Opinion Poll by Red C for The Sunday Business Post, 22 September 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 30.2% 28.2–31.9% 27.7–32.4% 27.2–32.9% 26.4–33.8%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 26.2% 24.3–27.8% 23.8–28.3% 23.4–28.8% 22.6–29.7%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 16.1% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.2–19.2%
Independent 15.9% 8.5% 7.4–9.7% 7.1–10.0% 6.9–10.4% 6.4–11.0%
Labour Party 6.6% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.4–7.0%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Social Democrats 3.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.3% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 60 56–64 54–65 51–65 48–66
Fianna Fáil 44 47 44–51 42–52 40–53 38–57
Sinn Féin 23 32 30–34 28–35 26–35 21–35
Independent 19 4 3–5 3–6 3–8 3–11
Labour Party 7 5 1–9 1–12 0–12 0–12
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 4 3–8 3–9 2–9 2–9
Social Democrats 3 5 3–8 3–8 3–9 3–9
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 0 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2
Independents 4 Change 4 2 2–3 1–3 1–3 0–3
Renua Ireland 0 1 0–2 0–3 0–3 0–3

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.4% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.6%  
49 0.2% 99.4% Last Result
50 0.6% 99.2%  
51 2% 98.6%  
52 0.3% 97%  
53 0.9% 96%  
54 0.8% 96%  
55 4% 95%  
56 7% 91%  
57 2% 83%  
58 11% 82%  
59 4% 71%  
60 27% 67% Median
61 4% 40%  
62 12% 36%  
63 13% 23%  
64 4% 11%  
65 5% 7%  
66 2% 2%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 1.0% 99.6%  
39 0.4% 98.6%  
40 0.7% 98%  
41 0.6% 97%  
42 2% 97%  
43 3% 95%  
44 9% 91% Last Result
45 23% 82%  
46 6% 59%  
47 16% 53% Median
48 5% 37%  
49 14% 32%  
50 2% 18%  
51 9% 16%  
52 2% 7%  
53 3% 5%  
54 0.3% 2%  
55 0.4% 2%  
56 0.1% 1.1%  
57 0.9% 1.0%  
58 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.6% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.3%  
23 0.5% 99.3% Last Result
24 0.4% 98.8%  
25 0.4% 98%  
26 0.7% 98%  
27 2% 97%  
28 1.4% 95%  
29 2% 94%  
30 17% 92%  
31 8% 75%  
32 28% 67% Median
33 28% 39%  
34 6% 11%  
35 5% 6%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 26% 100%  
4 60% 74% Median
5 6% 13%  
6 3% 8%  
7 2% 5%  
8 1.5% 3%  
9 0.9% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.7%  
11 0.1% 0.6%  
12 0.3% 0.5%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 19% 96%  
2 7% 77%  
3 8% 70%  
4 9% 62%  
5 7% 53% Median
6 16% 46%  
7 14% 31% Last Result
8 4% 17%  
9 6% 13%  
10 1.1% 7%  
11 0.5% 6%  
12 5% 5%  
13 0.1% 0.4%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100%  
2 3% 99.7%  
3 39% 97%  
4 23% 58% Median
5 13% 35%  
6 11% 22% Last Result
7 0.5% 11%  
8 0.7% 10%  
9 9% 9%  
10 0.5% 0.5%  
11 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 11% 100% Last Result
4 37% 89%  
5 27% 53% Median
6 7% 25%  
7 5% 18%  
8 10% 13%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0.2% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 80% 100% Median
1 12% 20%  
2 8% 8% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100%  
1 7% 98.8%  
2 75% 92% Median
3 17% 17%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 47% 100% Last Result
1 36% 53% Median
2 11% 17%  
3 6% 7%  
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 107 100% 103–111 102–112 99–113 97–116
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 79 24% 76–81 73–83 72–86 69–88
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 61 70 0.1% 65–75 65–75 62–77 58–79
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 66 0% 61–70 59–72 58–72 53–74
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 65 0% 61–70 59–72 58–72 53–73
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 60 0% 56–64 54–65 51–66 48–67
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 56 56 0% 52–63 52–63 50–66 46–67
Fine Gael 49 60 0% 56–64 54–65 51–65 48–66
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 51 0% 48–59 46–59 44–61 41–62
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 51 0% 46–59 46–59 44–60 41–62
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 47 0% 44–52 43–53 41–55 38–57

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0.1% 100%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.3% 99.8%  
98 0.3% 99.4%  
99 2% 99.1%  
100 0.7% 97%  
101 1.0% 97%  
102 2% 96%  
103 5% 93%  
104 7% 89%  
105 16% 81%  
106 9% 65%  
107 15% 56% Median
108 13% 41%  
109 10% 27%  
110 5% 17%  
111 3% 12%  
112 5% 8%  
113 2% 4%  
114 0.4% 2%  
115 0.7% 1.3%  
116 0.6% 0.7%  
117 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100% Last Result
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 0.3% 99.7%  
70 0.2% 99.4%  
71 2% 99.2%  
72 2% 98%  
73 2% 96%  
74 2% 94%  
75 1.4% 92%  
76 13% 91%  
77 7% 78%  
78 21% 71%  
79 12% 50% Median
80 14% 38%  
81 15% 24% Majority
82 1.0% 10%  
83 4% 9%  
84 0.7% 4%  
85 0.9% 4%  
86 0.7% 3%  
87 1.3% 2%  
88 0.5% 0.8%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.4% 100%  
57 0% 99.6%  
58 0.1% 99.6%  
59 0.2% 99.4%  
60 0.6% 99.2%  
61 0.3% 98.6% Last Result
62 1.4% 98%  
63 0.8% 97%  
64 0.7% 96%  
65 9% 95%  
66 6% 86%  
67 8% 80%  
68 6% 72%  
69 2% 67%  
70 21% 64% Median
71 9% 43%  
72 6% 34%  
73 6% 28%  
74 9% 22%  
75 9% 13%  
76 1.0% 4%  
77 2% 3%  
78 0.8% 2%  
79 0.5% 0.7%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1% Majority
82 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.3% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.6%  
52 0% 99.6%  
53 0.1% 99.5%  
54 0.3% 99.5%  
55 0.4% 99.2%  
56 0.4% 98.9%  
57 0.8% 98%  
58 0.8% 98% Last Result
59 4% 97%  
60 2% 93%  
61 17% 91%  
62 2% 74%  
63 3% 72%  
64 6% 69%  
65 9% 63% Median
66 27% 54%  
67 3% 26%  
68 7% 24%  
69 5% 17%  
70 4% 12%  
71 1.3% 8%  
72 5% 7%  
73 0.8% 2%  
74 0.5% 0.8%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.4% 100%  
51 0% 99.6%  
52 0% 99.6%  
53 0.1% 99.5%  
54 0.2% 99.4%  
55 0.4% 99.2%  
56 0.4% 98.8% Last Result
57 0.9% 98%  
58 1.3% 98%  
59 4% 96%  
60 2% 93%  
61 17% 91%  
62 3% 74%  
63 2% 71%  
64 13% 69%  
65 14% 56% Median
66 16% 42%  
67 3% 26%  
68 9% 23%  
69 2% 14%  
70 5% 12%  
71 0.7% 7%  
72 6% 7%  
73 0.7% 1.1%  
74 0.2% 0.4%  
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.4% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.6%  
49 0.2% 99.4%  
50 0.6% 99.3%  
51 2% 98.6% Last Result
52 0.2% 97%  
53 0.8% 97%  
54 0.8% 96%  
55 4% 95%  
56 7% 91%  
57 1.2% 84%  
58 4% 82%  
59 10% 78%  
60 28% 68% Median
61 4% 40%  
62 7% 36%  
63 11% 29%  
64 11% 19%  
65 4% 7%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.4% 0.8%  
68 0.4% 0.5%  
69 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0% 99.9%  
46 0.4% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.5%  
48 0.4% 99.4%  
49 0.4% 99.0%  
50 2% 98.7%  
51 2% 97%  
52 13% 95%  
53 7% 82%  
54 5% 76%  
55 15% 71%  
56 13% 56% Last Result
57 5% 42% Median
58 3% 37%  
59 2% 34%  
60 4% 33%  
61 5% 29%  
62 6% 24%  
63 13% 18%  
64 0.7% 4%  
65 0.8% 4%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.4% 0.8%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.4% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.6%  
49 0.2% 99.4% Last Result
50 0.6% 99.2%  
51 2% 98.6%  
52 0.3% 97%  
53 0.9% 96%  
54 0.8% 96%  
55 4% 95%  
56 7% 91%  
57 2% 83%  
58 11% 82%  
59 4% 71%  
60 27% 67% Median
61 4% 40%  
62 12% 36%  
63 13% 23%  
64 4% 11%  
65 5% 7%  
66 2% 2%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.5% 99.8%  
42 0.3% 99.3%  
43 0.8% 99.0%  
44 0.9% 98%  
45 0.7% 97%  
46 2% 97%  
47 3% 95%  
48 20% 92%  
49 7% 72%  
50 8% 65%  
51 16% 57%  
52 8% 41% Median
53 2% 34% Last Result
54 2% 32%  
55 4% 30%  
56 4% 26%  
57 0.8% 22%  
58 5% 21%  
59 12% 16%  
60 1.2% 4%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.7% 1.0%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.4% 99.7%  
42 0.3% 99.3%  
43 1.4% 99.0%  
44 0.5% 98%  
45 0.8% 97%  
46 7% 96%  
47 2% 89%  
48 16% 87%  
49 7% 72%  
50 11% 64%  
51 13% 54% Last Result
52 7% 41% Median
53 2% 33%  
54 2% 32%  
55 5% 30%  
56 3% 25%  
57 0.5% 22%  
58 11% 21%  
59 7% 10%  
60 1.1% 3%  
61 0.6% 2%  
62 0.7% 1.0%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.4% 99.6%  
39 1.0% 99.2%  
40 0.7% 98%  
41 0.5% 98%  
42 2% 97%  
43 3% 95%  
44 5% 92%  
45 19% 87%  
46 14% 68% Last Result
47 15% 54% Median
48 6% 38%  
49 13% 32%  
50 2% 19%  
51 5% 17%  
52 7% 12%  
53 2% 5%  
54 0.5% 3%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.2% 1.2%  
57 1.0% 1.1%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations