Opinion Poll by Red C for The Sunday Business Post, 5 July 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael | 25.5% | 27.6% | 25.3–28.9% | 24.8–29.4% | 24.3–29.8% | 23.5–30.7% |
| Fianna Fáil | 24.3% | 24.5% | 22.3–25.8% | 21.9–26.3% | 21.4–26.7% | 20.7–27.6% |
| Sinn Féin | 13.8% | 18.4% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.1–20.1% | 15.7–20.5% | 15.0–21.3% |
| Independent | 15.9% | 7.0% | 5.9–7.9% | 5.6–8.3% | 5.4–8.5% | 5.0–9.1% |
| Labour Party | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| Social Democrats | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| Independents 4 Change | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.5–1.7% | 0.4–2.0% |
| Renua Ireland | 2.2% | 0.8% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael | 49 | 55 | 49–62 | 47–64 | 46–64 | 44–65 |
| Fianna Fáil | 44 | 47 | 41–50 | 40–51 | 39–53 | 37–55 |
| Sinn Féin | 23 | 34 | 32–38 | 32–38 | 32–39 | 31–41 |
| Independent | 19 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 1–5 |
| Labour Party | 7 | 5 | 3–8 | 2–10 | 1–12 | 1–16 |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit | 6 | 6 | 3–9 | 3–9 | 3–9 | 3–10 |
| Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 2 | 2 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 0–5 |
| Social Democrats | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 1–4 | 0–4 |
| Independents 4 Change | 4 | 1 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Renua Ireland | 0 | 2 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
Fine Gael
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 46 | 2% | 98% | |
| 47 | 4% | 97% | |
| 48 | 3% | 93% | |
| 49 | 3% | 90% | Last Result |
| 50 | 4% | 87% | |
| 51 | 4% | 83% | |
| 52 | 10% | 79% | |
| 53 | 7% | 69% | |
| 54 | 7% | 62% | |
| 55 | 7% | 55% | Median |
| 56 | 11% | 48% | |
| 57 | 3% | 37% | |
| 58 | 7% | 33% | |
| 59 | 3% | 26% | |
| 60 | 5% | 23% | |
| 61 | 5% | 17% | |
| 62 | 3% | 13% | |
| 63 | 3% | 10% | |
| 64 | 6% | 7% | |
| 65 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 39 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 40 | 4% | 97% | |
| 41 | 4% | 93% | |
| 42 | 5% | 89% | |
| 43 | 3% | 84% | |
| 44 | 6% | 81% | Last Result |
| 45 | 11% | 76% | |
| 46 | 9% | 64% | |
| 47 | 30% | 55% | Median |
| 48 | 7% | 25% | |
| 49 | 4% | 18% | |
| 50 | 6% | 14% | |
| 51 | 3% | 8% | |
| 52 | 2% | 5% | |
| 53 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 54 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 32 | 10% | 99.3% | |
| 33 | 12% | 90% | |
| 34 | 34% | 78% | Median |
| 35 | 18% | 43% | |
| 36 | 5% | 25% | |
| 37 | 3% | 20% | |
| 38 | 12% | 16% | |
| 39 | 2% | 4% | |
| 40 | 2% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Independent
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 2 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 3 | 88% | 97% | Median |
| 4 | 7% | 9% | |
| 5 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 4% | 96% | |
| 3 | 15% | 92% | |
| 4 | 14% | 77% | |
| 5 | 17% | 63% | Median |
| 6 | 21% | 45% | |
| 7 | 9% | 24% | Last Result |
| 8 | 8% | 15% | |
| 9 | 2% | 7% | |
| 10 | 2% | 5% | |
| 11 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 12 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 13 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 17 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Solidarity–People Before Profit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 13% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 17% | 87% | |
| 5 | 14% | 70% | |
| 6 | 12% | 55% | Last Result, Median |
| 7 | 12% | 43% | |
| 8 | 3% | 31% | |
| 9 | 28% | 28% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 2 | 49% | 98% | Last Result, Median |
| 3 | 36% | 50% | |
| 4 | 10% | 13% | |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Social Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 2 | 2% | 97% | |
| 3 | 77% | 95% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 18% | 18% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Independents 4 Change
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50% | 100% | |
| 1 | 20% | 50% | Median |
| 2 | 11% | 30% | |
| 3 | 9% | 19% | |
| 4 | 9% | 9% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Renua Ireland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 1.5% | 89% | |
| 2 | 55% | 87% | Median |
| 3 | 8% | 33% | |
| 4 | 13% | 25% | |
| 5 | 9% | 12% | |
| 6 | 3% | 3% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil | 93 | 101 | 100% | 97–106 | 95–107 | 94–109 | 88–109 |
| Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin | 67 | 81 | 61% | 75–86 | 74–87 | 74–88 | 71–90 |
| Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats | 61 | 66 | 0% | 62–73 | 60–74 | 58–76 | 55–77 |
| Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 58 | 63 | 0% | 58–69 | 56–71 | 55–73 | 52–74 |
| Fine Gael – Labour Party | 56 | 60 | 0% | 55–67 | 54–69 | 53–71 | 49–72 |
| Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats | 56 | 57 | 0% | 52–63 | 51–64 | 50–66 | 49–68 |
| Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 51 | 58 | 0% | 51–64 | 49–66 | 48–66 | 47–67 |
| Fine Gael | 49 | 55 | 0% | 49–62 | 47–64 | 46–64 | 44–65 |
| Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 53 | 54 | 0% | 49–60 | 47–61 | 46–62 | 45–65 |
| Fianna Fáil – Labour Party | 51 | 51 | 0% | 47–57 | 45–59 | 44–60 | 43–63 |
| Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 46 | 49 | 0% | 43–53 | 42–54 | 42–55 | 39–58 |
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 92 | 0.7% | 98.7% | |
| 93 | 0.4% | 98% | Last Result |
| 94 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 95 | 3% | 96% | |
| 96 | 4% | 94% | |
| 97 | 4% | 90% | |
| 98 | 4% | 87% | |
| 99 | 15% | 83% | |
| 100 | 11% | 68% | |
| 101 | 11% | 58% | |
| 102 | 4% | 46% | Median |
| 103 | 10% | 42% | |
| 104 | 13% | 33% | |
| 105 | 6% | 20% | |
| 106 | 6% | 14% | |
| 107 | 4% | 8% | |
| 108 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 109 | 3% | 3% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 72 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 73 | 0.8% | 98.5% | |
| 74 | 4% | 98% | |
| 75 | 7% | 94% | |
| 76 | 3% | 86% | |
| 77 | 5% | 83% | |
| 78 | 4% | 78% | |
| 79 | 7% | 74% | |
| 80 | 6% | 67% | |
| 81 | 20% | 61% | Median, Majority |
| 82 | 7% | 41% | |
| 83 | 5% | 34% | |
| 84 | 7% | 30% | |
| 85 | 12% | 23% | |
| 86 | 5% | 11% | |
| 87 | 2% | 6% | |
| 88 | 2% | 4% | |
| 89 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 90 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 57 | 1.3% | 98.8% | |
| 58 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 59 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 60 | 2% | 95% | |
| 61 | 3% | 94% | Last Result |
| 62 | 17% | 91% | |
| 63 | 8% | 74% | |
| 64 | 4% | 66% | |
| 65 | 10% | 62% | Median |
| 66 | 9% | 52% | |
| 67 | 4% | 42% | |
| 68 | 6% | 39% | |
| 69 | 5% | 33% | |
| 70 | 8% | 28% | |
| 71 | 4% | 20% | |
| 72 | 6% | 16% | |
| 73 | 3% | 10% | |
| 74 | 3% | 7% | |
| 75 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 76 | 2% | 3% | |
| 77 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 78 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 52 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 54 | 0.9% | 98.8% | |
| 55 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 56 | 2% | 96% | |
| 57 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 58 | 6% | 93% | Last Result |
| 59 | 15% | 88% | |
| 60 | 7% | 73% | |
| 61 | 3% | 66% | |
| 62 | 11% | 63% | Median |
| 63 | 8% | 52% | |
| 64 | 7% | 44% | |
| 65 | 5% | 38% | |
| 66 | 5% | 33% | |
| 67 | 9% | 28% | |
| 68 | 4% | 19% | |
| 69 | 6% | 15% | |
| 70 | 2% | 10% | |
| 71 | 3% | 8% | |
| 72 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 73 | 2% | 3% | |
| 74 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 50 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 52 | 1.0% | 98.6% | |
| 53 | 2% | 98% | |
| 54 | 5% | 96% | |
| 55 | 3% | 91% | |
| 56 | 13% | 88% | Last Result |
| 57 | 9% | 75% | |
| 58 | 3% | 66% | |
| 59 | 9% | 64% | |
| 60 | 5% | 55% | Median |
| 61 | 11% | 49% | |
| 62 | 4% | 39% | |
| 63 | 6% | 35% | |
| 64 | 4% | 28% | |
| 65 | 7% | 24% | |
| 66 | 3% | 17% | |
| 67 | 5% | 14% | |
| 68 | 2% | 9% | |
| 69 | 3% | 7% | |
| 70 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 71 | 2% | 3% | |
| 72 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 50 | 2% | 98% | |
| 51 | 3% | 95% | |
| 52 | 5% | 92% | |
| 53 | 5% | 87% | |
| 54 | 5% | 82% | |
| 55 | 7% | 76% | |
| 56 | 11% | 70% | Last Result |
| 57 | 18% | 58% | Median |
| 58 | 6% | 41% | |
| 59 | 13% | 35% | |
| 60 | 4% | 22% | |
| 61 | 2% | 18% | |
| 62 | 4% | 16% | |
| 63 | 4% | 12% | |
| 64 | 3% | 8% | |
| 65 | 2% | 5% | |
| 66 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 67 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 47 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 48 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 49 | 2% | 97% | |
| 50 | 4% | 95% | |
| 51 | 3% | 91% | Last Result |
| 52 | 2% | 88% | |
| 53 | 4% | 86% | |
| 54 | 1.3% | 82% | |
| 55 | 11% | 80% | |
| 56 | 8% | 70% | |
| 57 | 8% | 62% | Median |
| 58 | 9% | 53% | |
| 59 | 7% | 44% | |
| 60 | 7% | 38% | |
| 61 | 6% | 31% | |
| 62 | 6% | 24% | |
| 63 | 5% | 18% | |
| 64 | 3% | 13% | |
| 65 | 3% | 9% | |
| 66 | 6% | 6% | |
| 67 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 46 | 2% | 98% | |
| 47 | 4% | 97% | |
| 48 | 3% | 93% | |
| 49 | 3% | 90% | Last Result |
| 50 | 4% | 87% | |
| 51 | 4% | 83% | |
| 52 | 10% | 79% | |
| 53 | 7% | 69% | |
| 54 | 7% | 62% | |
| 55 | 7% | 55% | Median |
| 56 | 11% | 48% | |
| 57 | 3% | 37% | |
| 58 | 7% | 33% | |
| 59 | 3% | 26% | |
| 60 | 5% | 23% | |
| 61 | 5% | 17% | |
| 62 | 3% | 13% | |
| 63 | 3% | 10% | |
| 64 | 6% | 7% | |
| 65 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 1.5% | 98.6% | |
| 47 | 3% | 97% | |
| 48 | 2% | 94% | |
| 49 | 5% | 92% | |
| 50 | 5% | 87% | |
| 51 | 6% | 82% | |
| 52 | 9% | 76% | |
| 53 | 11% | 67% | Last Result |
| 54 | 17% | 56% | Median |
| 55 | 8% | 39% | |
| 56 | 9% | 31% | |
| 57 | 2% | 23% | |
| 58 | 3% | 20% | |
| 59 | 5% | 17% | |
| 60 | 5% | 13% | |
| 61 | 3% | 8% | |
| 62 | 2% | 4% | |
| 63 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 64 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 65 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 44 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 45 | 3% | 97% | |
| 46 | 2% | 94% | |
| 47 | 5% | 92% | |
| 48 | 6% | 86% | |
| 49 | 6% | 80% | |
| 50 | 15% | 74% | |
| 51 | 16% | 59% | Last Result |
| 52 | 11% | 43% | Median |
| 53 | 9% | 32% | |
| 54 | 3% | 22% | |
| 55 | 1.3% | 19% | |
| 56 | 4% | 18% | |
| 57 | 3% | 13% | |
| 58 | 4% | 10% | |
| 59 | 2% | 6% | |
| 60 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 63 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 41 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 42 | 4% | 98% | |
| 43 | 4% | 94% | |
| 44 | 5% | 89% | |
| 45 | 3% | 85% | |
| 46 | 5% | 82% | Last Result |
| 47 | 8% | 77% | |
| 48 | 7% | 69% | |
| 49 | 13% | 62% | Median |
| 50 | 25% | 49% | |
| 51 | 4% | 25% | |
| 52 | 6% | 20% | |
| 53 | 8% | 14% | |
| 54 | 3% | 6% | |
| 55 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 56 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Red C
- Commissioner(s): The Sunday Business Post
- Fieldwork period: 5 July 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 978
- Simulations done: 1,048,575
- Error estimate: 1.87%