Opinion Poll by Red C for The Sunday Business Post, 28 April 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 28.2% 26.2–29.9% 25.7–30.4% 25.3–30.8% 24.5–31.8%
Fine Gael 25.5% 24.2% 22.3–25.8% 21.9–26.3% 21.5–26.7% 20.7–27.6%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 18.2% 16.5–19.7% 16.1–20.1% 15.8–20.5% 15.1–21.3%
Independent 15.9% 8.5% 7.4–9.7% 7.1–10.0% 6.9–10.4% 6.4–11.0%
Labour Party 6.6% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Social Democrats 3.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.7%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.3% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 44 55 52–59 50–59 50–59 46–60
Fine Gael 49 42 41–49 41–52 41–56 39–56
Sinn Féin 23 37 31–37 31–38 31–38 28–41
Independent 19 3 3–5 3–6 3–7 3–9
Labour Party 7 6 2–8 2–11 1–12 0–14
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 5 3–8 3–9 3–9 3–10
Social Democrats 3 6 4–7 4–8 4–8 3–10
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 2 0–2 0–2 0–3 0–3
Independents 4 Change 4 4 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100% Last Result
45 0% 100%  
46 0.5% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.4%  
48 0.2% 99.2%  
49 2% 99.0%  
50 3% 98%  
51 4% 94%  
52 0.8% 90%  
53 6% 90%  
54 9% 83%  
55 42% 74% Median
56 7% 32%  
57 3% 25%  
58 9% 22%  
59 11% 13%  
60 2% 2%  
61 0.1% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.6% 99.7%  
40 2% 99.2%  
41 41% 98%  
42 15% 56% Median
43 6% 42%  
44 7% 35%  
45 0.9% 29%  
46 2% 28%  
47 13% 26%  
48 2% 14%  
49 2% 11% Last Result
50 2% 9%  
51 0.2% 8%  
52 4% 7%  
53 0.2% 4%  
54 0.1% 4%  
55 0.3% 4%  
56 3% 3%  
57 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.4% 99.9%  
28 0.1% 99.5%  
29 0.3% 99.4%  
30 0.8% 99.2%  
31 9% 98%  
32 0.8% 89%  
33 5% 89%  
34 10% 83%  
35 1.2% 73%  
36 12% 72%  
37 54% 60% Median
38 4% 6%  
39 1.0% 2%  
40 0.7% 1.3%  
41 0.5% 0.6%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 62% 100% Median
4 23% 38%  
5 6% 15%  
6 6% 9%  
7 0.9% 3%  
8 0.7% 2%  
9 1.4% 2%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100%  
1 3% 99.2%  
2 7% 97%  
3 3% 90%  
4 6% 87%  
5 3% 80%  
6 44% 77% Median
7 18% 33% Last Result
8 7% 14%  
9 0.3% 8%  
10 2% 7%  
11 1.1% 6%  
12 3% 4%  
13 0.1% 1.0%  
14 0.6% 0.9%  
15 0.2% 0.3%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 10% 99.9%  
4 7% 90%  
5 47% 82% Median
6 18% 36% Last Result
7 3% 18%  
8 6% 15%  
9 7% 9%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.8% 100% Last Result
4 23% 99.2%  
5 21% 76%  
6 8% 55% Median
7 41% 47%  
8 4% 6%  
9 0.5% 2%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100%  
1 11% 84%  
2 70% 73% Last Result, Median
3 2% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 24% 100%  
1 9% 76%  
2 9% 67%  
3 6% 58%  
4 47% 52% Last Result, Median
5 5% 5%  
6 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.5%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael 93 96 100% 96–106 96–106 94–107 91–109
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 92 99.8% 86–94 84–95 84–96 82–97
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 56 70 0% 64–72 63–72 59–73 57–73
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 63 0% 59–67 58–68 54–68 52–68
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 61 0% 58–65 56–66 53–66 52–67
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 61 56 0% 53–63 52–64 51–66 49–69
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 57 0% 53–61 51–61 50–61 48–61
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 49 0% 47–58 46–60 46–60 44–64
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 47 0% 46–58 45–59 44–60 43–62
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 43 0% 43–50 43–52 42–56 40–58
Fine Gael 49 42 0% 41–49 41–52 41–56 39–56

Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.7% 99.8%  
92 0.3% 99.1%  
93 0.1% 98.8% Last Result
94 2% 98.6%  
95 0.9% 97%  
96 49% 96%  
97 1.2% 47% Median
98 7% 46%  
99 0.7% 40%  
100 5% 39%  
101 5% 34%  
102 8% 28%  
103 5% 21%  
104 0.5% 15%  
105 1.0% 15%  
106 11% 14%  
107 0.5% 3%  
108 0.1% 2%  
109 2% 2%  
110 0.1% 0.3%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0% 99.9%  
81 0.1% 99.8% Majority
82 0.3% 99.7%  
83 2% 99.4%  
84 4% 98%  
85 4% 94%  
86 4% 91%  
87 3% 86%  
88 0.4% 84%  
89 2% 84%  
90 15% 82%  
91 6% 67%  
92 39% 61% Median
93 9% 21%  
94 3% 12%  
95 7% 10%  
96 3% 3%  
97 0.3% 0.5%  
98 0.2% 0.2%  
99 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0% 99.9% Last Result
57 2% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 98%  
59 0.4% 98%  
60 0.1% 97%  
61 1.0% 97%  
62 1.1% 96%  
63 1.4% 95%  
64 6% 94%  
65 5% 88%  
66 5% 84%  
67 5% 79%  
68 4% 74%  
69 6% 70% Median
70 46% 64%  
71 3% 17%  
72 10% 14%  
73 4% 5%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0% 99.9%  
52 2% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 98% Last Result
54 0.2% 98%  
55 0.9% 97%  
56 0.5% 96%  
57 0.1% 96%  
58 2% 96%  
59 8% 94%  
60 3% 86%  
61 6% 83%  
62 6% 77%  
63 40% 71% Median
64 6% 31%  
65 9% 25%  
66 6% 16%  
67 0.6% 10%  
68 9% 10%  
69 0.3% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
52 2% 99.7%  
53 0.8% 98%  
54 0.3% 97%  
55 0.9% 96%  
56 0.7% 96%  
57 2% 95%  
58 6% 93%  
59 4% 87%  
60 7% 83%  
61 42% 76% Median
62 9% 34%  
63 5% 25%  
64 5% 20%  
65 4% 14%  
66 9% 10%  
67 0.6% 1.0%  
68 0.3% 0.4%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.2% 100%  
49 0.5% 99.8%  
50 0.2% 99.2%  
51 3% 99.0%  
52 5% 96%  
53 1.3% 91%  
54 4% 89%  
55 4% 85%  
56 44% 81% Median
57 5% 37%  
58 3% 32%  
59 4% 29%  
60 9% 25%  
61 3% 16% Last Result
62 0.3% 13%  
63 4% 13%  
64 4% 9%  
65 0.3% 5%  
66 3% 4%  
67 0% 1.5%  
68 0.8% 1.4%  
69 0.5% 0.7%  
70 0% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0% 99.9%  
48 0.5% 99.9%  
49 0.5% 99.4%  
50 2% 98.9%  
51 5% 97%  
52 0.1% 92%  
53 6% 91%  
54 1.1% 85%  
55 5% 84%  
56 7% 79%  
57 43% 72% Median
58 6% 29%  
59 5% 23%  
60 7% 18%  
61 10% 11%  
62 0.3% 0.4%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.5% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.5%  
45 0.7% 99.2%  
46 6% 98%  
47 5% 93%  
48 3% 87%  
49 39% 84%  
50 2% 46% Median
51 6% 43%  
52 9% 37%  
53 2% 28%  
54 1.2% 26%  
55 0.3% 25%  
56 9% 24%  
57 3% 15%  
58 3% 13% Last Result
59 4% 10%  
60 4% 5%  
61 0.4% 2%  
62 0.9% 2%  
63 0% 0.6%  
64 0.4% 0.6%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.2% 100%  
43 1.0% 99.8%  
44 2% 98.8%  
45 2% 96%  
46 8% 94%  
47 41% 86%  
48 2% 46% Median
49 4% 43%  
50 10% 40%  
51 4% 30%  
52 0.7% 26%  
53 0.4% 25%  
54 9% 25%  
55 0.8% 16%  
56 0.4% 15% Last Result
57 3% 14%  
58 3% 11%  
59 4% 9%  
60 4% 4%  
61 0.2% 0.8%  
62 0.4% 0.6%  
63 0.1% 0.3%  
64 0% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0% 99.9%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.6% 99.7%  
41 0.9% 99.2%  
42 2% 98%  
43 47% 96%  
44 12% 49% Median
45 2% 37%  
46 6% 35%  
47 5% 29%  
48 0.8% 24%  
49 11% 23%  
50 3% 11%  
51 1.0% 9% Last Result
52 3% 8%  
53 0.7% 5%  
54 0.3% 4%  
55 0.2% 4%  
56 2% 4%  
57 0.3% 1.1%  
58 0.9% 0.9%  
59 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.6% 99.7%  
40 2% 99.2%  
41 41% 98%  
42 15% 56% Median
43 6% 42%  
44 7% 35%  
45 0.9% 29%  
46 2% 28%  
47 13% 26%  
48 2% 14%  
49 2% 11% Last Result
50 2% 9%  
51 0.2% 8%  
52 4% 7%  
53 0.2% 4%  
54 0.1% 4%  
55 0.3% 4%  
56 3% 3%  
57 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations