Opinion Poll by Behaviour and Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 11 April 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 28.6% 26.8–30.6% 26.2–31.1% 25.8–31.6% 24.9–32.5%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 27.7% 25.8–29.6% 25.3–30.1% 24.9–30.6% 24.0–31.5%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 17.8% 16.3–19.5% 15.9–20.0% 15.5–20.4% 14.8–21.2%
Independent 15.9% 8.3% 7.3–9.6% 7.0–10.0% 6.7–10.3% 6.2–10.9%
Labour Party 6.6% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.7–6.5% 3.4–7.0%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 2.0% 1.5–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.2% 1.1–3.5%
Social Democrats 3.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.2% 1.1–3.5%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 2.0% 1.5–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.2% 1.1–3.5%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.1% 0.7–1.6% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.1% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.0–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 57 54–60 52–61 51–62 49–64
Fianna Fáil 44 53 50–57 48–58 47–60 44–60
Sinn Féin 23 36 34–37 32–38 32–39 29–40
Independent 19 3 3–6 3–6 3–6 3–8
Labour Party 7 3 1–6 1–7 0–8 0–9
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 1 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–4
Social Democrats 3 3 3–4 3–4 2–4 1–4
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 0 0 0–1 0–2 0–2
Independents 4 Change 4 2 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.8%  
49 0.8% 99.7% Last Result
50 0.2% 98.9%  
51 2% 98.6%  
52 3% 96%  
53 1.3% 93%  
54 3% 92%  
55 7% 89%  
56 27% 82%  
57 15% 55% Median
58 7% 40%  
59 19% 33%  
60 6% 13%  
61 3% 8%  
62 3% 5%  
63 0.6% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.9%  
65 0.2% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.4% 99.8% Last Result
45 0.3% 99.4%  
46 0.8% 99.1%  
47 2% 98%  
48 2% 96%  
49 2% 94%  
50 5% 92%  
51 15% 88%  
52 10% 72%  
53 29% 62% Median
54 7% 33%  
55 7% 26%  
56 5% 19%  
57 5% 14%  
58 5% 9%  
59 1.1% 4%  
60 3% 3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 1.2% 99.8%  
30 0.4% 98.6%  
31 0.6% 98%  
32 4% 98%  
33 3% 94%  
34 14% 91%  
35 26% 77%  
36 36% 51% Median
37 7% 15%  
38 3% 8%  
39 4% 4%  
40 0.5% 0.8%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 53% 99.9% Median
4 21% 47%  
5 7% 25%  
6 16% 18%  
7 1.2% 2%  
8 0.6% 0.8%  
9 0.1% 0.3%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 9% 96%  
2 33% 87%  
3 5% 54% Median
4 25% 49%  
5 5% 25%  
6 12% 19%  
7 4% 7% Last Result
8 2% 3%  
9 0.6% 0.9%  
10 0.1% 0.3%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 19% 100%  
1 39% 81% Median
2 15% 42%  
3 22% 27%  
4 5% 5%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.0% 100%  
2 3% 99.0%  
3 72% 96% Last Result, Median
4 24% 24%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Median
1 6% 9%  
2 3% 3% Last Result
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 21% 100%  
1 20% 79%  
2 12% 59% Median
3 6% 47%  
4 40% 41% Last Result
5 1.5% 1.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 110 100% 108–114 106–114 106–116 104–117
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 89 98.5% 85–93 83–94 81–96 79–96
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 64 0% 60–68 59–68 57–70 54–73
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 60 0% 56–65 55–65 54–67 50–68
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 61 0% 56–64 55–65 53–66 51–69
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 61 0% 56–64 55–65 53–66 50–69
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 57 0% 53–61 52–62 51–64 47–65
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 57 0% 53–61 52–62 50–64 47–65
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 57 0% 54–60 52–62 51–63 49–65
Fine Gael 49 57 0% 54–60 52–61 51–62 49–64
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 53 0% 50–57 48–58 47–60 44–60

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.2% 99.8%  
104 0.3% 99.6%  
105 2% 99.3%  
106 3% 98%  
107 2% 94%  
108 7% 92%  
109 30% 85%  
110 26% 55% Median
111 6% 29%  
112 6% 23%  
113 5% 17%  
114 7% 12%  
115 0.7% 5%  
116 3% 4%  
117 1.3% 1.5%  
118 0.1% 0.2%  
119 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.7%  
80 0.9% 99.5%  
81 2% 98.5% Majority
82 1.1% 96%  
83 2% 95%  
84 3% 93%  
85 4% 91%  
86 15% 87%  
87 6% 71%  
88 3% 65%  
89 34% 62% Median
90 11% 28%  
91 3% 17%  
92 4% 14%  
93 3% 10%  
94 2% 7%  
95 0.7% 5%  
96 4% 4%  
97 0.2% 0.3%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.4% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.5%  
56 0.5% 99.4%  
57 3% 98.9%  
58 0.7% 96%  
59 3% 96%  
60 5% 93%  
61 7% 88% Last Result
62 2% 81%  
63 23% 79% Median
64 24% 56%  
65 8% 32%  
66 10% 25%  
67 4% 15%  
68 6% 11%  
69 2% 5%  
70 1.1% 3%  
71 0.7% 2%  
72 0.3% 0.8%  
73 0.1% 0.5%  
74 0.3% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.7%  
51 0.2% 99.4%  
52 0.2% 99.2%  
53 0.4% 99.0%  
54 1.4% 98.6%  
55 4% 97%  
56 15% 93% Last Result
57 4% 78%  
58 5% 74%  
59 10% 70% Median
60 26% 59%  
61 5% 34%  
62 9% 29%  
63 8% 20%  
64 2% 13%  
65 6% 10%  
66 0.3% 4%  
67 3% 4%  
68 0.5% 0.7%  
69 0% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.4% 99.9%  
52 0.4% 99.5%  
53 3% 99.1%  
54 0.4% 96%  
55 1.3% 96%  
56 6% 95%  
57 5% 89%  
58 4% 84% Last Result
59 2% 80%  
60 24% 78% Median
61 22% 54%  
62 9% 32%  
63 9% 23%  
64 5% 14%  
65 5% 10%  
66 3% 5%  
67 0.8% 2%  
68 0.5% 1.4%  
69 0.4% 0.9%  
70 0.1% 0.5%  
71 0.4% 0.4%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.5% 99.9%  
51 0.1% 99.5%  
52 0.4% 99.4%  
53 3% 99.0%  
54 0.5% 96%  
55 1.4% 96%  
56 6% 94% Last Result
57 5% 89%  
58 4% 84%  
59 3% 80%  
60 25% 77% Median
61 21% 52%  
62 9% 31%  
63 9% 22%  
64 5% 13%  
65 4% 8%  
66 2% 4%  
67 0.8% 2%  
68 0.5% 1.3%  
69 0.4% 0.8%  
70 0% 0.3%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 99.9%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 0.3% 99.6%  
48 0.2% 99.3%  
49 0.2% 99.1%  
50 1.0% 98.9%  
51 1.2% 98%  
52 4% 97%  
53 13% 92% Last Result
54 6% 80%  
55 5% 73%  
56 13% 68% Median
57 24% 55%  
58 3% 31%  
59 13% 28%  
60 4% 15%  
61 4% 12%  
62 3% 7%  
63 0.3% 4%  
64 3% 4%  
65 0.4% 0.6%  
66 0% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 99.9%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 0.4% 99.6%  
48 0.2% 99.3%  
49 0.2% 99.1%  
50 2% 98.9%  
51 1.2% 97% Last Result
52 5% 96%  
53 13% 91%  
54 7% 79%  
55 4% 72%  
56 14% 68% Median
57 24% 53%  
58 2% 30%  
59 13% 27%  
60 4% 15%  
61 4% 11%  
62 3% 7%  
63 0.2% 4%  
64 3% 4%  
65 0.4% 0.6%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.5% 99.8%  
50 0.5% 99.3%  
51 2% 98.8% Last Result
52 3% 96%  
53 1.2% 93%  
54 2% 92%  
55 7% 90%  
56 27% 83%  
57 14% 55% Median
58 6% 41%  
59 20% 35%  
60 6% 14%  
61 2% 9%  
62 3% 6%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.6% 1.1%  
65 0.2% 0.6%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.8%  
49 0.8% 99.7% Last Result
50 0.2% 98.9%  
51 2% 98.6%  
52 3% 96%  
53 1.3% 93%  
54 3% 92%  
55 7% 89%  
56 27% 82%  
57 15% 55% Median
58 7% 40%  
59 19% 33%  
60 6% 13%  
61 3% 8%  
62 3% 5%  
63 0.6% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.9%  
65 0.2% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.4% 99.8%  
45 0.3% 99.4%  
46 0.8% 99.1% Last Result
47 2% 98%  
48 1.1% 96%  
49 2% 95%  
50 5% 93%  
51 14% 89%  
52 11% 75%  
53 30% 63% Median
54 6% 34%  
55 7% 28%  
56 5% 20%  
57 6% 15%  
58 5% 9%  
59 2% 5%  
60 3% 3%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations