Opinion Poll by Ireland Thinks for Irish Daily Mail, 22 December 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 33.0% 31.3–34.9% 30.8–35.4% 30.4–35.8% 29.5–36.7%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 26.0% 24.3–27.7% 23.9–28.2% 23.5–28.6% 22.7–29.4%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 16.0% 14.7–17.5% 14.3–17.9% 14.0–18.2% 13.4–19.0%
Independent 15.9% 10.1% 9.1–11.4% 8.8–11.7% 8.5–12.0% 8.0–12.7%
Labour Party 6.6% 6.0% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.3% 4.8–7.6% 4.4–8.1%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 3.0% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.1% 1.9–4.5%
Social Democrats 3.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.4%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.4%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.3% 1.0–1.9% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.2% 0.7–2.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 63 60–67 59–68 59–68 57–69
Fianna Fáil 44 45 43–49 42–50 42–51 40–53
Sinn Féin 23 32 27–33 24–34 23–34 21–35
Independent 19 6 5–7 3–8 3–9 3–12
Labour Party 7 6 1–8 1–9 1–9 1–12
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 3 3–4 3–4 1–4 0–6
Social Democrats 3 3 3 3–4 1–4 1–4
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–2
Independents 4 Change 4 3 1–4 0–4 0–5 0–5

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.8%  
57 0.6% 99.6%  
58 0.5% 99.0%  
59 6% 98%  
60 8% 92%  
61 16% 84%  
62 7% 68%  
63 11% 61% Median
64 5% 50%  
65 14% 45%  
66 13% 31%  
67 10% 18%  
68 6% 7%  
69 1.0% 1.4%  
70 0.3% 0.4%  
71 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.8% 99.6%  
41 1.2% 98.7%  
42 6% 98%  
43 15% 91%  
44 17% 76% Last Result
45 12% 59% Median
46 22% 47%  
47 9% 25%  
48 4% 16%  
49 3% 12%  
50 5% 9%  
51 2% 5%  
52 0.9% 2%  
53 1.2% 2%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.1% 99.9%  
21 0.7% 99.8%  
22 0.4% 99.1%  
23 2% 98.6% Last Result
24 2% 96%  
25 2% 94%  
26 3% 93%  
27 4% 90%  
28 7% 87%  
29 4% 80%  
30 9% 75%  
31 15% 66%  
32 21% 51% Median
33 24% 30%  
34 4% 7%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 6% 100%  
4 4% 94%  
5 29% 91%  
6 18% 61% Median
7 34% 43%  
8 5% 9%  
9 2% 4%  
10 0.6% 2%  
11 0.6% 1.2%  
12 0.4% 0.6%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 10% 99.7%  
2 13% 90%  
3 8% 77%  
4 10% 69%  
5 10% 60%  
6 24% 50% Median
7 15% 26% Last Result
8 4% 11%  
9 6% 7%  
10 0.3% 1.3%  
11 0.4% 1.0%  
12 0.4% 0.6%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100%  
1 2% 98.9%  
2 2% 97%  
3 74% 95% Median
4 19% 21%  
5 1.4% 2%  
6 0.9% 1.0% Last Result
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 2% 99.7%  
2 1.1% 97%  
3 88% 96% Last Result, Median
4 8% 8%  
5 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Median
1 8% 9%  
2 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 5% 91%  
2 17% 86%  
3 28% 69% Median
4 36% 41% Last Result
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 108 100% 106–114 105–115 105–116 103–119
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 77 6% 72–79 71–81 70–83 67–83
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 71 0.3% 68–76 67–77 66–78 64–79
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 68 0% 65–73 64–74 63–75 61–76
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 68 0% 65–72 64–74 63–75 61–76
Fine Gael 49 63 0% 60–67 59–68 59–68 57–69
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 64 0% 60–67 59–68 59–68 57–69
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 54 0% 48–58 48–59 47–61 46–63
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 51 0% 45–55 45–56 44–57 43–60
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 51 0% 45–55 45–56 44–57 43–60
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 45 0% 43–49 42–51 42–52 40–53

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0.1% 100%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.3% 99.8%  
103 0.5% 99.5%  
104 1.2% 99.0%  
105 3% 98%  
106 11% 95%  
107 17% 83%  
108 22% 67% Median
109 10% 44%  
110 13% 35%  
111 6% 22%  
112 4% 16%  
113 1.3% 12%  
114 5% 11%  
115 2% 6%  
116 2% 4%  
117 0.5% 2%  
118 0.3% 1.1%  
119 0.6% 0.8%  
120 0.2% 0.2%  
121 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.7% Last Result
68 0.6% 99.5%  
69 0.6% 98.9%  
70 1.4% 98%  
71 3% 97%  
72 6% 94%  
73 5% 88%  
74 12% 82%  
75 9% 70%  
76 10% 62%  
77 23% 51% Median
78 14% 29%  
79 7% 15%  
80 2% 8%  
81 2% 6% Majority
82 1.2% 5%  
83 3% 3%  
84 0.2% 0.4%  
85 0.2% 0.3%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100% Last Result
62 0% 99.8%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 0.3% 99.6%  
65 1.2% 99.3%  
66 2% 98%  
67 4% 97%  
68 3% 93%  
69 7% 89%  
70 28% 83%  
71 9% 55%  
72 9% 46% Median
73 12% 37%  
74 7% 25%  
75 7% 17%  
76 5% 10%  
77 3% 6%  
78 1.5% 3%  
79 1.2% 2%  
80 0.1% 0.5%  
81 0.2% 0.3% Majority
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100% Last Result
59 0% 99.8%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 0.2% 99.7%  
62 1.4% 99.4%  
63 1.4% 98%  
64 4% 97%  
65 3% 93%  
66 8% 90%  
67 29% 82%  
68 8% 53%  
69 8% 45% Median
70 14% 37%  
71 7% 24%  
72 6% 17%  
73 5% 11%  
74 2% 6%  
75 2% 3%  
76 1.2% 2%  
77 0.2% 0.5%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0% Majority

Fine Gael – Labour Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100% Last Result
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0% 99.8%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.2% 99.7%  
62 2% 99.4%  
63 2% 98%  
64 3% 96%  
65 4% 93%  
66 7% 89%  
67 30% 82%  
68 8% 52%  
69 8% 44% Median
70 13% 36%  
71 8% 23%  
72 6% 16%  
73 4% 10%  
74 2% 5%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.9% 1.3%  
77 0.1% 0.4%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0% Majority

Fine Gael

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.8%  
57 0.6% 99.6%  
58 0.5% 99.0%  
59 6% 98%  
60 8% 92%  
61 16% 84%  
62 7% 68%  
63 11% 61% Median
64 5% 50%  
65 14% 45%  
66 13% 31%  
67 10% 18%  
68 6% 7%  
69 1.0% 1.4%  
70 0.3% 0.4%  
71 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.8%  
57 0.6% 99.6%  
58 0.5% 99.0%  
59 7% 98.5%  
60 8% 92%  
61 16% 84%  
62 7% 69%  
63 10% 62% Median
64 6% 52%  
65 14% 46%  
66 13% 32%  
67 11% 19%  
68 7% 8%  
69 1.3% 2%  
70 0.3% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 1.0% 99.8%  
47 2% 98.7%  
48 13% 97%  
49 5% 84%  
50 4% 79%  
51 7% 76%  
52 5% 69%  
53 11% 64%  
54 5% 53% Median
55 25% 48%  
56 4% 23% Last Result
57 3% 20%  
58 8% 16%  
59 6% 9%  
60 0.3% 3%  
61 0.8% 3%  
62 1.1% 2%  
63 0.3% 0.6%  
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 1.0% 99.8%  
44 2% 98.7%  
45 13% 97%  
46 6% 84%  
47 3% 78%  
48 9% 76%  
49 4% 67%  
50 10% 63%  
51 4% 52% Median
52 25% 49%  
53 4% 24% Last Result
54 4% 20%  
55 7% 16%  
56 6% 9%  
57 0.5% 3%  
58 0.9% 2%  
59 0.7% 1.3%  
60 0.3% 0.6%  
61 0.2% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 1.1% 99.7%  
44 2% 98.6%  
45 13% 97%  
46 6% 84%  
47 3% 78%  
48 9% 75%  
49 5% 67%  
50 11% 62%  
51 4% 51% Last Result, Median
52 24% 47%  
53 3% 23%  
54 4% 20%  
55 9% 16%  
56 5% 7%  
57 0.5% 3%  
58 1.0% 2%  
59 0.6% 1.3%  
60 0.3% 0.6%  
61 0.1% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.7% 99.6%  
41 1.2% 99.0%  
42 6% 98%  
43 15% 91%  
44 17% 76%  
45 11% 59% Median
46 23% 49% Last Result
47 8% 26%  
48 5% 17%  
49 3% 13%  
50 4% 10%  
51 2% 5%  
52 2% 4%  
53 1.2% 2%  
54 0.3% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations