Opinion Poll by Behaviour and Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 7 November 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 34.3% 32.3–36.3% 31.7–36.9% 31.3–37.4% 30.3–38.4%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 31.3% 29.3–33.2% 28.8–33.8% 28.3–34.3% 27.4–35.3%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 14.2% 12.8–15.7% 12.4–16.2% 12.0–16.6% 11.4–17.3%
Independent 15.9% 6.9% 5.9–8.0% 5.6–8.4% 5.4–8.7% 5.0–9.3%
Labour Party 6.6% 3.1% 2.4–3.9% 2.3–4.2% 2.1–4.4% 1.9–4.8%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 3.1% 2.4–3.9% 2.3–4.2% 2.1–4.4% 1.9–4.8%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.2% 1.1–3.6%
Social Democrats 3.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.9% 0.4–2.2%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.4–1.7% 0.3–2.0%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.1% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.0–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 69 63–70 63–71 62–71 59–73
Fianna Fáil 44 56 55–57 54–59 54–59 53–60
Sinn Féin 23 24 21–29 20–30 19–31 19–32
Independent 19 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 1–4
Labour Party 7 0 0 0–1 0–2 0–3
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 4 3–5 3–5 2–5 1–6
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Social Democrats 3 1 0–2 0–4 0–4 0–4
Independents 4 Change 4 2 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.8%  
59 0.5% 99.8%  
60 0.8% 99.2%  
61 0.9% 98%  
62 2% 98%  
63 6% 95%  
64 7% 89%  
65 5% 82%  
66 4% 76%  
67 12% 72%  
68 8% 60%  
69 20% 52% Median
70 25% 32%  
71 6% 7%  
72 0.8% 2%  
73 0.5% 0.8%  
74 0.3% 0.3%  
75 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100% Last Result
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0% 99.8%  
51 0% 99.8%  
52 0% 99.8%  
53 0.3% 99.7%  
54 6% 99.4%  
55 17% 94%  
56 40% 76% Median
57 28% 37%  
58 2% 8%  
59 5% 6%  
60 0.9% 1.0%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100%  
19 3% 99.9%  
20 7% 97%  
21 5% 91%  
22 5% 86%  
23 21% 81% Last Result
24 14% 60% Median
25 4% 45%  
26 8% 41%  
27 18% 34%  
28 1.0% 16%  
29 6% 15%  
30 6% 9%  
31 2% 4%  
32 0.8% 1.2%  
33 0.2% 0.4%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 0.1% 98%  
3 13% 98%  
4 85% 85% Median
5 0.3% 0.5%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Median
1 3% 8%  
2 4% 5%  
3 0.8% 0.8%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 2% 99.7%  
2 0.9% 98%  
3 22% 97%  
4 62% 74% Median
5 11% 12%  
6 0.9% 1.1% Last Result
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 44% 100%  
1 56% 56% Median
2 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 29% 100%  
1 44% 71% Median
2 20% 27%  
3 1.3% 7% Last Result
4 6% 6%  
5 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 15% 100%  
1 30% 85%  
2 28% 55% Median
3 7% 28%  
4 21% 21% Last Result
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 124 100% 120–126 118–127 118–129 117–129
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 81 59% 77–85 76–87 76–89 75–91
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 70 0% 65–72 63–73 63–74 61–75
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 69 0% 64–71 63–72 62–73 60–74
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 69 0% 64–71 63–71 62–72 60–73
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 69 0% 63–71 63–71 62–72 59–74
Fine Gael 49 69 0% 63–70 63–71 62–71 59–73
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 58 0% 55–60 55–61 55–62 54–63
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 57 0% 55–58 54–59 54–60 53–61
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 57 0% 55–59 54–60 54–60 53–61
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 56 0% 55–58 54–59 54–60 53–60

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0.1% 100%  
115 0.1% 99.9%  
116 0.3% 99.8%  
117 0.9% 99.5%  
118 5% 98.6%  
119 3% 93%  
120 5% 91%  
121 5% 86%  
122 5% 81%  
123 3% 76%  
124 29% 72%  
125 14% 43% Median
126 21% 30%  
127 5% 9%  
128 0.9% 4%  
129 3% 3%  
130 0.1% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 2% 100%  
76 7% 98%  
77 7% 91%  
78 1.1% 84%  
79 21% 83%  
80 2% 62% Median
81 15% 59% Majority
82 21% 44%  
83 7% 24%  
84 4% 16%  
85 2% 12%  
86 0.9% 10%  
87 5% 9%  
88 0.6% 4%  
89 2% 3%  
90 0.8% 1.4%  
91 0.4% 0.6%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 1.1% 99.8% Last Result
62 0.4% 98.7%  
63 5% 98%  
64 2% 93%  
65 8% 91%  
66 0.5% 83%  
67 2% 83%  
68 2% 80%  
69 20% 78%  
70 16% 57%  
71 9% 41% Median
72 25% 32%  
73 4% 7%  
74 2% 3%  
75 0.7% 0.8%  
76 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
59 0.2% 99.8%  
60 0.8% 99.6%  
61 1.0% 98.7%  
62 0.2% 98%  
63 7% 97%  
64 7% 90%  
65 0.8% 83%  
66 7% 82%  
67 3% 75%  
68 17% 72%  
69 15% 56%  
70 11% 41% Median
71 23% 30%  
72 3% 7%  
73 3% 3%  
74 0.8% 0.8%  
75 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.2% 99.8%  
60 1.0% 99.6%  
61 1.0% 98.5%  
62 2% 98%  
63 5% 95%  
64 8% 90%  
65 0.6% 82%  
66 6% 82%  
67 3% 75%  
68 17% 72%  
69 15% 55%  
70 12% 40% Median
71 24% 28%  
72 3% 4%  
73 0.6% 0.9%  
74 0.3% 0.4%  
75 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100% Last Result
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.8%  
59 0.5% 99.8%  
60 0.7% 99.3%  
61 1.0% 98.6%  
62 0.2% 98%  
63 8% 97%  
64 6% 89%  
65 6% 83%  
66 5% 77%  
67 12% 73%  
68 8% 61%  
69 19% 53% Median
70 23% 33%  
71 7% 11%  
72 3% 4%  
73 0.4% 1.1%  
74 0.6% 0.7%  
75 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.8%  
59 0.5% 99.8%  
60 0.8% 99.2%  
61 0.9% 98%  
62 2% 98%  
63 6% 95%  
64 7% 89%  
65 5% 82%  
66 4% 76%  
67 12% 72%  
68 8% 60%  
69 20% 52% Median
70 25% 32%  
71 6% 7%  
72 0.8% 2%  
73 0.5% 0.8%  
74 0.3% 0.3%  
75 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0% 99.8%  
53 0.1% 99.8%  
54 0.5% 99.7%  
55 17% 99.2%  
56 7% 83% Last Result
57 10% 75%  
58 26% 65% Median
59 12% 40%  
60 22% 28%  
61 1.4% 6%  
62 4% 5%  
63 0.5% 0.7%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0% 99.8%  
52 0% 99.8%  
53 0.3% 99.8%  
54 6% 99.4%  
55 17% 94%  
56 11% 77%  
57 35% 65% Median
58 23% 31%  
59 4% 8%  
60 3% 3%  
61 0.4% 0.5%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0% 99.8%  
52 0% 99.8%  
53 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
54 6% 99.5%  
55 16% 94%  
56 10% 78%  
57 34% 68% Median
58 22% 34%  
59 6% 11%  
60 5% 6%  
61 0.6% 0.8%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0% 99.8%  
51 0% 99.8% Last Result
52 0% 99.8%  
53 0.3% 99.7%  
54 6% 99.4%  
55 16% 94%  
56 36% 77% Median
57 29% 42%  
58 4% 12%  
59 5% 8%  
60 3% 3%  
61 0.2% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations