Opinion Poll by Behaviour and Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 12 September 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 32.9% 30.9–34.9% 30.4–35.5% 29.9–36.0% 29.0–36.9%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 25.0% 23.2–26.9% 22.7–27.4% 22.3–27.8% 21.5–28.8%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 19.0% 17.4–20.7% 17.0–21.2% 16.6–21.6% 15.9–22.5%
Independent 15.9% 8.4% 7.4–9.7% 7.1–10.1% 6.8–10.4% 6.3–11.0%
Labour Party 6.6% 5.0% 4.2–6.1% 4.0–6.4% 3.8–6.6% 3.4–7.1%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 2.0% 1.5–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.2% 1.1–3.5%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.1% 0.7–1.6% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Social Democrats 3.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.1% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.0–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 66 61–68 61–69 60–69 58–69
Fianna Fáil 44 45 42–52 41–52 41–53 40–55
Sinn Féin 23 38 35–41 35–41 33–41 32–42
Independent 19 4 3–6 3–7 3–8 3–9
Labour Party 7 3 1–8 0–8 0–8 0–9
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 0 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–3
Independents 4 Change 4 1 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Social Democrats 3 1 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.1% 99.8%  
58 0.7% 99.7%  
59 0.9% 99.0%  
60 3% 98%  
61 6% 95%  
62 10% 89%  
63 2% 79%  
64 8% 77%  
65 10% 68%  
66 30% 59% Median
67 14% 29%  
68 7% 15%  
69 7% 7%  
70 0.3% 0.5%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 2% 99.7%  
41 6% 98%  
42 12% 92%  
43 11% 80%  
44 18% 69% Last Result
45 8% 51% Median
46 10% 43%  
47 3% 34%  
48 4% 31%  
49 3% 27%  
50 4% 24%  
51 4% 20%  
52 13% 16%  
53 1.5% 4%  
54 0.5% 2%  
55 2% 2%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.2% 99.7%  
32 0.7% 99.5%  
33 2% 98.8%  
34 0.9% 97%  
35 13% 96%  
36 14% 83%  
37 16% 69%  
38 17% 53% Median
39 8% 36%  
40 11% 28%  
41 16% 17%  
42 0.4% 0.9%  
43 0.2% 0.5%  
44 0.2% 0.3%  
45 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 24% 100%  
4 40% 76% Median
5 13% 36%  
6 17% 23%  
7 3% 6%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.6% 0.7%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 9% 93%  
2 20% 84%  
3 27% 64% Median
4 10% 37%  
5 8% 27%  
6 4% 19%  
7 5% 15% Last Result
8 9% 10%  
9 0.7% 1.1%  
10 0.3% 0.4%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Median
1 5% 12%  
2 7% 7% Last Result
3 0.6% 0.6%  
4 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 29% 100%  
1 32% 71% Median
2 5% 39%  
3 4% 35%  
4 28% 30% Last Result
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0.1% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 19% 100%  
1 62% 81% Median
2 6% 20%  
3 13% 14% Last Result
4 0.6% 0.6%  
5 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 110 100% 107–116 107–117 106–118 104–121
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 84 76% 79–88 79–90 78–91 76–92
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 70 0% 65–75 65–75 64–76 62–78
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 69 0% 64–73 64–74 63–75 61–76
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 69 0% 64–72 64–73 63–74 61–76
Fine Gael 49 66 0% 61–68 61–69 60–69 58–69
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 66 0% 61–69 61–69 60–69 58–70
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 50 0% 46–56 46–58 44–59 41–60
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 49 0% 45–55 44–57 43–58 41–59
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 48 0% 45–55 44–56 43–58 41–59
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 45 0% 42–52 42–52 41–53 40–55

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0.2% 99.9%  
104 0.9% 99.8%  
105 0.6% 98.9%  
106 2% 98%  
107 9% 96%  
108 8% 86%  
109 9% 78%  
110 24% 69%  
111 6% 45% Median
112 9% 39%  
113 4% 30%  
114 10% 26%  
115 5% 16%  
116 2% 11%  
117 6% 8%  
118 2% 3%  
119 0.2% 0.9%  
120 0.1% 0.7%  
121 0.5% 0.6%  
122 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.6% 99.8%  
77 1.0% 99.2%  
78 3% 98%  
79 14% 95%  
80 5% 81%  
81 7% 76% Majority
82 8% 69%  
83 7% 61% Median
84 8% 54%  
85 16% 46%  
86 9% 31%  
87 7% 21%  
88 5% 14%  
89 1.4% 9%  
90 4% 8%  
91 1.3% 4%  
92 2% 2%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
62 0.4% 99.6%  
63 0.5% 99.2%  
64 3% 98.6%  
65 9% 95%  
66 2% 86%  
67 4% 84%  
68 6% 80%  
69 10% 74%  
70 24% 64% Median
71 15% 41%  
72 5% 25%  
73 5% 20%  
74 4% 16%  
75 8% 12%  
76 2% 4%  
77 0.9% 2%  
78 0.9% 1.1%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100% Last Result
59 0% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 0.4% 99.6%  
62 1.3% 99.1%  
63 2% 98%  
64 11% 96%  
65 1.3% 85%  
66 1.2% 83%  
67 6% 82%  
68 14% 76%  
69 20% 61% Median
70 17% 42%  
71 6% 24%  
72 7% 18%  
73 2% 11%  
74 6% 9%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.9% 1.1%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100% Last Result
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 0.7% 99.6%  
62 1.4% 98.9%  
63 2% 98%  
64 11% 96%  
65 1.3% 85%  
66 1.2% 83%  
67 7% 82%  
68 15% 75%  
69 23% 60% Median
70 14% 37%  
71 5% 23%  
72 10% 17%  
73 3% 7%  
74 2% 4%  
75 0.7% 1.4%  
76 0.5% 0.7%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.1% 99.8%  
58 0.7% 99.7%  
59 0.9% 99.0%  
60 3% 98%  
61 6% 95%  
62 10% 89%  
63 2% 79%  
64 8% 77%  
65 10% 68%  
66 30% 59% Median
67 14% 29%  
68 7% 15%  
69 7% 7%  
70 0.3% 0.5%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.1% 99.8%  
58 0.7% 99.7%  
59 0.7% 99.0%  
60 3% 98%  
61 6% 95%  
62 11% 90%  
63 2% 79%  
64 8% 77%  
65 8% 69%  
66 28% 61% Median
67 13% 33%  
68 7% 20%  
69 11% 12%  
70 1.3% 2%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.6% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.4%  
43 0.9% 99.3%  
44 2% 98%  
45 1.5% 97%  
46 7% 95%  
47 10% 88%  
48 19% 79%  
49 5% 60% Median
50 6% 54%  
51 6% 48%  
52 6% 42%  
53 5% 36%  
54 9% 31%  
55 11% 22%  
56 2% 11% Last Result
57 3% 8%  
58 2% 5%  
59 3% 4%  
60 0.6% 1.1%  
61 0.2% 0.5%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.7% 99.9%  
42 0.4% 99.2%  
43 3% 98.8%  
44 2% 96%  
45 6% 94%  
46 6% 88%  
47 22% 82%  
48 8% 60% Median
49 3% 52%  
50 9% 48%  
51 9% 39%  
52 5% 30%  
53 2% 26% Last Result
54 12% 23%  
55 3% 11%  
56 3% 8%  
57 2% 5%  
58 2% 3%  
59 1.0% 1.3%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.7% 99.9%  
42 0.6% 99.2%  
43 3% 98.6%  
44 5% 95%  
45 4% 90%  
46 6% 86%  
47 21% 80%  
48 11% 59% Median
49 5% 48%  
50 5% 43%  
51 9% 38% Last Result
52 4% 29%  
53 2% 25%  
54 12% 23%  
55 3% 11%  
56 3% 8%  
57 2% 5%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.9% 1.2%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 1.2% 99.9%  
41 2% 98.7%  
42 15% 96%  
43 9% 82%  
44 18% 73%  
45 10% 55% Median
46 10% 45% Last Result
47 3% 35%  
48 4% 31%  
49 3% 27%  
50 4% 24%  
51 4% 20%  
52 13% 16%  
53 1.4% 4%  
54 0.5% 2%  
55 2% 2%  
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations