Opinion Poll by Ipsos MRBI for Irish Times, 2 October 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 31.0% 29.2–32.7% 28.8–33.2% 28.4–33.6% 27.6–34.4%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 29.0% 27.3–30.6% 26.8–31.1% 26.4–31.6% 25.7–32.4%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 18.9% 17.5–20.4% 17.1–20.9% 16.8–21.2% 16.2–22.0%
Independent 15.9% 7.6% 6.7–8.7% 6.4–9.0% 6.2–9.2% 5.8–9.8%
Labour Party 6.6% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.7%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 1.9–4.5%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.3%
Social Democrats 3.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.3%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.6% 0.4–1.9%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.1% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 60 55–64 54–66 53–66 51–66
Fianna Fáil 44 54 50–56 49–58 48–58 46–60
Sinn Féin 23 35 32–36 32–37 31–37 30–39
Independent 19 4 3–4 3–5 3–5 2–6
Labour Party 7 1 0–3 0–4 0–6 0–9
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 1 0–2 0–3 0–3 0–3
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 1 1–2 1–3 0–3 0–4
Social Democrats 3 3 1–3 1–4 1–4 1–4
Independents 4 Change 4 2 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–3
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0.2% 100%  
51 0.6% 99.8%  
52 1.1% 99.2%  
53 2% 98%  
54 2% 96%  
55 4% 94%  
56 0.8% 90%  
57 2% 89%  
58 19% 87%  
59 17% 68%  
60 12% 51% Median
61 10% 39%  
62 9% 28%  
63 6% 19%  
64 5% 13%  
65 3% 8%  
66 5% 5%  
67 0.3% 0.3%  
68 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0% 99.9% Last Result
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.8% 99.7%  
47 0.8% 98.9%  
48 3% 98%  
49 3% 95%  
50 9% 92%  
51 9% 83%  
52 4% 74%  
53 13% 70%  
54 19% 57% Median
55 21% 38%  
56 7% 17%  
57 2% 10%  
58 6% 8%  
59 1.3% 2%  
60 0.7% 0.9%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.4% 100%  
30 1.0% 99.5%  
31 1.3% 98.5%  
32 12% 97%  
33 12% 86%  
34 17% 73%  
35 40% 56% Median
36 8% 16%  
37 6% 9%  
38 1.4% 2%  
39 0.5% 0.7%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.6% 100%  
3 40% 99.4%  
4 51% 59% Median
5 7% 8%  
6 0.9% 1.2%  
7 0.1% 0.2%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 28% 100%  
1 30% 72% Median
2 13% 42%  
3 21% 29%  
4 4% 8%  
5 0.8% 4%  
6 1.3% 3%  
7 0.5% 2% Last Result
8 0.7% 1.5%  
9 0.6% 0.7%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 33% 100%  
1 18% 67% Median
2 42% 49% Last Result
3 6% 7%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 51% 96% Median
2 39% 45%  
3 6% 7%  
4 0.9% 0.9%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 26% 99.9%  
2 17% 74%  
3 47% 57% Last Result, Median
4 10% 10%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 16% 99.9%  
2 78% 84% Median
3 6% 6%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 113 100% 110–116 109–116 108–118 105–119
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 88 99.3% 83–91 82–93 81–94 80–95
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 65 0% 61–70 60–71 59–72 57–74
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 63 0% 59–67 57–68 56–70 54–71
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 62 0% 58–66 55–66 55–68 53–69
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 61 0% 57–66 56–67 54–67 53–68
Fine Gael 49 60 0% 55–64 54–66 53–66 51–66
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 59 0% 54–63 53–64 53–65 50–67
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 56 0% 52–60 51–61 50–62 47–65
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 56 0% 51–58 50–59 48–61 46–63
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 55 0% 51–58 50–60 49–60 46–61

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0.7% 99.9%  
106 0.3% 99.2%  
107 0.9% 99.0%  
108 1.4% 98%  
109 3% 97%  
110 4% 94%  
111 5% 90%  
112 8% 85%  
113 38% 77%  
114 13% 39% Median
115 8% 26%  
116 14% 18%  
117 1.4% 4%  
118 2% 3%  
119 0.6% 1.0%  
120 0.4% 0.4%  
121 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0.2% 100%  
80 0.5% 99.8%  
81 2% 99.3% Majority
82 3% 97%  
83 8% 94%  
84 4% 87%  
85 3% 82%  
86 7% 79%  
87 12% 72%  
88 12% 60%  
89 16% 48% Median
90 21% 32%  
91 2% 11%  
92 2% 9%  
93 5% 8%  
94 2% 3%  
95 0.9% 1.1%  
96 0.2% 0.2%  
97 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.6% 99.9%  
58 1.0% 99.4%  
59 2% 98%  
60 4% 97%  
61 3% 92% Last Result
62 17% 89%  
63 5% 72%  
64 8% 68%  
65 19% 60% Median
66 12% 41%  
67 6% 30%  
68 6% 24%  
69 7% 18%  
70 6% 11%  
71 2% 5%  
72 0.5% 3%  
73 2% 2%  
74 0.6% 0.6%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.4% 99.9%  
55 1.0% 99.5%  
56 3% 98.5%  
57 4% 96%  
58 1.2% 92% Last Result
59 15% 91%  
60 4% 76%  
61 3% 72%  
62 14% 69% Median
63 9% 55%  
64 21% 45%  
65 5% 25%  
66 4% 20%  
67 8% 15%  
68 4% 8%  
69 0.9% 4%  
70 1.4% 3%  
71 1.0% 1.2%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.3% 100%  
53 0.8% 99.7%  
54 1.4% 98.9%  
55 5% 98%  
56 1.1% 93% Last Result
57 1.0% 92%  
58 2% 91%  
59 16% 88%  
60 6% 73%  
61 9% 67% Median
62 26% 57%  
63 8% 31%  
64 6% 23%  
65 6% 17%  
66 6% 11%  
67 2% 5%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.9% 1.1%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100% Last Result
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.5% 99.7%  
54 2% 99.2%  
55 2% 97%  
56 2% 95%  
57 4% 93%  
58 15% 89%  
59 5% 74%  
60 8% 69%  
61 23% 61% Median
62 5% 38%  
63 10% 33%  
64 7% 24%  
65 6% 17%  
66 4% 11%  
67 4% 7%  
68 2% 2%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0.2% 100%  
51 0.6% 99.8%  
52 1.1% 99.2%  
53 2% 98%  
54 2% 96%  
55 4% 94%  
56 0.8% 90%  
57 2% 89%  
58 19% 87%  
59 17% 68%  
60 12% 51% Median
61 10% 39%  
62 9% 28%  
63 6% 19%  
64 5% 13%  
65 3% 8%  
66 5% 5%  
67 0.3% 0.3%  
68 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.3% 100%  
50 0.5% 99.7%  
51 0.2% 99.2%  
52 1.1% 99.0%  
53 3% 98%  
54 8% 95%  
55 3% 87%  
56 8% 84% Last Result
57 7% 76%  
58 6% 70%  
59 26% 63% Median
60 17% 38%  
61 6% 21%  
62 3% 14%  
63 5% 11%  
64 2% 6%  
65 1.4% 4%  
66 0.9% 2%  
67 0.9% 1.3%  
68 0.3% 0.5%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.3% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.7%  
48 0.1% 99.4%  
49 1.1% 99.3%  
50 2% 98%  
51 4% 96%  
52 7% 92%  
53 4% 85% Last Result
54 5% 81%  
55 8% 76%  
56 21% 68% Median
57 12% 47%  
58 12% 35%  
59 11% 23%  
60 5% 12%  
61 3% 7%  
62 2% 4%  
63 0.7% 2%  
64 0.9% 2%  
65 0.7% 0.9%  
66 0.2% 0.2%  
67 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.5% 99.9%  
47 0.3% 99.4%  
48 2% 99.1%  
49 2% 97%  
50 4% 96%  
51 7% 92% Last Result
52 4% 84%  
53 8% 80%  
54 9% 72%  
55 9% 63% Median
56 20% 55%  
57 22% 35%  
58 5% 13%  
59 3% 8%  
60 1.5% 5%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.7% 2%  
63 0.8% 1.0%  
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.5% 99.9% Last Result
47 0.4% 99.4%  
48 0.7% 99.0%  
49 2% 98%  
50 4% 97%  
51 5% 92%  
52 9% 87%  
53 8% 78%  
54 10% 69%  
55 23% 59% Median
56 16% 37%  
57 9% 21%  
58 2% 12%  
59 2% 10%  
60 6% 7%  
61 1.5% 2%  
62 0.1% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations