Opinion Poll by Red C for The Sunday Business Post, 20 October 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 28.9% 27.1–30.8% 26.6–31.3% 26.2–31.8% 25.3–32.7%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 25.0% 23.2–26.7% 22.7–27.2% 22.3–27.7% 21.5–28.6%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 14.0% 12.6–15.4% 12.3–15.9% 11.9–16.2% 11.3–17.0%
Independent 15.9% 10.2% 9.0–11.5% 8.7–11.9% 8.4–12.2% 7.9–12.8%
Labour Party 6.6% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Social Democrats 3.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.3% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.8–2.2% 0.6–2.5%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.1% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 58 54–63 54–65 51–66 46–68
Fianna Fáil 44 45 45–49 44–52 42–53 39–54
Sinn Féin 23 28 24–31 20–32 16–33 15–34
Independent 19 8 5–15 4–15 3–15 3–16
Labour Party 7 6 5–11 3–11 2–11 1–14
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 3 3–6 3–9 3–9 3–10
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 2 1–3 1–3 1–4 1–5
Social Democrats 3 3 3 3 3–4 1–4
Independents 4 Change 4 4 2–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.6% 100%  
47 0.5% 99.4%  
48 0.7% 99.0%  
49 0.5% 98% Last Result
50 0.1% 98%  
51 0.4% 98%  
52 0.4% 97%  
53 0.5% 97%  
54 34% 96%  
55 3% 63%  
56 0.4% 59%  
57 0.2% 59%  
58 24% 59% Median
59 5% 35%  
60 0.3% 29%  
61 19% 29%  
62 0.3% 11%  
63 0.3% 10%  
64 3% 10%  
65 4% 7%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.3% 1.4%  
68 1.0% 1.1%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.9%  
39 0.5% 99.6%  
40 0.2% 99.1%  
41 0.3% 99.0%  
42 1.4% 98.7%  
43 2% 97%  
44 2% 96% Last Result
45 53% 93% Median
46 2% 41%  
47 15% 39%  
48 13% 23%  
49 2% 11%  
50 3% 9%  
51 0.5% 6%  
52 2% 5%  
53 1.4% 3%  
54 1.2% 1.5%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 1.1% 100%  
16 2% 98.9%  
17 0% 97%  
18 0% 97%  
19 0.1% 97%  
20 5% 97%  
21 0.3% 92%  
22 0.1% 92%  
23 2% 92% Last Result
24 0.6% 90%  
25 2% 90%  
26 11% 88%  
27 26% 77%  
28 6% 51% Median
29 29% 45%  
30 0.9% 16%  
31 7% 15%  
32 4% 8%  
33 3% 3%  
34 0.6% 0.6%  
35 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 3% 100%  
4 3% 97%  
5 5% 94%  
6 3% 89%  
7 26% 86%  
8 24% 60% Median
9 2% 36%  
10 1.4% 34%  
11 1.0% 33%  
12 3% 32%  
13 0.3% 29%  
14 0.1% 28%  
15 28% 28%  
16 0.6% 0.6%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 1.3% 99.9%  
2 3% 98.7%  
3 2% 95%  
4 2% 93%  
5 34% 91%  
6 14% 57% Median
7 12% 43% Last Result
8 3% 32%  
9 2% 29%  
10 0.8% 27%  
11 25% 26%  
12 0.1% 1.1%  
13 0.2% 1.0%  
14 0.5% 0.8%  
15 0.2% 0.3%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 78% 100% Median
4 7% 22%  
5 4% 16%  
6 2% 11% Last Result
7 2% 10%  
8 2% 8%  
9 5% 6%  
10 0.8% 0.8%  
11 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 10% 99.7%  
2 66% 90% Last Result, Median
3 21% 24%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.9% 100%  
2 1.0% 99.1%  
3 94% 98% Last Result, Median
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100%  
1 0.9% 92%  
2 12% 91%  
3 5% 79%  
4 71% 74% Last Result, Median
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 103 100% 99–109 99–113 98–115 96–117
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 74 3% 71–78 68–79 67–81 64–86
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 70 0.4% 64–74 64–77 63–78 56–79
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 67 0.1% 61–71 61–73 60–75 53–76
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 66 0% 59–69 59–72 57–73 51–74
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 60 0% 56–65 56–67 53–68 48–70
Fine Gael 49 58 0% 54–63 54–65 51–66 46–68
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 60 0% 55–61 55–62 51–65 49–67
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 57 0% 52–58 51–59 48–62 46–64
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 54 0% 50–56 49–58 46–60 45–61
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 47 0% 47–51 45–54 44–55 41–57

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0.3% 99.9%  
95 0% 99.7%  
96 0.8% 99.7%  
97 0.5% 98.9%  
98 1.3% 98%  
99 28% 97%  
100 0.1% 69%  
101 8% 68%  
102 0.1% 61%  
103 25% 60% Median
104 1.3% 36%  
105 0.4% 35%  
106 4% 34%  
107 0.8% 30%  
108 7% 29%  
109 13% 23%  
110 1.4% 10%  
111 1.4% 8%  
112 0.4% 7%  
113 2% 6%  
114 1.0% 4%  
115 1.4% 3%  
116 0% 2%  
117 2% 2%  
118 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0% 99.7%  
64 0.3% 99.7%  
65 0.9% 99.4%  
66 0.3% 98.5%  
67 2% 98% Last Result
68 3% 96%  
69 0.5% 93%  
70 2% 93%  
71 0.9% 90%  
72 26% 90%  
73 2% 64% Median
74 38% 61%  
75 8% 23%  
76 0.4% 16%  
77 3% 15%  
78 7% 12%  
79 2% 5%  
80 0.1% 3%  
81 0.9% 3% Majority
82 0.3% 2%  
83 0.9% 2%  
84 0% 0.9%  
85 0.1% 0.9%  
86 0.7% 0.8%  
87 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.5% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.5%  
57 0.2% 99.3%  
58 0.6% 99.1%  
59 0% 98.5%  
60 0.2% 98%  
61 0.1% 98% Last Result
62 0.5% 98%  
63 0.5% 98%  
64 28% 97%  
65 0.5% 69%  
66 2% 69%  
67 7% 67%  
68 2% 61%  
69 2% 59% Median
70 9% 57%  
71 0.2% 48%  
72 1.4% 48%  
73 13% 46%  
74 24% 34%  
75 2% 10%  
76 3% 8%  
77 2% 6%  
78 3% 4%  
79 0.2% 0.7%  
80 0% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.4% Majority
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.2% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.5% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.5%  
54 0.2% 99.3%  
55 0.6% 99.1%  
56 0% 98.5%  
57 0.3% 98%  
58 0% 98% Last Result
59 0.5% 98%  
60 0.6% 98%  
61 28% 97%  
62 0.4% 69%  
63 0.8% 69%  
64 8% 68%  
65 2% 61%  
66 2% 58% Median
67 8% 57%  
68 0.7% 48%  
69 1.4% 48%  
70 13% 46%  
71 24% 34%  
72 1.1% 9%  
73 4% 8%  
74 1.1% 5%  
75 3% 3%  
76 0.2% 0.7%  
77 0.1% 0.5%  
78 0.1% 0.4%  
79 0% 0.3%  
80 0.2% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1% Majority
82 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.5% 100%  
50 0% 99.5%  
51 0.2% 99.5%  
52 0.3% 99.3%  
53 0.6% 99.1%  
54 0.2% 98%  
55 0.5% 98%  
56 0.1% 98% Last Result
57 0.3% 98%  
58 0.5% 97%  
59 28% 97%  
60 0.8% 69%  
61 8% 68%  
62 1.3% 61%  
63 1.1% 59%  
64 3% 58% Median
65 1.0% 55%  
66 7% 54%  
67 12% 47%  
68 2% 36%  
69 24% 33%  
70 0.9% 9%  
71 1.0% 8%  
72 4% 7%  
73 3% 3%  
74 0.2% 0.7%  
75 0% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.4%  
77 0% 0.3%  
78 0.2% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.6% 100%  
49 0% 99.4%  
50 0.7% 99.4%  
51 0.3% 98.7% Last Result
52 0.8% 98%  
53 0.2% 98%  
54 0.5% 97%  
55 0.2% 97%  
56 28% 97%  
57 8% 69%  
58 2% 61%  
59 0.3% 59%  
60 26% 59% Median
61 2% 33%  
62 6% 31%  
63 3% 25%  
64 11% 22%  
65 0.9% 11%  
66 3% 10%  
67 5% 7%  
68 1.1% 3%  
69 0.4% 1.5%  
70 1.0% 1.1%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.6% 100%  
47 0.5% 99.4%  
48 0.7% 99.0%  
49 0.5% 98% Last Result
50 0.1% 98%  
51 0.4% 98%  
52 0.4% 97%  
53 0.5% 97%  
54 34% 96%  
55 3% 63%  
56 0.4% 59%  
57 0.2% 59%  
58 24% 59% Median
59 5% 35%  
60 0.3% 29%  
61 19% 29%  
62 0.3% 11%  
63 0.3% 10%  
64 3% 10%  
65 4% 7%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.3% 1.4%  
68 1.0% 1.1%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100%  
46 0% 99.8%  
47 0.1% 99.8%  
48 0% 99.7%  
49 0.2% 99.7%  
50 0.5% 99.5%  
51 2% 98.9%  
52 0.3% 97%  
53 0.3% 97%  
54 1.5% 97%  
55 29% 95%  
56 6% 66% Last Result, Median
57 1.3% 60%  
58 4% 59%  
59 0.8% 55%  
60 21% 55%  
61 27% 34%  
62 2% 7%  
63 1.0% 5%  
64 0.5% 4%  
65 2% 3%  
66 0.3% 1.3%  
67 0.7% 1.0%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.2% 100%  
43 0% 99.8%  
44 0.1% 99.8%  
45 0% 99.7%  
46 0.5% 99.7%  
47 0.1% 99.2%  
48 2% 99.1%  
49 0.4% 97%  
50 0.2% 97%  
51 3% 97%  
52 28% 94%  
53 5% 65% Last Result, Median
54 0.9% 60%  
55 3% 59%  
56 1.2% 56%  
57 21% 55%  
58 27% 34%  
59 2% 7%  
60 1.5% 5%  
61 0.2% 4%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.7% 2%  
64 0.7% 1.1%  
65 0.1% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.3% 100%  
42 0% 99.7%  
43 0.1% 99.7%  
44 0.1% 99.6%  
45 0.5% 99.5%  
46 2% 99.1%  
47 1.3% 97%  
48 0.7% 96%  
49 0.7% 95%  
50 30% 94%  
51 0.3% 65% Last Result, Median
52 6% 65%  
53 2% 59%  
54 20% 57%  
55 4% 37%  
56 26% 33%  
57 1.2% 7%  
58 1.3% 5%  
59 1.1% 4%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.9% 1.4%  
62 0.1% 0.5%  
63 0.2% 0.4%  
64 0% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.1% 99.7%  
41 0.3% 99.7%  
42 0.2% 99.4%  
43 0.4% 99.3%  
44 2% 98.9%  
45 2% 97%  
46 1.1% 95% Last Result
47 52% 94% Median
48 8% 42%  
49 4% 34%  
50 9% 30%  
51 11% 21%  
52 3% 10%  
53 1.5% 7%  
54 2% 5%  
55 2% 4%  
56 1.0% 2%  
57 0.8% 1.0%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations