3% 0.6%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 5% 99.7%  
35 13% 94%  
36 7% 81%  
37 4% 74%  
38 12% 70%  
39 12% 58% Median
40 20% 47%  
41 15% 27%  
42 7% 11%  
43 4% 4%  
44 0.5% 0.6%  
45 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.8% 100%  
3 15% 99.2%  
4 79% 84% Median
5 5% 6%  
6 0.9% 1.0%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 44% 100%  
1 37% 56% Median
2 9% 19%  
3 8% 10%  
4 1.3% 3%  
5 0.8% 1.4%  
6 0.4% 0.5%  
7 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
8 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.9% 100%  
1 7% 99.1%  
2 9% 92%  
3 8% 83%  
4 66% 75% Median
5 7% 9%  
6 1.4% 2% Last Result
7 0.2% 0.5%  
8 0.2% 0.3%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 31% 100%  
1 29% 69% Median
2 40% 41% Last Result
3 0.6% 0.8%  
4 0.1% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 62% 100% Median
1 18% 38%  
2 11% 19%  
3 7% 8% Last Result
4 1.0% 1.0%  
5 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 39% 100%  
1 34% 61% Median
2 10% 27%  
3 5% 18%  
4 12% 12% Last Result
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael 93 109 100% 106–114 105–115 105–115 103–115
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 94 100% 89–99 88–100 87–100 85–102
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 56 0% 52–62 51–63 50–64 48–65
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 58 0% 54–62 53–62 53–63 51–65
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 58 0% 54–61 53–62 53–62 51–64
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 56 0% 51–61 50–62 49–62 48–64
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 55 0% 50–61 49–61 48–62 47–63
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 55 0% 50–60 48–61 48–62 46–63
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 57 0% 53–60 53–60 52–61 50–61
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 57 0% 53–59 52–60 52–61 49–62
Fine Gael 49 54 0% 49–60 48–61 47–61 46–62

Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0.1% 100%  
102 0.2% 99.8%  
103 0.5% 99.7%  
104 1.1% 99.2%  
105 5% 98%  
106 11% 93%  
107 8% 82%  
108 21% 74%  
109 11% 53%  
110 12% 42% Median
111 7% 30%  
112 5% 23%  
113 4% 18%  
114 7% 14%  
115 6% 6%  
116 0.2% 0.3%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100% Majority
82 0% 100%  
83 0.2% 100%  
84 0.2% 99.8%  
85 0.3% 99.6%  
86 0.3% 99.3%  
87 2% 99.0%  
88 3% 97%  
89 8% 94%  
90 5% 86%  
91 7% 81%  
92 9% 74%  
93 10% 66%  
94 11% 56%  
95 5% 45% Median
96 14% 40%  
97 6% 26%  
98 10% 20%  
99 4% 10%  
100 5% 6%  
101 1.1% 2%  
102 0.5% 0.5%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.5% 99.8%  
49 1.1% 99.3%  
50 3% 98%  
51 3% 96%  
52 12% 93%  
53 5% 81%  
54 8% 76%  
55 13% 68%  
56 7% 55% Median
57 6% 48%  
58 8% 42%  
59 8% 35%  
60 5% 27%  
61 9% 22% Last Result
62 6% 14%  
63 5% 8%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.3% 0.7%  
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 0.5% 99.6%  
52 0.7% 99.1%  
53 4% 98%  
54 5% 95%  
55 10% 90%  
56 12% 80% Last Result
57 10% 68%  
58 13% 58% Median
59 14% 46%  
60 14% 32%  
61 6% 18%  
62 7% 12%  
63 2% 4%  
64 0.8% 2%  
65 0.4% 0.9%  
66 0.4% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 0.8% 99.5%  
52 0.8% 98.8%  
53 5% 98% Last Result
54 10% 93%  
55 12% 83%  
56 8% 70%  
57 10% 62%  
58 16% 53% Median
59 14% 37%  
60 12% 23%  
61 5% 11%  
62 4% 6%  
63 0.8% 1.4%  
64 0.5% 0.6%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.7% 99.7%  
49 2% 99.0%  
50 2% 97%  
51 5% 94%  
52 11% 89%  
53 6% 77%  
54 8% 71%  
55 12% 63%  
56 9% 51% Median
57 6% 42%  
58 4% 36% Last Result
59 11% 31%  
60 5% 20%  
61 8% 16%  
62 6% 8%  
63 1.1% 2%  
64 1.1% 1.4%  
65 0.1% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.5% 99.8%  
48 2% 99.3%  
49 3% 97%  
50 6% 95%  
51 5% 88% Last Result
52 10% 83%  
53 10% 73%  
54 11% 63%  
55 8% 52% Median
56 11% 44%  
57 4% 33%  
58 8% 29%  
59 4% 21%  
60 6% 16%  
61 7% 11%  
62 3% 4%  
63 0.8% 1.1%  
64 0.1% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.4% 99.9%  
47 0.9% 99.5%  
48 4% 98.6%  
49 3% 95%  
50 11% 92%  
51 6% 81%  
52 6% 76%  
53 8% 70%  
54 11% 62%  
55 9% 51% Median
56 3% 42% Last Result
57 11% 39%  
58 6% 28%  
59 6% 22%  
60 7% 17%  
61 6% 10%  
62 3% 4%  
63 0.5% 1.0%  
64 0.3% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.8% 99.8%  
51 1.3% 99.0%  
52 1.3% 98%  
53 8% 96%  
54 15% 88%  
55 14% 74%  
56 9% 59%  
57 10% 50% Median
58 17% 40%  
59 9% 23%  
60 9% 14%  
61 4% 4%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.5% 99.8%  
50 0.4% 99.3%  
51 1.2% 98.9% Last Result
52 4% 98%  
53 10% 93%  
54 12% 84%  
55 8% 72%  
56 11% 64%  
57 17% 53% Median
58 19% 36%  
59 9% 17%  
60 5% 8%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.5% 0.7%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.7% 99.7%  
47 3% 98.9%  
48 4% 96%  
49 5% 91% Last Result
50 9% 87%  
51 8% 77%  
52 8% 69%  
53 7% 61%  
54 11% 54% Median
55 8% 44%  
56 8% 36%  
57 8% 28%  
58 6% 21%  
59 2% 15%  
60 6% 13%  
61 6% 7%  
62 0.3% 0.6%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

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