Opinion Poll by Behaviour and Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 10 June 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 28.9% 26.9–30.6% 26.4–31.1% 26.0–31.6% 25.1–32.5%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 28.9% 26.9–30.6% 26.4–31.1% 26.0–31.6% 25.1–32.5%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 18.0% 16.4–19.5% 15.9–19.9% 15.6–20.3% 14.9–21.1%
Independent 15.9% 7.6% 6.6–8.7% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
Labour Party 6.6% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.4–7.0%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.7%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Social Democrats 3.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.3% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 58 55–61 52–62 51–63 48–65
Fianna Fáil 44 55 51–58 50–60 50–60 47–61
Sinn Féin 23 36 33–38 33–39 32–40 30–41
Independent 19 3 3–4 3–4 3–5 2–6
Labour Party 7 3 2–7 1–8 1–8 0–9
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 1 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 0 0 0 0 0–1
Social Democrats 3 1 1–2 1–3 0–3 0–3
Independents 4 Change 4 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.4% 99.8%  
49 0.4% 99.4% Last Result
50 0.9% 99.0%  
51 2% 98%  
52 1.1% 96%  
53 1.3% 95%  
54 3% 94%  
55 6% 90%  
56 17% 84%  
57 6% 67%  
58 14% 62% Median
59 11% 48%  
60 9% 37%  
61 18% 27%  
62 5% 9%  
63 2% 4%  
64 1.1% 2%  
65 0.8% 1.0%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100% Last Result
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.8%  
47 0.3% 99.6%  
48 0.5% 99.3%  
49 1.2% 98.9%  
50 4% 98%  
51 4% 94%  
52 5% 90%  
53 23% 84%  
54 8% 62%  
55 13% 53% Median
56 9% 41%  
57 10% 32%  
58 13% 22%  
59 3% 8%  
60 4% 5%  
61 1.4% 2%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.1% 99.8%  
30 0.4% 99.7%  
31 1.3% 99.3%  
32 2% 98%  
33 8% 96%  
34 9% 89%  
35 15% 80%  
36 24% 65% Median
37 29% 41%  
38 6% 12%  
39 3% 7%  
40 2% 3%  
41 1.2% 2%  
42 0.2% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 1.1% 99.9%  
3 68% 98.9% Median
4 27% 31%  
5 2% 4%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0.3% 0.5%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 5% 98%  
2 20% 93%  
3 29% 73% Median
4 20% 44%  
5 5% 25%  
6 8% 20%  
7 4% 12% Last Result
8 6% 7%  
9 1.3% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.3%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 36% 100%  
1 28% 64% Median
2 20% 36% Last Result
3 15% 15%  
4 0.5% 0.6%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 72% 96% Median
2 19% 24%  
3 5% 5% Last Result
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 55% 100% Median
1 6% 45%  
2 6% 40%  
3 1.3% 34%  
4 31% 33% Last Result
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael 93 113 100% 109–116 108–118 107–119 105–119
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 91 99.8% 87–95 85–96 84–97 82–100
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 64 0% 61–68 59–69 58–70 56–72
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 63 0% 59–67 57–68 56–68 54–71
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 61 0% 57–65 56–66 56–67 53–70
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 62 0% 58–65 56–67 55–67 52–69
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 59 0% 56–63 55–65 55–66 52–68
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 59 0% 56–64 54–64 52–65 50–67
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 58 0% 55–62 54–63 53–64 50–66
Fine Gael 49 58 0% 55–61 52–62 51–63 48–65
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 56 0% 52–60 52–61 51–62 49–63

Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.3% 99.8%  
105 0.7% 99.5%  
106 0.8% 98.8%  
107 2% 98%  
108 4% 96%  
109 3% 91%  
110 9% 88%  
111 8% 79%  
112 8% 71%  
113 16% 62% Median
114 19% 47%  
115 7% 28%  
116 10% 20%  
117 2% 10%  
118 3% 8%  
119 4% 4%  
120 0.2% 0.4%  
121 0.2% 0.3%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0.2% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.8% Majority
82 0.3% 99.7%  
83 0.6% 99.4%  
84 2% 98.8%  
85 2% 97%  
86 3% 95%  
87 5% 92%  
88 14% 86%  
89 11% 72%  
90 6% 61%  
91 12% 55% Median
92 12% 43%  
93 8% 31%  
94 8% 23%  
95 8% 14%  
96 3% 6%  
97 2% 3%  
98 0.5% 2%  
99 0.4% 1.1%  
100 0.5% 0.7%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.8%  
55 0.2% 99.7%  
56 0.9% 99.5%  
57 1.0% 98.6%  
58 2% 98%  
59 1.4% 96%  
60 4% 94%  
61 6% 90% Last Result
62 16% 84%  
63 7% 68% Median
64 11% 61%  
65 16% 50%  
66 11% 34%  
67 5% 23%  
68 9% 18%  
69 6% 8%  
70 1.1% 3%  
71 0.8% 2%  
72 0.5% 1.0%  
73 0.3% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 0.4% 99.6%  
55 1.1% 99.2%  
56 1.2% 98%  
57 2% 97%  
58 2% 95% Last Result
59 4% 93%  
60 6% 89%  
61 19% 83%  
62 4% 64% Median
63 13% 59%  
64 17% 46%  
65 8% 29%  
66 6% 21%  
67 9% 16%  
68 5% 7%  
69 1.0% 2%  
70 0.7% 1.5%  
71 0.4% 0.8%  
72 0.3% 0.4%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 0.3% 99.6%  
54 0.5% 99.3%  
55 0.8% 98.8%  
56 4% 98% Last Result
57 9% 95%  
58 3% 86%  
59 15% 82%  
60 17% 67% Median
61 9% 50%  
62 9% 41%  
63 5% 32%  
64 15% 26%  
65 4% 12%  
66 4% 8%  
67 1.4% 4%  
68 0.9% 2%  
69 0.6% 2%  
70 0.8% 1.0%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.4% 99.7%  
53 1.1% 99.3%  
54 0.6% 98%  
55 1.3% 98%  
56 2% 96% Last Result
57 4% 94%  
58 2% 90%  
59 3% 88%  
60 12% 84%  
61 20% 72% Median
62 7% 52%  
63 9% 46%  
64 22% 36%  
65 5% 15%  
66 4% 9%  
67 3% 5%  
68 1.1% 2%  
69 0.2% 0.7%  
70 0.3% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 99.9%  
50 0% 99.9%  
51 0.3% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.6%  
53 0.6% 99.3% Last Result
54 1.1% 98.7%  
55 4% 98%  
56 9% 94%  
57 4% 85%  
58 15% 80%  
59 18% 65% Median
60 9% 47%  
61 8% 38%  
62 5% 29%  
63 14% 24%  
64 4% 10%  
65 3% 6%  
66 1.3% 3%  
67 0.5% 1.5%  
68 0.8% 1.0%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.2% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.8%  
50 0.4% 99.7%  
51 0.5% 99.3% Last Result
52 1.4% 98.8%  
53 2% 97%  
54 2% 95%  
55 2% 94%  
56 8% 92%  
57 15% 84%  
58 10% 69%  
59 11% 59% Median
60 10% 48%  
61 17% 38%  
62 5% 21%  
63 4% 16%  
64 8% 12%  
65 2% 3%  
66 0.5% 1.1%  
67 0.3% 0.6%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.2% 99.7%  
51 0.4% 99.5% Last Result
52 0.9% 99.1%  
53 2% 98%  
54 2% 96%  
55 5% 94%  
56 17% 89%  
57 13% 73%  
58 10% 60% Median
59 11% 50%  
60 12% 39%  
61 7% 27%  
62 13% 20%  
63 4% 8%  
64 2% 4%  
65 1.1% 2%  
66 1.0% 1.4%  
67 0.3% 0.4%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.4% 99.8%  
49 0.4% 99.4% Last Result
50 0.9% 99.0%  
51 2% 98%  
52 1.1% 96%  
53 1.3% 95%  
54 3% 94%  
55 6% 90%  
56 17% 84%  
57 6% 67%  
58 14% 62% Median
59 11% 48%  
60 9% 37%  
61 18% 27%  
62 5% 9%  
63 2% 4%  
64 1.1% 2%  
65 0.8% 1.0%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100% Last Result
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.8%  
49 0.7% 99.6%  
50 1.2% 98.9%  
51 2% 98%  
52 5% 95%  
53 11% 90%  
54 9% 78%  
55 12% 70%  
56 14% 58% Median
57 15% 44%  
58 6% 29%  
59 12% 23%  
60 5% 11%  
61 2% 6%  
62 3% 4%  
63 0.6% 0.7%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations