Opinion Poll by Ipsos MRBI for Irish Times, 7 December 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 36.0% 34.2–37.8% 33.8–38.3% 33.3–38.8% 32.5–39.6%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 25.0% 23.4–26.7% 23.0–27.1% 22.6–27.5% 21.9–28.3%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 19.0% 17.6–20.5% 17.2–21.0% 16.9–21.3% 16.2–22.1%
Independent 15.9% 8.4% 7.5–9.5% 7.2–9.8% 7.0–10.1% 6.5–10.7%
Labour Party 6.6% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.7%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 1.9–4.5%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.1%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0%
Social Democrats 3.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 68 65–71 65–72 64–72 63–73
Fianna Fáil 44 47 42–51 40–51 39–52 38–52
Sinn Féin 23 37 32–38 31–38 31–39 31–40
Independent 19 5 4–7 4–8 3–9 3–10
Labour Party 7 0 0–3 0–5 0–6 0–8
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 2 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Independents 4 Change 4 2 2 1–3 1–3 1–3
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Social Democrats 3 1 0–1 0–1 0–3 0–3

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0.2% 100%  
63 0.4% 99.8%  
64 3% 99.4%  
65 6% 96%  
66 24% 90%  
67 13% 66%  
68 8% 54% Median
69 16% 46%  
70 8% 29%  
71 13% 21%  
72 6% 8%  
73 2% 2%  
74 0.2% 0.2%  
75 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 0.8% 99.7%  
39 2% 98.9%  
40 3% 97%  
41 4% 95%  
42 5% 91%  
43 5% 86%  
44 11% 81% Last Result
45 7% 70%  
46 11% 63%  
47 26% 52% Median
48 4% 26%  
49 8% 22%  
50 2% 14%  
51 9% 12%  
52 3% 3%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 100%  
31 6% 99.8%  
32 6% 94%  
33 12% 88%  
34 8% 76%  
35 7% 68%  
36 10% 62%  
37 37% 51% Median
38 10% 14%  
39 3% 4%  
40 1.4% 1.4%  
41 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 5% 100%  
4 31% 95%  
5 34% 64% Median
6 17% 29%  
7 5% 12%  
8 3% 7%  
9 1.5% 4%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 68% 100% Median
1 12% 32%  
2 5% 20%  
3 5% 15%  
4 2% 10%  
5 3% 7%  
6 3% 4%  
7 0.9% 1.4% Last Result
8 0.3% 0.5%  
9 0.1% 0.2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 27% 100%  
1 10% 73%  
2 51% 63% Last Result, Median
3 12% 13%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 10% 100%  
2 85% 90% Median
3 5% 5%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Median
1 7% 7%  
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 45% 100%  
1 52% 55% Median
2 0.8% 4%  
3 3% 3% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 114 100% 110–119 109–119 108–120 106–121
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 82 69% 78–84 76–85 76–86 74–87
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 71 0% 68–74 67–75 67–76 65–77
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 70 0% 67–74 67–75 66–76 65–77
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 69 0% 66–72 66–73 66–74 65–75
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 69 0% 66–73 66–74 65–74 64–75
Fine Gael 49 68 0% 65–71 65–72 64–72 63–73
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 50 0% 45–54 43–55 42–56 41–58
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 49 0% 44–53 43–54 42–55 40–57
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 48 0% 43–52 42–53 41–54 39–54
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 47 0% 43–51 41–52 40–53 39–55

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 100%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.3% 99.8%  
106 0.6% 99.6%  
107 0.7% 99.0%  
108 2% 98%  
109 3% 97%  
110 4% 94%  
111 4% 90%  
112 6% 86%  
113 25% 79%  
114 14% 55%  
115 10% 41% Median
116 6% 31%  
117 9% 24%  
118 5% 15%  
119 5% 10%  
120 3% 5%  
121 2% 2%  
122 0.1% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0.2% 100%  
74 0.7% 99.8%  
75 0.9% 99.1%  
76 4% 98%  
77 4% 94%  
78 4% 90%  
79 4% 86%  
80 13% 82%  
81 7% 69% Majority
82 15% 62%  
83 14% 47%  
84 26% 33% Median
85 3% 7%  
86 4% 5%  
87 0.6% 0.7%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0.6% 100%  
66 0.3% 99.4%  
67 5% 99.1%  
68 7% 94%  
69 20% 87%  
70 10% 67%  
71 18% 57% Median
72 8% 40%  
73 8% 32%  
74 15% 23%  
75 3% 8%  
76 4% 5%  
77 0.8% 1.2%  
78 0.3% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0% Majority

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.7% 99.9%  
66 2% 99.2%  
67 8% 97%  
68 18% 90%  
69 11% 71%  
70 11% 61% Median
71 15% 50%  
72 9% 34%  
73 13% 26%  
74 7% 13%  
75 3% 6%  
76 3% 3%  
77 0.5% 0.7%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100% Last Result
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0.2% 100%  
65 1.3% 99.8%  
66 18% 98%  
67 14% 81%  
68 11% 67% Median
69 16% 55%  
70 9% 40%  
71 15% 31%  
72 8% 16%  
73 4% 8%  
74 3% 4%  
75 0.7% 0.9%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.5% 99.7%  
65 3% 99.3%  
66 8% 97%  
67 8% 88%  
68 19% 80%  
69 13% 61%  
70 11% 48% Median
71 13% 37%  
72 7% 25%  
73 11% 17%  
74 5% 6%  
75 0.6% 0.8%  
76 0.2% 0.2%  
77 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0.2% 100%  
63 0.4% 99.8%  
64 3% 99.4%  
65 6% 96%  
66 24% 90%  
67 13% 66%  
68 8% 54% Median
69 16% 46%  
70 8% 29%  
71 13% 21%  
72 6% 8%  
73 2% 2%  
74 0.2% 0.2%  
75 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 1.0% 99.6%  
42 2% 98.7%  
43 3% 97%  
44 2% 94%  
45 4% 92%  
46 14% 87%  
47 5% 73%  
48 7% 68%  
49 10% 61%  
50 22% 51% Median
51 7% 29%  
52 6% 22%  
53 5% 17%  
54 6% 11%  
55 2% 5%  
56 1.0% 3% Last Result
57 1.1% 2%  
58 0.9% 1.0%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.8% 99.7%  
41 0.8% 98.9%  
42 2% 98%  
43 3% 96%  
44 3% 93%  
45 4% 90%  
46 14% 85%  
47 9% 71%  
48 6% 62%  
49 22% 55% Median
50 7% 33%  
51 8% 26%  
52 4% 18%  
53 6% 13% Last Result
54 3% 7%  
55 2% 4%  
56 1.2% 2%  
57 0.9% 1.0%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.5% 99.8%  
40 1.4% 99.3%  
41 2% 98%  
42 3% 96%  
43 6% 93%  
44 4% 88%  
45 6% 84%  
46 15% 78% Last Result
47 11% 63%  
48 7% 53%  
49 23% 46% Median
50 4% 22%  
51 7% 19%  
52 3% 12%  
53 5% 8%  
54 3% 3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.9%  
39 0.8% 99.6%  
40 2% 98.7%  
41 2% 97%  
42 4% 95%  
43 3% 91%  
44 10% 88%  
45 7% 77%  
46 10% 71%  
47 24% 60% Median
48 4% 37%  
49 9% 32%  
50 6% 24%  
51 10% 18% Last Result
52 3% 8%  
53 3% 5%  
54 0.5% 2%  
55 1.0% 1.2%  
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations