Opinion Poll by Red C for The Sunday Business Post, 23 November 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 27.2% 25.2–28.9% 24.8–29.4% 24.3–29.8% 23.5–30.7%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 26.2% 24.3–27.8% 23.8–28.3% 23.4–28.8% 22.6–29.7%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 16.1% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.2–19.2%
Independent 15.9% 8.5% 7.4–9.7% 7.1–10.0% 6.9–10.4% 6.4–11.0%
Labour Party 6.6% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.7%
Social Democrats 3.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.7%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.3% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 55 50–58 49–60 47–62 45–64
Fianna Fáil 44 51 47–55 46–56 45–57 43–58
Sinn Féin 23 33 29–35 29–35 28–35 25–38
Independent 19 3 3–5 3–5 3–6 3–10
Labour Party 7 6 3–7 2–9 1–11 1–17
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 1–5
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 3 3–5 3–6 2–6 0–8
Social Democrats 3 4 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
Independents 4 Change 4 3 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.2% 99.8%  
45 0.4% 99.6%  
46 2% 99.2%  
47 0.6% 98%  
48 2% 97%  
49 5% 95% Last Result
50 3% 90%  
51 7% 87%  
52 3% 81%  
53 15% 78%  
54 10% 63%  
55 14% 53% Median
56 5% 39%  
57 18% 35%  
58 7% 17%  
59 3% 9%  
60 3% 6%  
61 1.0% 4%  
62 1.4% 3%  
63 0.3% 1.4%  
64 0.8% 1.0%  
65 0.1% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.7%  
43 1.1% 99.5%  
44 0.7% 98% Last Result
45 0.8% 98%  
46 2% 97%  
47 5% 95%  
48 4% 90%  
49 12% 86%  
50 19% 74%  
51 9% 55% Median
52 7% 46%  
53 20% 38%  
54 4% 18%  
55 6% 14%  
56 3% 8%  
57 4% 5%  
58 0.5% 0.8%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100% Last Result
24 0.3% 99.9%  
25 0.5% 99.6%  
26 0.4% 99.1%  
27 0.5% 98.8%  
28 1.3% 98%  
29 11% 97%  
30 3% 86%  
31 6% 82%  
32 17% 76%  
33 16% 59% Median
34 25% 43%  
35 16% 18%  
36 0.7% 2%  
37 1.1% 2%  
38 0.5% 0.6%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 72% 100% Median
4 16% 28%  
5 8% 12%  
6 2% 4%  
7 0.5% 2%  
8 1.2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.8%  
10 0.3% 0.6%  
11 0.1% 0.3%  
12 0% 0.2%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 3% 99.8%  
2 2% 96%  
3 11% 94%  
4 8% 83%  
5 24% 75%  
6 28% 51% Median
7 15% 23% Last Result
8 3% 8%  
9 2% 5%  
10 0.9% 4%  
11 0.4% 3%  
12 0.6% 2%  
13 0.3% 2%  
14 0.2% 1.4%  
15 0.2% 1.2%  
16 0.2% 1.0%  
17 0.5% 0.8%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 1.4% 99.6%  
2 45% 98% Last Result
3 47% 54% Median
4 5% 6%  
5 1.5% 2%  
6 0% 0.2%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.9% 100%  
1 0.3% 99.1%  
2 3% 98.9%  
3 63% 96% Median
4 6% 33%  
5 20% 27%  
6 5% 7% Last Result
7 1.3% 2%  
8 0.5% 1.0%  
9 0.5% 0.5%  
10 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 9% 100% Last Result
4 80% 91% Median
5 10% 11%  
6 0.5% 0.7%  
7 0.1% 0.2%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 32% 100%  
1 5% 68%  
2 8% 63%  
3 14% 55% Median
4 37% 41% Last Result
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.3%  
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 106 100% 102–110 100–111 99–112 95–114
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 83 87% 80–88 79–88 76–91 74–92
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 67 0% 63–71 61–72 59–74 57–76
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 63 0% 58–67 57–68 54–71 53–72
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 63 0% 59–68 58–69 57–70 54–72
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 60 0% 56–64 54–66 52–68 50–70
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 59 0% 55–64 53–65 53–66 50–69
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 58 0% 52–61 51–62 49–64 47–66
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 56 0% 53–62 51–62 51–63 48–67
Fine Gael 49 55 0% 50–58 49–60 47–62 45–64
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 54 0% 50–57 49–59 47–59 45–61

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
94 0.1% 99.8%  
95 0.4% 99.7%  
96 0.5% 99.3%  
97 0.4% 98.8%  
98 0.7% 98%  
99 0.8% 98%  
100 2% 97%  
101 3% 94%  
102 4% 91%  
103 8% 87%  
104 12% 80%  
105 12% 68%  
106 20% 56% Median
107 9% 36%  
108 8% 27%  
109 7% 19%  
110 3% 12%  
111 4% 9%  
112 3% 5%  
113 0.9% 2%  
114 0.4% 0.7%  
115 0.2% 0.3%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0.2% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.8%  
74 0.2% 99.7%  
75 0.7% 99.5%  
76 1.3% 98.8%  
77 0.8% 97%  
78 1.0% 97%  
79 3% 96%  
80 5% 92%  
81 13% 87% Majority
82 7% 74%  
83 17% 67%  
84 14% 50% Median
85 4% 36%  
86 6% 31%  
87 6% 26%  
88 15% 20%  
89 0.8% 4%  
90 0.7% 4%  
91 2% 3%  
92 0.7% 1.2%  
93 0.2% 0.5%  
94 0.2% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.8%  
56 0.1% 99.8%  
57 0.4% 99.7%  
58 2% 99.3%  
59 0.5% 98%  
60 1.1% 97%  
61 3% 96% Last Result
62 2% 93%  
63 6% 90%  
64 10% 84%  
65 3% 74%  
66 18% 71%  
67 13% 53%  
68 10% 40% Median
69 12% 30%  
70 8% 18%  
71 4% 10%  
72 2% 6%  
73 0.8% 4%  
74 0.6% 3%  
75 1.1% 2%  
76 0.8% 1.3%  
77 0.1% 0.5%  
78 0.3% 0.4%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.8%  
53 1.2% 99.6%  
54 0.9% 98%  
55 0.4% 97%  
56 2% 97%  
57 2% 96%  
58 4% 93% Last Result
59 4% 89%  
60 12% 85%  
61 2% 72%  
62 18% 70%  
63 12% 52%  
64 10% 40% Median
65 10% 30%  
66 10% 20%  
67 4% 11%  
68 2% 6%  
69 0.8% 4%  
70 0.7% 3%  
71 1.1% 3%  
72 0.9% 1.4%  
73 0.1% 0.5%  
74 0.3% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.5% 99.7%  
55 1.0% 99.3%  
56 0.5% 98% Last Result
57 2% 98%  
58 2% 95%  
59 5% 93%  
60 8% 89%  
61 14% 81%  
62 13% 67%  
63 9% 54%  
64 5% 45% Median
65 8% 40%  
66 16% 32%  
67 2% 16%  
68 6% 13%  
69 4% 7%  
70 2% 4%  
71 0.9% 2%  
72 0.5% 1.0%  
73 0.1% 0.5%  
74 0.2% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.8%  
51 2% 99.5%  
52 0.5% 98%  
53 0.9% 97%  
54 2% 96%  
55 3% 95%  
56 5% 92% Last Result
57 9% 87%  
58 7% 78%  
59 16% 71%  
60 13% 55%  
61 7% 42% Median
62 9% 35%  
63 11% 26%  
64 6% 14%  
65 2% 8%  
66 2% 6%  
67 0.5% 3%  
68 0.9% 3%  
69 0.8% 2%  
70 0.8% 1.2%  
71 0.1% 0.4%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.5% 99.8%  
51 1.0% 99.3%  
52 0.5% 98%  
53 3% 98% Last Result
54 1.2% 94%  
55 5% 93%  
56 8% 88%  
57 13% 80%  
58 13% 67%  
59 7% 54%  
60 7% 47% Median
61 9% 40%  
62 16% 31%  
63 1.3% 15%  
64 8% 14%  
65 2% 6%  
66 2% 4%  
67 0.6% 2%  
68 0.5% 1.1%  
69 0.4% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.3% 99.7%  
48 2% 99.4%  
49 0.5% 98%  
50 2% 97%  
51 5% 96% Last Result
52 3% 91%  
53 5% 88%  
54 3% 83%  
55 3% 80%  
56 17% 77%  
57 9% 60%  
58 15% 51% Median
59 13% 37%  
60 8% 24%  
61 8% 15%  
62 2% 7%  
63 2% 5%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.3% 2%  
66 0.8% 1.2%  
67 0.3% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.8%  
47 0.2% 99.8%  
48 0.4% 99.6%  
49 1.2% 99.2%  
50 0.4% 98%  
51 4% 98% Last Result
52 3% 94%  
53 8% 91%  
54 11% 82%  
55 15% 71%  
56 7% 57%  
57 6% 50% Median
58 6% 44%  
59 20% 38%  
60 4% 18%  
61 3% 14%  
62 6% 11%  
63 3% 5%  
64 0.8% 2%  
65 0.6% 2%  
66 0.3% 0.9%  
67 0.4% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.2% 99.8%  
45 0.4% 99.6%  
46 2% 99.2%  
47 0.6% 98%  
48 2% 97%  
49 5% 95% Last Result
50 3% 90%  
51 7% 87%  
52 3% 81%  
53 15% 78%  
54 10% 63%  
55 14% 53% Median
56 5% 39%  
57 18% 35%  
58 7% 17%  
59 3% 9%  
60 3% 6%  
61 1.0% 4%  
62 1.4% 3%  
63 0.3% 1.4%  
64 0.8% 1.0%  
65 0.1% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.2% 99.8%  
45 0.8% 99.6%  
46 0.6% 98.8% Last Result
47 0.7% 98%  
48 2% 97%  
49 4% 95%  
50 2% 92%  
51 8% 89%  
52 12% 81%  
53 18% 69%  
54 11% 52% Median
55 9% 41%  
56 14% 32%  
57 9% 18%  
58 3% 9%  
59 4% 6%  
60 1.4% 2%  
61 0.5% 0.6%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations