Opinion Poll by Behaviour and Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 10 October 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 31.0% 29.0–32.9% 28.5–33.5% 28.0–34.0% 27.1–35.0%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 26.9% 25.1–28.8% 24.6–29.4% 24.1–29.9% 23.3–30.8%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 18.9% 17.3–20.7% 16.9–21.2% 16.5–21.6% 15.8–22.4%
Independent 15.9% 10.2% 9.0–11.6% 8.6–11.9% 8.4–12.3% 7.8–13.0%
Labour Party 6.6% 4.0% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.3% 2.9–5.5% 2.6–6.0%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.1% 1.1–3.5%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.3% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.7–2.3% 0.6–2.6%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.9% 0.4–2.2%
Social Democrats 3.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.9% 0.4–2.2%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.1% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.0–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 62 58–67 55–67 54–68 51–69
Fianna Fáil 44 50 45–54 43–55 42–57 41–59
Sinn Féin 23 37 34–40 34–42 33–42 31–43
Independent 19 6 4–9 4–10 4–11 3–15
Labour Party 7 1 0–2 0–4 0–4 0–6
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–2
Independents 4 Change 4 3 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–5
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Social Democrats 3 1 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
50 0.1% 99.8%  
51 0.4% 99.6%  
52 0.1% 99.3%  
53 0.4% 99.2%  
54 1.5% 98.7%  
55 2% 97%  
56 1.0% 95%  
57 2% 94%  
58 2% 92%  
59 10% 90%  
60 10% 80%  
61 15% 70%  
62 16% 55% Median
63 3% 39%  
64 9% 36%  
65 5% 27%  
66 10% 22%  
67 9% 11%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.6% 0.6%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 1.5% 99.5%  
42 2% 98%  
43 4% 96%  
44 2% 92% Last Result
45 8% 90%  
46 2% 82%  
47 13% 80%  
48 8% 68%  
49 5% 59%  
50 10% 54% Median
51 3% 45%  
52 10% 41%  
53 13% 31%  
54 12% 18%  
55 3% 7%  
56 1.2% 4%  
57 1.1% 3%  
58 0.5% 2%  
59 1.1% 1.2%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.7% 99.7%  
32 1.4% 99.0%  
33 1.3% 98%  
34 9% 96%  
35 17% 87%  
36 17% 71%  
37 27% 54% Median
38 14% 27%  
39 2% 13%  
40 3% 11%  
41 2% 8%  
42 5% 6%  
43 0.4% 0.5%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.5% 100%  
4 25% 99.5%  
5 8% 74%  
6 19% 66% Median
7 17% 48%  
8 16% 31%  
9 9% 15%  
10 3% 6%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.4% 2%  
13 0.7% 1.4%  
14 0.2% 0.7%  
15 0.4% 0.6%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 50% 100%  
1 4% 50% Median
2 36% 46%  
3 3% 9%  
4 5% 6%  
5 1.2% 2%  
6 0.3% 0.5%  
7 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Median
1 5% 7%  
2 1.4% 2% Last Result
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100%  
1 23% 86%  
2 11% 63%  
3 6% 52% Median
4 36% 46% Last Result
5 10% 10%  
6 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0.1% 0.2%  
3 0.1% 0.2%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 26% 100%  
1 45% 74% Median
2 11% 29%  
3 18% 18% Last Result
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 112 100% 108–116 107–117 105–117 101–119
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 86 89% 80–92 79–94 78–95 77–96
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 65 0% 60–69 59–70 57–71 54–71
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 63 0% 59–68 58–68 56–70 53–70
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 63 0% 59–68 57–68 56–70 53–70
Fine Gael 49 62 0% 58–67 55–67 54–68 51–69
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 62 0% 59–67 55–67 54–68 51–69
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 53 0% 47–57 46–58 45–59 42–61
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 52 0% 46–55 44–57 44–58 41–61
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 52 0% 46–55 44–57 43–58 41–61
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 50 0% 45–54 43–55 42–57 41–59

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0.5% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.4%  
103 0.3% 99.3%  
104 0.5% 98.9%  
105 1.0% 98%  
106 2% 97%  
107 5% 95%  
108 3% 91%  
109 15% 87%  
110 7% 73%  
111 12% 66%  
112 10% 54% Median
113 11% 44%  
114 9% 33%  
115 13% 23%  
116 3% 10%  
117 6% 7%  
118 0.9% 2%  
119 0.7% 0.8%  
120 0.1% 0.2%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 2% 99.8%  
78 2% 98%  
79 5% 96%  
80 1.4% 91%  
81 5% 89% Majority
82 2% 85%  
83 3% 83%  
84 16% 79%  
85 9% 63%  
86 8% 54%  
87 3% 46% Median
88 7% 43%  
89 11% 36%  
90 4% 25%  
91 10% 21%  
92 3% 11%  
93 1.4% 8%  
94 4% 7%  
95 1.0% 3%  
96 1.3% 2%  
97 0.2% 0.5%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 99.9%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.1% 99.8%  
53 0.1% 99.7%  
54 0.4% 99.6%  
55 0.3% 99.2%  
56 0.2% 98.9%  
57 2% 98.7%  
58 2% 97%  
59 2% 95%  
60 9% 94%  
61 11% 85% Last Result
62 4% 74%  
63 9% 70%  
64 8% 61% Median
65 14% 53%  
66 9% 40%  
67 3% 30%  
68 12% 27%  
69 6% 15%  
70 5% 8%  
71 4% 4%  
72 0.1% 0.3%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.1% 99.8%  
52 0.1% 99.7%  
53 0.3% 99.6%  
54 0.5% 99.3%  
55 0.5% 98.8%  
56 0.8% 98%  
57 2% 97%  
58 2% 95% Last Result
59 7% 93%  
60 4% 86%  
61 12% 82%  
62 15% 70%  
63 8% 55% Median
64 13% 47%  
65 4% 34%  
66 8% 30%  
67 10% 23%  
68 8% 13%  
69 1.4% 5%  
70 3% 3%  
71 0% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.8%  
52 0.1% 99.7%  
53 0.3% 99.6%  
54 0.6% 99.2%  
55 0.4% 98.6%  
56 0.9% 98% Last Result
57 2% 97%  
58 2% 95%  
59 7% 93%  
60 4% 86%  
61 12% 82%  
62 14% 69%  
63 9% 55% Median
64 12% 46%  
65 4% 33%  
66 7% 29%  
67 10% 22%  
68 8% 12%  
69 1.1% 4%  
70 3% 3%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
50 0.1% 99.8%  
51 0.4% 99.6%  
52 0.1% 99.3%  
53 0.4% 99.2%  
54 1.5% 98.7%  
55 2% 97%  
56 1.0% 95%  
57 2% 94%  
58 2% 92%  
59 10% 90%  
60 10% 80%  
61 15% 70%  
62 16% 55% Median
63 3% 39%  
64 9% 36%  
65 5% 27%  
66 10% 22%  
67 9% 11%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.6% 0.6%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.1% 99.8%  
51 0.4% 99.7% Last Result
52 0.1% 99.3%  
53 0.4% 99.2%  
54 1.4% 98.8%  
55 2% 97%  
56 0.9% 95%  
57 2% 94%  
58 2% 92%  
59 10% 90%  
60 10% 80%  
61 13% 70%  
62 17% 57% Median
63 4% 40%  
64 9% 36%  
65 4% 27%  
66 11% 23%  
67 9% 12%  
68 3% 4%  
69 0.7% 0.9%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.3% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.6%  
43 0.7% 99.4%  
44 0.5% 98.7%  
45 2% 98%  
46 2% 96%  
47 5% 94%  
48 10% 89%  
49 7% 79%  
50 7% 72%  
51 3% 65%  
52 6% 62% Median
53 16% 56%  
54 14% 39%  
55 10% 25%  
56 4% 15% Last Result
57 5% 11%  
58 2% 6%  
59 2% 4%  
60 0.9% 2%  
61 1.1% 1.5%  
62 0.3% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.5% 99.8%  
42 0.6% 99.3%  
43 1.1% 98.7%  
44 3% 98%  
45 2% 94%  
46 3% 92%  
47 14% 89%  
48 3% 74%  
49 8% 71%  
50 6% 64%  
51 6% 58% Median
52 14% 53%  
53 11% 39% Last Result
54 12% 27%  
55 7% 16%  
56 3% 9%  
57 3% 6%  
58 1.1% 3%  
59 0.6% 2%  
60 0.3% 1.3%  
61 0.9% 1.0%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.7% 99.8%  
42 0.5% 99.1%  
43 1.3% 98.6%  
44 3% 97%  
45 2% 94%  
46 3% 91%  
47 14% 88%  
48 3% 74%  
49 8% 71%  
50 7% 63%  
51 4% 56% Last Result, Median
52 14% 52%  
53 11% 38%  
54 12% 27%  
55 7% 15%  
56 3% 8%  
57 2% 5%  
58 1.1% 3%  
59 0.6% 2%  
60 0.3% 1.3%  
61 0.9% 0.9%  
62 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 1.3% 99.7%  
42 2% 98%  
43 4% 96%  
44 2% 93%  
45 8% 91%  
46 2% 83% Last Result
47 13% 81%  
48 7% 68%  
49 6% 61%  
50 10% 55% Median
51 3% 45%  
52 10% 42%  
53 13% 32%  
54 12% 19%  
55 3% 7%  
56 1.3% 4%  
57 1.1% 3%  
58 0.5% 2%  
59 1.2% 1.3%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations