Opinion Poll by Behaviour and Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 11 July 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fianna Fáil | 24.3% | 29.9% | 28.0–31.9% | 27.5–32.4% | 27.0–32.9% | 26.2–33.9% |
| Fine Gael | 25.5% | 29.0% | 27.1–30.9% | 26.5–31.5% | 26.1–31.9% | 25.2–32.9% |
| Sinn Féin | 13.8% | 18.0% | 16.4–19.7% | 16.0–20.2% | 15.6–20.6% | 14.9–21.4% |
| Independent | 15.9% | 7.6% | 6.6–8.8% | 6.3–9.2% | 6.0–9.5% | 5.6–10.1% |
| Labour Party | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 3.9–6.3% | 3.7–6.6% | 3.4–7.1% |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.3–2.9% | 1.2–3.1% | 1.0–3.5% |
| Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.3–2.9% | 1.2–3.1% | 1.0–3.5% |
| Social Democrats | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.2% |
| Independents 4 Change | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.2% |
| Renua Ireland | 2.2% | 0.1% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.0–1.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fianna Fáil | 44 | 55 | 53–57 | 53–60 | 52–62 | 51–62 |
| Fine Gael | 49 | 59 | 55–62 | 51–62 | 50–62 | 49–63 |
| Sinn Féin | 23 | 36 | 33–39 | 33–41 | 33–41 | 30–42 |
| Independent | 19 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–7 |
| Labour Party | 7 | 3 | 2–7 | 1–7 | 0–8 | 0–10 |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit | 6 | 1 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–2 |
| Social Democrats | 3 | 1 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| Independents 4 Change | 4 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Renua Ireland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fianna Fáil
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 51 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 52 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 53 | 13% | 97% | |
| 54 | 27% | 83% | |
| 55 | 38% | 56% | Median |
| 56 | 5% | 18% | |
| 57 | 4% | 13% | |
| 58 | 3% | 9% | |
| 59 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 60 | 2% | 6% | |
| 61 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 62 | 3% | 3% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.8% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 50 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 51 | 3% | 97% | |
| 52 | 0.6% | 95% | |
| 53 | 2% | 94% | |
| 54 | 2% | 92% | |
| 55 | 7% | 91% | |
| 56 | 2% | 83% | |
| 57 | 4% | 81% | |
| 58 | 18% | 77% | |
| 59 | 20% | 59% | Median |
| 60 | 3% | 39% | |
| 61 | 1.0% | 36% | |
| 62 | 34% | 35% | |
| 63 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 31 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 32 | 1.0% | 98.5% | |
| 33 | 24% | 98% | |
| 34 | 11% | 73% | |
| 35 | 8% | 62% | |
| 36 | 38% | 54% | Median |
| 37 | 6% | 16% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 10% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 10% | |
| 40 | 2% | 10% | |
| 41 | 6% | 8% | |
| 42 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Independent
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 3 | 85% | 99.6% | Median |
| 4 | 13% | 15% | |
| 5 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 7 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 6% | 97% | |
| 2 | 7% | 92% | |
| 3 | 54% | 85% | Median |
| 4 | 2% | 31% | |
| 5 | 3% | 29% | |
| 6 | 11% | 26% | |
| 7 | 13% | 16% | Last Result |
| 8 | 2% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 10 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Solidarity–People Before Profit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 47% | 100% | |
| 1 | 11% | 53% | Median |
| 2 | 0.4% | 42% | |
| 3 | 37% | 42% | |
| 4 | 5% | 5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Social Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17% | 100% | |
| 1 | 53% | 83% | Median |
| 2 | 17% | 30% | |
| 3 | 13% | 13% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Independents 4 Change
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 60% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 6% | 40% | |
| 2 | 10% | 34% | |
| 3 | 8% | 24% | |
| 4 | 15% | 16% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Renua Ireland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael | 93 | 113 | 100% | 108–117 | 108–117 | 106–118 | 106–119 |
| Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin | 67 | 91 | 99.9% | 87–94 | 87–97 | 87–98 | 84–100 |
| Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats | 56 | 59 | 0% | 58–63 | 57–65 | 56–69 | 54–69 |
| Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 53 | 58 | 0% | 57–61 | 56–65 | 55–67 | 53–67 |
| Fianna Fáil – Labour Party | 51 | 58 | 0% | 57–61 | 56–65 | 55–67 | 53–67 |
| Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats | 61 | 65 | 0% | 60–66 | 58–66 | 58–66 | 50–69 |
| Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 58 | 64 | 0% | 58–65 | 56–65 | 56–65 | 50–67 |
| Fine Gael – Labour Party | 56 | 64 | 0% | 58–65 | 56–65 | 56–65 | 50–67 |
| Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 46 | 55 | 0% | 53–57 | 53–60 | 53–62 | 51–62 |
| Fine Gael | 49 | 59 | 0% | 55–62 | 51–62 | 50–62 | 49–63 |
| Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 51 | 59 | 0% | 55–62 | 51–62 | 50–62 | 49–63 |
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 106 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 107 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 108 | 6% | 96% | |
| 109 | 2% | 90% | |
| 110 | 1.4% | 88% | |
| 111 | 7% | 86% | |
| 112 | 1.3% | 79% | |
| 113 | 31% | 78% | |
| 114 | 4% | 47% | Median |
| 115 | 4% | 42% | |
| 116 | 9% | 38% | |
| 117 | 27% | 29% | |
| 118 | 2% | 3% | |
| 119 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 82 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 85 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 87 | 14% | 98% | |
| 88 | 16% | 84% | |
| 89 | 14% | 68% | |
| 90 | 1.2% | 54% | |
| 91 | 32% | 53% | Median |
| 92 | 2% | 22% | |
| 93 | 7% | 19% | |
| 94 | 6% | 12% | |
| 95 | 0.5% | 7% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 97 | 3% | 6% | |
| 98 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 100 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 101 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 56 | 2% | 98.7% | Last Result |
| 57 | 2% | 97% | |
| 58 | 18% | 94% | |
| 59 | 31% | 76% | Median |
| 60 | 22% | 45% | |
| 61 | 2% | 23% | |
| 62 | 1.0% | 21% | |
| 63 | 10% | 20% | |
| 64 | 3% | 10% | |
| 65 | 2% | 7% | |
| 66 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 69 | 3% | 4% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 54 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 55 | 2% | 98% | |
| 56 | 4% | 96% | |
| 57 | 25% | 92% | |
| 58 | 30% | 67% | Median |
| 59 | 4% | 37% | |
| 60 | 13% | 33% | |
| 61 | 11% | 20% | |
| 62 | 0.8% | 9% | |
| 63 | 1.5% | 8% | |
| 64 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 65 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 66 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 67 | 3% | 3% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 55 | 2% | 98% | |
| 56 | 4% | 96% | |
| 57 | 25% | 92% | |
| 58 | 31% | 67% | Median |
| 59 | 4% | 36% | |
| 60 | 12% | 32% | |
| 61 | 11% | 20% | |
| 62 | 0.8% | 8% | |
| 63 | 1.5% | 8% | |
| 64 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 65 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 66 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 67 | 3% | 3% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 98.7% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 98.6% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 58 | 4% | 98% | |
| 59 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 60 | 5% | 93% | |
| 61 | 2% | 88% | Last Result |
| 62 | 11% | 86% | |
| 63 | 14% | 75% | Median |
| 64 | 6% | 61% | |
| 65 | 11% | 55% | |
| 66 | 42% | 44% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 68 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 98.8% | |
| 55 | 0.6% | 98.5% | |
| 56 | 3% | 98% | |
| 57 | 2% | 95% | |
| 58 | 5% | 93% | Last Result |
| 59 | 2% | 88% | |
| 60 | 2% | 86% | |
| 61 | 5% | 84% | |
| 62 | 26% | 78% | Median |
| 63 | 2% | 52% | |
| 64 | 10% | 51% | |
| 65 | 39% | 41% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 67 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 98.6% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 56 | 3% | 98% | Last Result |
| 57 | 2% | 95% | |
| 58 | 5% | 93% | |
| 59 | 2% | 88% | |
| 60 | 2% | 86% | |
| 61 | 5% | 83% | |
| 62 | 26% | 78% | Median |
| 63 | 2% | 52% | |
| 64 | 10% | 51% | |
| 65 | 40% | 41% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 51 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 52 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 53 | 14% | 98% | |
| 54 | 27% | 84% | |
| 55 | 39% | 57% | Median |
| 56 | 5% | 18% | |
| 57 | 4% | 13% | |
| 58 | 3% | 10% | |
| 59 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 60 | 2% | 6% | |
| 61 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 62 | 3% | 3% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.8% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 50 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 51 | 3% | 97% | |
| 52 | 0.6% | 95% | |
| 53 | 2% | 94% | |
| 54 | 2% | 92% | |
| 55 | 7% | 91% | |
| 56 | 2% | 83% | |
| 57 | 4% | 81% | |
| 58 | 18% | 77% | |
| 59 | 20% | 59% | Median |
| 60 | 3% | 39% | |
| 61 | 1.0% | 36% | |
| 62 | 34% | 35% | |
| 63 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 50 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 51 | 3% | 97% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 53 | 2% | 94% | |
| 54 | 1.4% | 92% | |
| 55 | 7% | 91% | |
| 56 | 3% | 84% | |
| 57 | 4% | 81% | |
| 58 | 17% | 77% | |
| 59 | 20% | 61% | Median |
| 60 | 4% | 40% | |
| 61 | 1.0% | 36% | |
| 62 | 34% | 35% | |
| 63 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Behaviour and Attitudes
- Commissioner(s): The Sunday Times
- Fieldwork period: 11 July 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 922
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.42%