Opinion Poll by Behaviour & Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 8 March 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 28.2% 26.3–30.1% 25.8–30.7% 25.4–31.1% 24.5–32.1%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 23.2% 21.4–25.0% 20.9–25.5% 20.5–25.9% 19.7–26.8%
Fine Gael 25.5% 22.2% 20.5–24.0% 20.0–24.5% 19.6–25.0% 18.8–25.8%
Independent 15.9% 7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.4–9.3% 6.2–9.6% 5.7–10.2%
Labour Party 6.6% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.8–7.4% 4.6–7.7% 4.3–8.3%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 2.0% 1.6–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.2% 1.1–3.6%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 2.0% 1.6–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.2% 1.1–3.6%
Social Democrats 3.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.1% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.0–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 44 58 53–59 52–60 51–60 48–61
Sinn Féin 23 43 41–46 40–48 40–49 39–50
Fine Gael 49 45 41–47 40–50 39–51 36–52
Independent 19 4 2–5 2–7 2–7 2–8
Labour Party 7 8 5–10 3–12 2–13 1–17
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 1 0–3 0–3 0–5 0–5
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 0 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
Social Democrats 3 1 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Independents 4 Change 4 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100% Last Result
45 0% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.7%  
48 0.1% 99.6%  
49 0.5% 99.4%  
50 0.5% 99.0%  
51 2% 98%  
52 3% 97%  
53 4% 93%  
54 3% 89%  
55 9% 86%  
56 12% 77%  
57 12% 65%  
58 38% 53% Median
59 10% 15%  
60 4% 5%  
61 2% 2%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0.2% 100%  
39 1.1% 99.7%  
40 8% 98.6%  
41 7% 90%  
42 19% 84%  
43 15% 65% Median
44 28% 50%  
45 9% 21%  
46 6% 12%  
47 0.5% 6%  
48 2% 6%  
49 3% 3%  
50 0.8% 0.8%  
51 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.1% 99.8%  
36 0.5% 99.7%  
37 0.8% 99.2%  
38 0.7% 98%  
39 2% 98%  
40 3% 96%  
41 5% 93%  
42 10% 88%  
43 15% 78%  
44 11% 63%  
45 24% 52% Median
46 15% 28%  
47 3% 13%  
48 3% 10%  
49 2% 7% Last Result
50 2% 5%  
51 2% 3%  
52 1.2% 2%  
53 0.2% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 10% 99.9%  
3 26% 90%  
4 48% 64% Median
5 6% 15%  
6 4% 9%  
7 4% 6%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.3% 0.4%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0.5% 99.9%  
2 3% 99.4%  
3 3% 97%  
4 2% 93%  
5 3% 91%  
6 9% 88%  
7 18% 79% Last Result
8 14% 61% Median
9 23% 47%  
10 17% 24%  
11 2% 7%  
12 3% 6%  
13 1.3% 3%  
14 0.8% 2%  
15 0.3% 1.2%  
16 0.2% 0.9%  
17 0.3% 0.8%  
18 0.1% 0.4%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 49% 100%  
1 9% 51% Median
2 25% 42%  
3 12% 17%  
4 2% 5%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
7 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 66% 100% Median
1 30% 34%  
2 3% 3% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 19% 100%  
1 62% 81% Median
2 2% 19%  
3 16% 17% Last Result
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 66% 100% Median
1 13% 34%  
2 2% 21%  
3 2% 19%  
4 16% 17% Last Result
5 1.0% 1.0%  
6 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael 93 102 100% 97–104 95–106 93–107 90–108
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 100 100% 97–103 95–103 94–104 92–106
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 67 0% 62–71 60–71 60–71 58–72
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 66 0% 60–68 59–68 58–69 57–70
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 65 0% 60–68 59–68 58–69 56–70
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 58 0% 54–59 52–60 51–61 48–62
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 54 0% 50–58 48–59 47–60 45–62
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 53 0% 49–56 47–58 46–59 43–61
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 53 0% 48–56 47–58 46–59 43–61
Fine Gael 49 45 0% 41–47 40–50 39–51 36–52
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 45 0% 41–48 40–50 39–51 36–52

Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.3% 99.9%  
89 0.1% 99.6%  
90 0.2% 99.5%  
91 0.6% 99.4%  
92 0.5% 98.8%  
93 1.0% 98% Last Result
94 1.4% 97%  
95 2% 96%  
96 2% 94%  
97 5% 92%  
98 6% 87%  
99 8% 81%  
100 9% 73%  
101 12% 64%  
102 11% 52%  
103 19% 41% Median
104 14% 22%  
105 2% 7%  
106 2% 5%  
107 3% 4%  
108 0.8% 0.9%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100% Majority
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.2% 99.8%  
92 0.4% 99.6%  
93 0.3% 99.2%  
94 2% 98.9%  
95 2% 97%  
96 3% 95%  
97 5% 91%  
98 10% 87%  
99 10% 77%  
100 25% 67%  
101 5% 42% Median
102 21% 37%  
103 12% 16%  
104 3% 5%  
105 1.0% 2%  
106 0.9% 1.1%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
57 0.1% 99.7%  
58 1.2% 99.6%  
59 0.4% 98%  
60 3% 98%  
61 4% 95%  
62 4% 90%  
63 3% 86%  
64 10% 83%  
65 5% 74%  
66 10% 69%  
67 22% 59% Median
68 14% 37%  
69 11% 23%  
70 1.3% 12%  
71 10% 11%  
72 0.6% 0.8%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 99.9% Last Result
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.7%  
57 1.4% 99.5%  
58 1.0% 98%  
59 4% 97%  
60 4% 94%  
61 4% 89%  
62 3% 86%  
63 10% 83%  
64 6% 73%  
65 8% 68%  
66 18% 60% Median
67 17% 41%  
68 20% 24%  
69 2% 4%  
70 1.4% 2%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.7%  
57 1.4% 99.4%  
58 2% 98%  
59 4% 96%  
60 4% 92%  
61 3% 88%  
62 10% 85%  
63 5% 75%  
64 5% 71%  
65 20% 65%  
66 8% 46% Median
67 16% 38%  
68 19% 22%  
69 2% 3%  
70 1.2% 1.3%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
47 0.1% 99.7%  
48 0.1% 99.6%  
49 0.5% 99.5%  
50 0.3% 99.0%  
51 1.3% 98.7%  
52 4% 97%  
53 3% 93%  
54 3% 90%  
55 9% 87%  
56 7% 78%  
57 15% 72%  
58 27% 56% Median
59 21% 30%  
60 5% 9%  
61 3% 4%  
62 1.3% 1.5%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 99.9%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.2% 99.8%  
45 0.3% 99.5%  
46 1.0% 99.2%  
47 2% 98%  
48 2% 96%  
49 4% 95%  
50 4% 91%  
51 9% 87%  
52 10% 78%  
53 10% 68%  
54 13% 58% Median
55 17% 45%  
56 11% 28%  
57 2% 17%  
58 9% 15%  
59 2% 6%  
60 2% 4%  
61 0.8% 2% Last Result
62 1.0% 1.4%  
63 0.2% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.3%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 99.9%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.3% 99.8%  
44 0.2% 99.5%  
45 0.6% 99.3%  
46 2% 98.6%  
47 2% 97%  
48 3% 94%  
49 4% 91%  
50 12% 87%  
51 10% 76%  
52 6% 66%  
53 16% 60% Median
54 16% 44%  
55 16% 28%  
56 3% 12%  
57 2% 8%  
58 3% 7% Last Result
59 3% 4%  
60 0.3% 0.8%  
61 0.3% 0.6%  
62 0.1% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 99.9%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.1% 99.8%  
43 0.5% 99.7%  
44 0.4% 99.3%  
45 1.3% 98.8%  
46 2% 98%  
47 3% 96%  
48 5% 93%  
49 7% 88%  
50 8% 81%  
51 10% 73%  
52 7% 63%  
53 24% 56% Median
54 6% 33%  
55 16% 27%  
56 3% 11% Last Result
57 2% 8%  
58 3% 6%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.3% 0.8%  
61 0.2% 0.5%  
62 0.1% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.1% 99.8%  
36 0.5% 99.7%  
37 0.8% 99.2%  
38 0.7% 98%  
39 2% 98%  
40 3% 96%  
41 5% 93%  
42 10% 88%  
43 15% 78%  
44 11% 63%  
45 24% 52% Median
46 15% 28%  
47 3% 13%  
48 3% 10%  
49 2% 7% Last Result
50 2% 5%  
51 2% 3%  
52 1.2% 2%  
53 0.2% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.1% 99.8%  
36 0.4% 99.7%  
37 0.8% 99.3%  
38 0.3% 98%  
39 1.4% 98%  
40 2% 97%  
41 5% 94%  
42 8% 89%  
43 12% 82%  
44 15% 69%  
45 24% 55% Median
46 6% 31%  
47 13% 25%  
48 4% 12%  
49 2% 8%  
50 2% 6%  
51 2% 4% Last Result
52 1.4% 2%  
53 0.2% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations