Opinion Poll by Behaviour and Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 13 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 28.2% 26.2–30.0% 25.7–30.5% 25.3–31.0% 24.4–31.9%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 27.2% 25.2–28.9% 24.7–29.4% 24.2–29.9% 23.4–30.8%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 18.1% 16.5–19.7% 16.0–20.1% 15.7–20.6% 15.0–21.4%
Independent 15.9% 11.9% 10.6–13.3% 10.2–13.7% 9.9–14.1% 9.4–14.8%
Labour Party 6.6% 4.0% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.5% 2.6–6.0%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.5%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.7–2.8%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Social Democrats 3.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.3% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 56 52–61 51–62 46–64 46–65
Fianna Fáil 44 50 48–55 46–55 45–55 42–58
Sinn Féin 23 36 33–37 33–40 32–41 28–42
Independent 19 11 7–16 7–16 6–16 6–16
Labour Party 7 2 0–2 0–3 0–3 0–4
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–3
Independents 4 Change 4 3 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–5
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 0 0 0 0 0–1
Social Democrats 3 1 1–2 1–3 0–3 0–3
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 3% 99.8%  
47 0.3% 97%  
48 0.3% 96%  
49 0.3% 96% Last Result
50 0.3% 96%  
51 3% 95%  
52 5% 93%  
53 13% 87%  
54 2% 75%  
55 15% 73%  
56 9% 58% Median
57 13% 50%  
58 2% 37%  
59 15% 34%  
60 2% 20%  
61 11% 17%  
62 3% 6%  
63 0.1% 3%  
64 3% 3%  
65 0.2% 0.6%  
66 0.1% 0.5%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 0.5% 99.6%  
43 0.4% 99.1%  
44 0.3% 98.7% Last Result
45 3% 98%  
46 2% 96%  
47 2% 94%  
48 13% 92%  
49 21% 79%  
50 9% 58% Median
51 0.8% 49%  
52 13% 48%  
53 16% 35%  
54 2% 19%  
55 15% 17%  
56 0.5% 2%  
57 0.8% 2%  
58 0.4% 0.9%  
59 0.2% 0.5%  
60 0.2% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.2% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.8%  
29 0.6% 99.4%  
30 0.1% 98.8%  
31 1.1% 98.7%  
32 0.6% 98%  
33 27% 97%  
34 10% 70%  
35 10% 61%  
36 17% 50% Median
37 25% 33%  
38 2% 8%  
39 1.0% 6%  
40 0.3% 5%  
41 3% 5%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 0.1% 99.7%  
6 2% 99.6%  
7 12% 97%  
8 8% 85%  
9 15% 77%  
10 3% 62%  
11 10% 59% Median
12 5% 48%  
13 7% 43%  
14 5% 36%  
15 1.0% 31%  
16 30% 30%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 20% 100%  
1 5% 80%  
2 68% 75% Median
3 6% 7%  
4 0.7% 0.8%  
5 0.1% 0.2%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 73% 100% Median
1 25% 27%  
2 0.6% 2% Last Result
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100%  
1 18% 87%  
2 16% 69%  
3 19% 54% Median
4 22% 35% Last Result
5 13% 13%  
6 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Median
1 0.8% 1.0%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 81% 97% Median
2 9% 17%  
3 7% 8% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 108 100% 104–113 101–113 100–113 98–114
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 85 95% 81–91 81–92 78–94 77–97
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 60 0% 56–64 54–65 50–65 49–69
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 59 0% 55–63 53–64 49–64 48–67
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 58 0% 54–63 53–63 48–64 47–66
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 57 0% 53–61 51–62 47–64 46–65
Fine Gael 49 56 0% 52–61 51–62 46–64 46–65
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 55 0% 50–59 49–59 46–59 45–63
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 53 0% 48–58 48–58 45–58 43–61
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 52 0% 48–57 48–57 45–57 43–61
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 51 0% 48–56 46–56 45–56 42–59

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0.2% 99.9%  
97 0.2% 99.7%  
98 0.2% 99.6%  
99 0.9% 99.4%  
100 2% 98%  
101 3% 97%  
102 2% 94%  
103 0.4% 91%  
104 11% 91%  
105 7% 80%  
106 7% 73% Median
107 14% 66%  
108 31% 52%  
109 2% 21%  
110 2% 19%  
111 3% 17%  
112 3% 14%  
113 11% 12%  
114 0.5% 0.7%  
115 0.1% 0.2%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.5% 99.7%  
78 2% 99.2%  
79 0.3% 97%  
80 2% 97%  
81 13% 95% Majority
82 11% 83%  
83 4% 72%  
84 4% 67%  
85 14% 63%  
86 2% 50% Median
87 6% 48%  
88 2% 42%  
89 10% 40%  
90 13% 30%  
91 10% 17%  
92 4% 7%  
93 0.7% 3%  
94 0.1% 3%  
95 0% 2%  
96 2% 2%  
97 0.4% 0.7%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.2%  
101 0.2% 0.2%  
102 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.4% 99.9%  
50 3% 99.5%  
51 0.3% 97%  
52 0.3% 96%  
53 0.1% 96%  
54 1.2% 96%  
55 3% 95%  
56 4% 91%  
57 14% 88%  
58 12% 74%  
59 11% 62% Median
60 17% 51%  
61 7% 34% Last Result
62 7% 27%  
63 2% 20%  
64 13% 18%  
65 4% 5%  
66 0.2% 1.4%  
67 0.2% 1.2%  
68 0.4% 1.0%  
69 0.3% 0.5%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.4% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.6%  
49 3% 99.4%  
50 0.3% 97%  
51 0.3% 96%  
52 0.3% 96%  
53 1.2% 96%  
54 4% 94%  
55 2% 90%  
56 15% 88%  
57 13% 73%  
58 10% 60% Last Result, Median
59 22% 50%  
60 8% 28%  
61 2% 20%  
62 0.9% 18%  
63 11% 17%  
64 5% 6%  
65 0.2% 1.4%  
66 0.4% 1.2%  
67 0.5% 0.8%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.9%  
48 3% 99.4%  
49 0.3% 97%  
50 0.4% 96%  
51 0.4% 96%  
52 0.3% 96%  
53 1.3% 95%  
54 5% 94%  
55 15% 89%  
56 2% 73% Last Result
57 13% 72%  
58 9% 58% Median
59 27% 50%  
60 2% 22%  
61 2% 20%  
62 0.9% 18%  
63 12% 17%  
64 4% 5%  
65 0.2% 1.4%  
66 0.8% 1.2%  
67 0.3% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.5% 99.8%  
47 3% 99.3%  
48 0.3% 96%  
49 0.4% 96%  
50 0.4% 96%  
51 2% 95% Last Result
52 2% 93%  
53 6% 91%  
54 11% 86%  
55 14% 74%  
56 10% 60% Median
57 8% 50%  
58 8% 43%  
59 15% 35%  
60 2% 20%  
61 10% 17%  
62 4% 7%  
63 0.1% 4%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.5% 0.9%  
66 0% 0.5%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 3% 99.8%  
47 0.3% 97%  
48 0.3% 96%  
49 0.3% 96% Last Result
50 0.3% 96%  
51 3% 95%  
52 5% 93%  
53 13% 87%  
54 2% 75%  
55 15% 73%  
56 9% 58% Median
57 13% 50%  
58 2% 37%  
59 15% 34%  
60 2% 20%  
61 11% 17%  
62 3% 6%  
63 0.1% 3%  
64 3% 3%  
65 0.2% 0.6%  
66 0.1% 0.5%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.2% 99.7%  
45 0.2% 99.5%  
46 2% 99.3%  
47 0.6% 97%  
48 0.7% 97%  
49 6% 96%  
50 13% 90%  
51 10% 78%  
52 3% 68%  
53 8% 64% Median
54 2% 57%  
55 19% 55%  
56 14% 36% Last Result
57 0.4% 22%  
58 4% 22%  
59 16% 18%  
60 0.2% 2%  
61 0.5% 2%  
62 0.3% 1.2%  
63 0.8% 0.9%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.3% 99.7%  
44 0.1% 99.4%  
45 2% 99.3%  
46 0.4% 97%  
47 0.7% 97%  
48 7% 96%  
49 12% 89%  
50 10% 78%  
51 3% 68%  
52 13% 64% Median
53 5% 51% Last Result
54 9% 46%  
55 15% 37%  
56 0.8% 22%  
57 6% 21%  
58 13% 15%  
59 0.6% 2%  
60 0.2% 1.2%  
61 0.6% 1.0%  
62 0.4% 0.4%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 0.3% 99.6%  
44 0.4% 99.3%  
45 2% 98.9%  
46 0.3% 97%  
47 1.0% 96%  
48 6% 96%  
49 12% 89%  
50 10% 77%  
51 9% 67% Last Result
52 9% 58% Median
53 4% 49%  
54 10% 46%  
55 14% 35%  
56 4% 21%  
57 15% 17%  
58 0.2% 2%  
59 0.7% 2%  
60 0.3% 1.2%  
61 0.6% 0.8%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.3% 100%  
42 0.4% 99.7%  
43 0.6% 99.3%  
44 0.2% 98.8%  
45 2% 98.6%  
46 2% 96% Last Result
47 1.2% 94%  
48 13% 93%  
49 15% 80%  
50 14% 65% Median
51 3% 51%  
52 11% 48%  
53 13% 37%  
54 5% 24%  
55 3% 18%  
56 14% 15%  
57 0.7% 2%  
58 0.3% 1.0%  
59 0.4% 0.7%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations