Opinion Poll by Red C for The Sunday Business Post, 24 March 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 25.9% 24.2–27.7% 23.7–28.3% 23.3–28.7% 22.5–29.6%
Fine Gael 25.5% 24.0% 22.2–25.7% 21.8–26.2% 21.4–26.6% 20.6–27.5%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 17.0% 15.5–18.5% 15.1–19.0% 14.7–19.4% 14.1–20.2%
Independent 15.9% 11.0% 9.8–12.3% 9.4–12.7% 9.2–13.0% 8.6–13.7%
Labour Party 6.6% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Social Democrats 3.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.7%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.7%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.1% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 44 51 49–54 49–56 49–56 46–59
Fine Gael 49 42 41–45 40–47 40–50 38–54
Sinn Féin 23 34 33–35 32–37 31–37 28–38
Independent 19 12 7–14 5–16 5–16 4–16
Labour Party 7 4 3–7 1–9 1–9 1–16
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 6 5–8 5–9 4–9 3–10
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 2 2–3 1–4 1–4 1–6
Social Democrats 3 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Independents 4 Change 4 4 2–5 0–5 0–5 0–5
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 99.9%  
41 0% 99.9%  
42 0% 99.9%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0% 99.8% Last Result
45 0.1% 99.8%  
46 0.2% 99.6%  
47 0.2% 99.5%  
48 0.3% 99.3%  
49 14% 99.0%  
50 30% 85%  
51 34% 54% Median
52 5% 20%  
53 5% 15%  
54 4% 10%  
55 0.8% 6%  
56 4% 6%  
57 0.3% 1.4%  
58 0.3% 1.1%  
59 0.7% 0.8%  
60 0% 0.2%  
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.1% 99.8%  
37 0.1% 99.6%  
38 1.2% 99.5%  
39 0.4% 98%  
40 7% 98%  
41 27% 91%  
42 29% 65% Median
43 22% 36%  
44 0.4% 13%  
45 6% 13%  
46 0.3% 7%  
47 2% 7%  
48 2% 5%  
49 0.5% 3% Last Result
50 0.9% 3%  
51 0.5% 2%  
52 0.4% 1.3%  
53 0% 1.0%  
54 0.8% 0.9%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.8%  
28 0.6% 99.8%  
29 1.2% 99.2%  
30 0.2% 98%  
31 1.4% 98%  
32 3% 96%  
33 10% 94%  
34 35% 84% Median
35 40% 49%  
36 4% 9%  
37 4% 5%  
38 1.0% 1.3%  
39 0.1% 0.3%  
40 0% 0.2%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 2% 99.9%  
5 3% 98%  
6 2% 95%  
7 5% 92%  
8 3% 87%  
9 1.2% 84%  
10 3% 83%  
11 4% 80%  
12 51% 76% Median
13 1.4% 25%  
14 16% 23%  
15 0.5% 7%  
16 7% 7%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 7% 99.9%  
2 2% 93%  
3 18% 91%  
4 25% 72% Median
5 2% 47%  
6 13% 45%  
7 25% 33% Last Result
8 2% 8%  
9 4% 6%  
10 0.3% 2%  
11 1.0% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.7%  
13 0.1% 0.6%  
14 0% 0.5%  
15 0% 0.5%  
16 0.1% 0.5%  
17 0.4% 0.4%  
18 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.1% 99.9%  
3 2% 99.8%  
4 2% 98%  
5 39% 96%  
6 46% 58% Last Result, Median
7 1.5% 12%  
8 2% 10%  
9 7% 8%  
10 0.7% 0.7%  
11 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 5% 99.9%  
2 82% 94% Last Result, Median
3 7% 12%  
4 5% 6%  
5 0.1% 1.1%  
6 0.8% 0.9%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 31% 100% Last Result
4 67% 69% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0.1% 0.3%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 2% 94%  
2 7% 92%  
3 0.4% 85%  
4 40% 85% Last Result, Median
5 45% 45%  
6 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael 93 92 100% 92–99 90–101 90–103 87–105
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 85 99.1% 84–88 83–89 83–90 80–92
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 61 0% 57–65 57–66 57–68 56–73
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 58 0% 54–62 54–62 54–65 52–70
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 56 0% 52–59 52–60 52–63 50–68
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 52 0% 51–57 51–58 51–60 48–63
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 53 0% 51–57 51–57 51–58 49–60
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 49 0% 48–53 47–54 47–56 44–59
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 46 0% 46–51 46–52 45–53 42–57
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 44 0% 43–48 42–50 42–53 40–56
Fine Gael 49 42 0% 41–45 40–47 40–50 38–54

Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.2% 99.8%  
86 0.1% 99.7%  
87 0.1% 99.6%  
88 0.1% 99.5%  
89 0.6% 99.4%  
90 7% 98.8%  
91 0.5% 92%  
92 62% 91%  
93 4% 29% Last Result, Median
94 7% 26%  
95 1.0% 19%  
96 1.3% 18%  
97 2% 17%  
98 3% 14%  
99 4% 11%  
100 0.7% 7%  
101 2% 7%  
102 2% 5%  
103 0.7% 3%  
104 0.7% 2%  
105 1.5% 2%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0% 99.8%  
77 0.1% 99.8%  
78 0% 99.7%  
79 0% 99.7%  
80 0.6% 99.7%  
81 0.2% 99.1% Majority
82 0.8% 98.9%  
83 4% 98%  
84 23% 94%  
85 48% 71% Median
86 6% 24%  
87 4% 18%  
88 7% 15%  
89 5% 8%  
90 0.8% 3%  
91 0.7% 2%  
92 1.0% 1.1%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.7%  
56 0.9% 99.7% Last Result
57 13% 98.8%  
58 1.2% 86%  
59 0.5% 84%  
60 26% 84%  
61 8% 58% Median
62 4% 50%  
63 6% 46%  
64 28% 40%  
65 3% 13%  
66 5% 10%  
67 0.3% 5%  
68 2% 4%  
69 0.9% 2%  
70 0.3% 1.1%  
71 0.1% 0.9%  
72 0% 0.8%  
73 0.5% 0.7%  
74 0% 0.2%  
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.7% 99.7%  
53 0.4% 99.0% Last Result
54 13% 98.7%  
55 1.3% 85%  
56 25% 84%  
57 2% 59% Median
58 11% 58%  
59 5% 47%  
60 30% 41%  
61 0.6% 11%  
62 6% 11%  
63 0.5% 5%  
64 1.0% 4%  
65 2% 3%  
66 0.9% 2%  
67 0.1% 0.9%  
68 0.1% 0.8%  
69 0.1% 0.7%  
70 0.4% 0.6%  
71 0% 0.2%  
72 0.2% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 99.9%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.7% 99.6%  
51 0.4% 99.0% Last Result
52 14% 98.5%  
53 2% 85%  
54 28% 83%  
55 2% 55% Median
56 8% 53%  
57 4% 45%  
58 27% 41%  
59 5% 14%  
60 5% 9%  
61 0.2% 4%  
62 0.6% 4%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.6% 1.5%  
65 0.1% 0.9%  
66 0.1% 0.8%  
67 0% 0.7%  
68 0.5% 0.7%  
69 0% 0.2%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0% 99.9%  
47 0% 99.9%  
48 0.8% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.1%  
50 0.7% 98.9%  
51 23% 98%  
52 26% 75% Median
53 2% 49%  
54 29% 47%  
55 5% 18%  
56 1.0% 13%  
57 4% 12%  
58 4% 8%  
59 0.4% 4%  
60 2% 4%  
61 0.2% 2% Last Result
62 0.1% 1.3%  
63 0.9% 1.2%  
64 0.1% 0.3%  
65 0% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0% 99.9%  
44 0% 99.9%  
45 0% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
47 0.1% 99.8%  
48 0.2% 99.7%  
49 0.2% 99.5%  
50 0.3% 99.3%  
51 14% 99.1%  
52 30% 85%  
53 32% 55% Median
54 5% 23%  
55 2% 17%  
56 2% 15%  
57 10% 13%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.3% 1.4%  
60 0.9% 1.1%  
61 0.1% 0.3%  
62 0% 0.2%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0% 99.9%  
44 0.5% 99.9%  
45 0.5% 99.4%  
46 0.3% 98.9%  
47 4% 98.6%  
48 43% 94% Median
49 3% 51%  
50 29% 48%  
51 5% 19%  
52 2% 14%  
53 5% 12%  
54 2% 7%  
55 1.0% 5%  
56 2% 4%  
57 0.5% 2%  
58 0.2% 1.5% Last Result
59 1.0% 1.2%  
60 0% 0.3%  
61 0% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.1% 99.8%  
41 0.1% 99.7%  
42 0.4% 99.6%  
43 0.3% 99.2%  
44 0.7% 99.0%  
45 2% 98%  
46 51% 97% Median
47 2% 46%  
48 26% 44%  
49 4% 17%  
50 2% 13%  
51 5% 11%  
52 1.1% 6%  
53 3% 5%  
54 0.3% 2%  
55 0.5% 2%  
56 0.2% 1.4% Last Result
57 1.0% 1.2%  
58 0% 0.2%  
59 0% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.2%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.8% 99.8%  
41 0.3% 99.0%  
42 7% 98.6%  
43 27% 92%  
44 33% 65% Median
45 18% 33%  
46 1.1% 15%  
47 3% 14%  
48 1.0% 11%  
49 3% 10%  
50 2% 6%  
51 2% 5% Last Result
52 0.3% 3%  
53 1.4% 3%  
54 0.2% 1.4%  
55 0.2% 1.2%  
56 0.8% 0.9%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.1% 99.8%  
37 0.1% 99.6%  
38 1.2% 99.5%  
39 0.4% 98%  
40 7% 98%  
41 27% 91%  
42 29% 65% Median
43 22% 36%  
44 0.4% 13%  
45 6% 13%  
46 0.3% 7%  
47 2% 7%  
48 2% 5%  
49 0.5% 3% Last Result
50 0.9% 3%  
51 0.5% 2%  
52 0.4% 1.3%  
53 0% 1.0%  
54 0.8% 0.9%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations