Opinion Poll by Red C for The Sunday Business Post, 25 May 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael | 25.5% | 29.2% | 27.2–30.9% | 26.7–31.4% | 26.3–31.9% | 25.4–32.8% |
| Fianna Fáil | 24.3% | 21.2% | 19.4–22.7% | 19.0–23.2% | 18.6–23.7% | 17.9–24.5% |
| Sinn Féin | 13.8% | 15.1% | 13.7–16.6% | 13.3–17.0% | 13.0–17.4% | 12.3–18.2% |
| Independent | 15.9% | 12.7% | 11.4–14.1% | 11.0–14.5% | 10.7–14.9% | 10.2–15.6% |
| Labour Party | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.3–8.2% |
| Social Democrats | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.8–4.7% |
| Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.8–4.7% |
| Independents 4 Change | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.1–2.4% | 1.0–2.6% | 0.8–2.9% |
| Renua Ireland | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael | 49 | 61 | 56–62 | 54–63 | 54–65 | 50–66 |
| Fianna Fáil | 44 | 38 | 37–39 | 35–43 | 35–45 | 34–46 |
| Sinn Féin | 23 | 30 | 29–32 | 26–33 | 24–33 | 21–35 |
| Independent | 19 | 12 | 12–16 | 11–16 | 9–16 | 5–16 |
| Labour Party | 7 | 7 | 4–9 | 2–10 | 1–14 | 1–16 |
| Social Democrats | 3 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–8 | 3–9 |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit | 6 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 1–6 |
| Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Independents 4 Change | 4 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 0–5 |
| Renua Ireland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
Fine Gael
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 53 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 54 | 4% | 98% | |
| 55 | 3% | 94% | |
| 56 | 2% | 91% | |
| 57 | 3% | 89% | |
| 58 | 6% | 86% | |
| 59 | 2% | 80% | |
| 60 | 0.9% | 79% | |
| 61 | 67% | 78% | Median |
| 62 | 2% | 11% | |
| 63 | 5% | 9% | |
| 64 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 65 | 2% | 3% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 67 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 35 | 5% | 99.4% | |
| 36 | 2% | 95% | |
| 37 | 9% | 93% | |
| 38 | 69% | 83% | Median |
| 39 | 5% | 14% | |
| 40 | 2% | 9% | |
| 41 | 1.5% | 7% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 6% | |
| 43 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 45 | 3% | 4% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 23 | 1.4% | 99.1% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 26 | 2% | 97% | |
| 27 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 28 | 3% | 94% | |
| 29 | 6% | 91% | |
| 30 | 68% | 86% | Median |
| 31 | 5% | 18% | |
| 32 | 6% | 13% | |
| 33 | 4% | 6% | |
| 34 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Independent
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 98.7% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 8 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 9 | 2% | 98% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 11 | 2% | 96% | |
| 12 | 66% | 94% | Median |
| 13 | 9% | 28% | |
| 14 | 1.2% | 19% | |
| 15 | 1.1% | 18% | |
| 16 | 16% | 16% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 3 | 3% | 94% | |
| 4 | 5% | 91% | |
| 5 | 5% | 87% | |
| 6 | 5% | 82% | |
| 7 | 65% | 77% | Last Result, Median |
| 8 | 1.3% | 12% | |
| 9 | 4% | 10% | |
| 10 | 3% | 7% | |
| 11 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 12 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 14 | 2% | 3% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 16 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Social Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4 | 88% | 98% | Median |
| 5 | 5% | 11% | |
| 6 | 2% | 6% | |
| 7 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 8 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 9 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Solidarity–People Before Profit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 4% | 98% | |
| 3 | 80% | 94% | Median |
| 4 | 9% | 14% | |
| 5 | 4% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0.9% | 0.9% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 100% | |
| 1 | 81% | 91% | Median |
| 2 | 9% | 10% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Independents 4 Change
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 2 | 4% | 99.1% | |
| 3 | 9% | 95% | |
| 4 | 70% | 86% | Last Result, Median |
| 5 | 16% | 16% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Renua Ireland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 4% | |
| 2 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil | 93 | 99 | 100% | 95–99 | 93–102 | 91–104 | 90–105 |
| Fine Gael – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 61 | 73 | 0.3% | 68–73 | 65–75 | 65–77 | 62–80 |
| Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin | 67 | 68 | 0% | 66–70 | 65–73 | 62–74 | 59–76 |
| Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 58 | 69 | 0% | 63–69 | 61–71 | 60–73 | 59–76 |
| Fine Gael – Labour Party | 56 | 68 | 0% | 62–68 | 60–70 | 58–71 | 57–75 |
| Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 51 | 62 | 0% | 57–63 | 55–64 | 55–66 | 51–67 |
| Fine Gael | 49 | 61 | 0% | 56–62 | 54–63 | 54–65 | 50–66 |
| Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 56 | 50 | 0% | 47–53 | 46–56 | 44–58 | 41–61 |
| Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 53 | 46 | 0% | 43–48 | 41–52 | 40–53 | 37–57 |
| Fianna Fáil – Labour Party | 51 | 45 | 0% | 42–48 | 40–51 | 39–52 | 36–55 |
| Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 46 | 39 | 0% | 37–40 | 37–44 | 36–46 | 35–47 |
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 90 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 91 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 92 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 93 | 1.1% | 95% | Last Result |
| 94 | 2% | 94% | |
| 95 | 5% | 92% | |
| 96 | 3% | 87% | |
| 97 | 2% | 84% | |
| 98 | 4% | 82% | |
| 99 | 67% | 77% | Median |
| 100 | 3% | 10% | |
| 101 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 102 | 2% | 7% | |
| 103 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 104 | 3% | 3% | |
| 105 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 62 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 65 | 5% | 98.5% | |
| 66 | 1.1% | 94% | |
| 67 | 0.8% | 92% | |
| 68 | 2% | 92% | |
| 69 | 3% | 89% | |
| 70 | 2% | 87% | |
| 71 | 7% | 84% | |
| 72 | 2% | 78% | |
| 73 | 68% | 76% | Median |
| 74 | 1.0% | 7% | |
| 75 | 2% | 6% | |
| 76 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 77 | 2% | 4% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 79 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 80 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 82 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 61 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 64 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 65 | 3% | 97% | |
| 66 | 4% | 94% | |
| 67 | 4% | 90% | Last Result |
| 68 | 70% | 86% | Median |
| 69 | 3% | 15% | |
| 70 | 3% | 12% | |
| 71 | 2% | 9% | |
| 72 | 1.3% | 7% | |
| 73 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 74 | 3% | 5% | |
| 75 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 59 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 60 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 61 | 5% | 97% | |
| 62 | 2% | 92% | |
| 63 | 0.8% | 90% | |
| 64 | 2% | 89% | |
| 65 | 3% | 87% | |
| 66 | 2% | 84% | |
| 67 | 9% | 83% | |
| 68 | 0.4% | 74% | |
| 69 | 67% | 74% | Median |
| 70 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 71 | 3% | 6% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 73 | 2% | 3% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 76 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 57 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 58 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 59 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 60 | 5% | 96% | |
| 61 | 0.7% | 91% | |
| 62 | 3% | 90% | |
| 63 | 2% | 88% | |
| 64 | 2% | 86% | |
| 65 | 1.5% | 84% | |
| 66 | 3% | 83% | |
| 67 | 6% | 80% | |
| 68 | 66% | 74% | Median |
| 69 | 2% | 8% | |
| 70 | 2% | 5% | |
| 71 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 72 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 75 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 55 | 5% | 98.8% | |
| 56 | 0.7% | 94% | |
| 57 | 4% | 93% | |
| 58 | 5% | 89% | |
| 59 | 3% | 84% | |
| 60 | 3% | 81% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 79% | |
| 62 | 67% | 78% | Median |
| 63 | 5% | 11% | |
| 64 | 2% | 6% | |
| 65 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 66 | 2% | 3% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 68 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 53 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 54 | 4% | 98% | |
| 55 | 3% | 94% | |
| 56 | 2% | 91% | |
| 57 | 3% | 89% | |
| 58 | 6% | 86% | |
| 59 | 2% | 80% | |
| 60 | 0.9% | 79% | |
| 61 | 67% | 78% | Median |
| 62 | 2% | 11% | |
| 63 | 5% | 9% | |
| 64 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 65 | 2% | 3% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 67 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 98.5% | |
| 44 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 45 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 46 | 2% | 96% | |
| 47 | 6% | 94% | |
| 48 | 3% | 88% | |
| 49 | 1.0% | 85% | |
| 50 | 69% | 84% | Median |
| 51 | 0.8% | 15% | |
| 52 | 4% | 14% | |
| 53 | 2% | 11% | |
| 54 | 0.9% | 8% | |
| 55 | 0.8% | 8% | |
| 56 | 4% | 7% | Last Result |
| 57 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 58 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 61 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 1.0% | 98.9% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 40 | 2% | 98% | |
| 41 | 2% | 96% | |
| 42 | 2% | 94% | |
| 43 | 5% | 92% | |
| 44 | 4% | 86% | |
| 45 | 0.5% | 83% | |
| 46 | 70% | 82% | Median |
| 47 | 1.0% | 12% | |
| 48 | 2% | 11% | |
| 49 | 2% | 9% | |
| 50 | 0.6% | 8% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 7% | |
| 52 | 4% | 7% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 3% | Last Result |
| 54 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 56 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 57 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 39 | 2% | 98% | |
| 40 | 3% | 96% | |
| 41 | 2% | 93% | |
| 42 | 5% | 91% | |
| 43 | 3% | 86% | |
| 44 | 2% | 83% | |
| 45 | 65% | 82% | Median |
| 46 | 6% | 16% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 11% | |
| 48 | 3% | 10% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 50 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 51 | 3% | 6% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 53 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 55 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 36 | 4% | 99.4% | |
| 37 | 5% | 95% | |
| 38 | 4% | 90% | |
| 39 | 72% | 86% | Median |
| 40 | 5% | 14% | |
| 41 | 2% | 9% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 7% | |
| 43 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 44 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 46 | 3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 47 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Red C
- Commissioner(s): The Sunday Business Post
- Fieldwork period: 25 May 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 997
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.39%