Opinion Poll by Behaviour and Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 24 December 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 34.0% 32.0–36.0% 31.4–36.6% 31.0–37.1% 30.0–38.1%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 26.0% 24.2–27.9% 23.7–28.4% 23.2–28.9% 22.4–29.8%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 17.0% 15.5–18.7% 15.0–19.1% 14.7–19.6% 14.0–20.4%
Independent 15.9% 6.8% 5.8–8.0% 5.6–8.3% 5.3–8.6% 4.9–9.2%
Labour Party 6.6% 5.0% 4.2–6.1% 4.0–6.4% 3.8–6.7% 3.4–7.2%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.1% 1.1–3.5%
Social Democrats 3.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.1% 1.1–3.5%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.1% 1.1–3.5%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.4–1.7% 0.3–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 66 61–69 61–70 60–70 58–71
Fianna Fáil 44 47 44–53 43–53 42–54 41–55
Sinn Féin 23 34 30–36 29–37 27–37 25–39
Independent 19 3 3–4 3–4 2–4 1–6
Labour Party 7 3 1–7 0–8 0–8 0–10
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 1 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–4
Social Democrats 3 3 3–4 3–4 1–4 0–4
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 0 0 0–1 0–2 0–2
Independents 4 Change 4 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.5% 99.8%  
59 1.1% 99.3%  
60 3% 98%  
61 8% 95%  
62 3% 87%  
63 5% 83%  
64 5% 78%  
65 10% 73%  
66 13% 63% Median
67 28% 50%  
68 7% 22%  
69 9% 15%  
70 5% 6%  
71 1.1% 1.4%  
72 0.1% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.9% 99.8%  
42 1.3% 98.8%  
43 6% 97%  
44 14% 92% Last Result
45 11% 78%  
46 13% 67%  
47 7% 54% Median
48 7% 46%  
49 7% 39%  
50 6% 32%  
51 4% 27%  
52 7% 23%  
53 12% 16%  
54 2% 4%  
55 2% 2%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
24 0.1% 99.8%  
25 0.5% 99.6%  
26 0.7% 99.1%  
27 2% 98%  
28 2% 97%  
29 3% 95%  
30 5% 92%  
31 5% 87%  
32 9% 82%  
33 12% 74%  
34 26% 61% Median
35 13% 35%  
36 15% 23%  
37 6% 8%  
38 1.3% 2%  
39 0.5% 0.6%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.5% 100%  
2 2% 99.4%  
3 84% 97% Median
4 11% 13%  
5 0.9% 2%  
6 0.7% 1.0%  
7 0.1% 0.3%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 14% 91%  
2 15% 76%  
3 16% 62% Median
4 7% 46%  
5 16% 38%  
6 9% 23%  
7 8% 13% Last Result
8 4% 5%  
9 0.6% 1.1%  
10 0.4% 0.5%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 32% 100%  
1 20% 68% Median
2 13% 48%  
3 31% 36%  
4 5% 5%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100%  
1 2% 99.2%  
2 0.7% 97%  
3 59% 96% Last Result, Median
4 37% 38%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Median
1 2% 6%  
2 4% 4% Last Result
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 53% 100% Median
1 10% 47%  
2 19% 37%  
3 5% 18%  
4 12% 13% Last Result
5 0.6% 0.6%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 113 100% 110–118 109–119 108–120 107–123
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 80 49% 77–88 76–89 75–89 73–90
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 73 0.6% 67–77 66–78 66–79 65–81
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 70 0% 64–73 63–75 63–75 61–78
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 70 0% 64–73 63–74 63–75 61–77
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 67 0% 61–69 61–70 60–71 58–72
Fine Gael 49 66 0% 61–69 61–70 60–70 58–71
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 54 0% 51–59 50–61 49–62 47–64
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 51 0% 47–56 46–58 45–59 44–60
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 51 0% 47–56 46–57 45–59 44–60
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 47 0% 44–53 43–53 43–54 41–55

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0.1% 100%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.9% 99.7%  
108 3% 98.8%  
109 3% 96%  
110 11% 93%  
111 12% 82%  
112 10% 71%  
113 12% 60% Median
114 16% 48%  
115 8% 32%  
116 9% 24%  
117 5% 15%  
118 3% 10%  
119 4% 7%  
120 1.5% 3%  
121 0.4% 2%  
122 0.3% 1.5%  
123 1.1% 1.2%  
124 0.1% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.5% 99.7%  
74 1.4% 99.2%  
75 3% 98%  
76 3% 95%  
77 4% 92%  
78 12% 88%  
79 10% 76%  
80 16% 65%  
81 10% 49% Median, Majority
82 9% 39%  
83 4% 30%  
84 4% 26%  
85 4% 22%  
86 2% 18%  
87 5% 16%  
88 5% 11%  
89 5% 6%  
90 0.6% 0.9%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.3% 99.9%  
65 0.8% 99.6%  
66 4% 98.8%  
67 5% 95%  
68 5% 89%  
69 5% 84%  
70 3% 80%  
71 8% 76%  
72 11% 68% Median
73 12% 57%  
74 11% 45%  
75 14% 34%  
76 9% 20%  
77 5% 11%  
78 3% 6%  
79 1.4% 3%  
80 0.9% 1.5%  
81 0.5% 0.6% Majority
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0.2% 100%  
61 0.3% 99.7%  
62 0.9% 99.4%  
63 5% 98%  
64 6% 94%  
65 6% 87%  
66 2% 81%  
67 5% 79%  
68 11% 74%  
69 12% 64% Median
70 10% 51%  
71 9% 41%  
72 14% 32%  
73 10% 19%  
74 3% 8%  
75 3% 6%  
76 1.1% 2%  
77 0.8% 1.3%  
78 0.4% 0.6%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0% Majority

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100% Last Result
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.4% 99.7%  
62 0.9% 99.3%  
63 5% 98%  
64 7% 94%  
65 6% 87%  
66 3% 81%  
67 5% 78%  
68 11% 73%  
69 12% 62% Median
70 11% 50%  
71 10% 40%  
72 13% 30%  
73 9% 17%  
74 3% 8%  
75 3% 5%  
76 1.1% 2%  
77 0.8% 1.1%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.5% 99.8%  
59 1.1% 99.3%  
60 3% 98%  
61 8% 95%  
62 3% 87%  
63 5% 84%  
64 5% 79%  
65 10% 73%  
66 12% 63% Median
67 28% 52%  
68 7% 24%  
69 10% 16%  
70 4% 7%  
71 1.3% 3%  
72 1.1% 1.4%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.5% 99.8%  
59 1.1% 99.3%  
60 3% 98%  
61 8% 95%  
62 3% 87%  
63 5% 83%  
64 5% 78%  
65 10% 73%  
66 13% 63% Median
67 28% 50%  
68 7% 22%  
69 9% 15%  
70 5% 6%  
71 1.1% 1.4%  
72 0.1% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.4% 99.8%  
48 1.2% 99.5%  
49 2% 98%  
50 4% 96%  
51 7% 93%  
52 15% 86%  
53 12% 71% Median
54 13% 59%  
55 9% 46%  
56 7% 37% Last Result
57 7% 30%  
58 8% 23%  
59 6% 15%  
60 3% 9%  
61 3% 6%  
62 3% 4%  
63 0.5% 1.0%  
64 0.4% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.6% 99.8%  
45 2% 99.2%  
46 4% 97%  
47 4% 94%  
48 8% 90%  
49 18% 82%  
50 10% 64% Median
51 11% 54%  
52 7% 43%  
53 8% 36% Last Result
54 6% 28%  
55 8% 22%  
56 6% 14%  
57 4% 9%  
58 1.5% 5%  
59 3% 4%  
60 0.6% 1.1%  
61 0.4% 0.5%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.1% 99.8%  
44 0.7% 99.7%  
45 2% 99.0%  
46 5% 97%  
47 3% 92%  
48 7% 88%  
49 18% 81%  
50 10% 63% Median
51 11% 54% Last Result
52 7% 43%  
53 8% 35%  
54 7% 27%  
55 7% 21%  
56 5% 14%  
57 3% 8%  
58 2% 5%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.6% 1.0%  
61 0.3% 0.4%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.7% 99.8%  
42 1.0% 99.1%  
43 5% 98%  
44 13% 93%  
45 11% 80%  
46 14% 69% Last Result
47 8% 55% Median
48 7% 47%  
49 7% 40%  
50 6% 33%  
51 4% 27%  
52 7% 23%  
53 12% 17%  
54 2% 4%  
55 2% 2%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations