Opinion Poll by Behaviour and Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 4–16 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 32.0% 30.0–34.0% 29.5–34.6% 29.0–35.1% 28.1–36.0%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 26.0% 24.2–27.9% 23.7–28.4% 23.2–28.9% 22.4–29.9%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 18.0% 16.5–19.8% 16.1–20.2% 15.7–20.7% 15.0–21.5%
Independent 15.9% 7.6% 6.6–8.9% 6.3–9.2% 6.1–9.5% 5.6–10.1%
Labour Party 6.6% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.8–7.4% 4.6–7.7% 4.2–8.3%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.3–2.9% 1.2–3.1% 1.1–3.5%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.3–2.9% 1.2–3.1% 1.1–3.5%
Social Democrats 3.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.9% 0.4–2.2%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.9% 0.4–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 63 59–66 59–67 58–68 55–69
Fianna Fáil 44 48 44–52 43–52 42–54 41–56
Sinn Féin 23 36 33–38 32–38 31–39 27–41
Independent 19 3 3–4 3–5 3–5 2–6
Labour Party 7 7 4–9 3–10 2–12 1–15
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 1 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 0 0 0–1 0–2 0–2
Social Democrats 3 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Independents 4 Change 4 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.4% 99.8%  
56 0.5% 99.5%  
57 1.3% 99.0%  
58 2% 98%  
59 10% 96%  
60 9% 86%  
61 14% 77%  
62 4% 63%  
63 11% 59% Median
64 10% 48%  
65 19% 38%  
66 13% 19%  
67 3% 6%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.9% 0.9%  
70 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 0.7% 99.6%  
42 2% 98.9%  
43 3% 97%  
44 6% 93% Last Result
45 3% 87%  
46 9% 84%  
47 23% 75%  
48 6% 52% Median
49 9% 46%  
50 7% 36%  
51 12% 30%  
52 13% 17%  
53 2% 5%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.6% 1.2%  
56 0.5% 0.6%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0.3% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.7%  
27 0.2% 99.6%  
28 0.3% 99.4%  
29 0.5% 99.1%  
30 0.4% 98.5%  
31 1.1% 98%  
32 5% 97%  
33 7% 92%  
34 13% 85%  
35 13% 72%  
36 32% 59% Median
37 16% 27%  
38 8% 11%  
39 1.2% 3%  
40 0.7% 1.4%  
41 0.5% 0.6%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.6% 100%  
3 85% 99.4% Median
4 8% 15%  
5 5% 7%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0.2% 0.3%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0.6% 99.7%  
2 3% 99.1%  
3 6% 96%  
4 18% 91%  
5 6% 73%  
6 8% 67%  
7 30% 60% Last Result, Median
8 18% 30%  
9 2% 12%  
10 6% 10%  
11 0.7% 4%  
12 1.3% 3%  
13 0.9% 2%  
14 0.4% 1.0%  
15 0.3% 0.6%  
16 0.2% 0.3%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 32% 100%  
1 35% 68% Median
2 12% 32%  
3 19% 20%  
4 1.1% 1.1%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Median
1 2% 5%  
2 3% 3% Last Result
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Median
1 2% 16%  
2 0% 14%  
3 14% 14% Last Result
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 60% 100% Median
1 7% 40%  
2 9% 33%  
3 12% 24%  
4 11% 12% Last Result
5 0.8% 0.8%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 111 100% 107–115 106–115 106–116 103–119
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 83 82% 79–88 78–89 78–90 75–91
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 70 0.2% 67–74 65–75 64–76 63–78
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 69 0% 66–74 64–74 64–75 62–77
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 69 0% 66–74 64–74 64–75 62–77
Fine Gael 49 63 0% 59–66 59–67 58–68 55–69
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 63 0% 59–66 59–67 58–68 55–69
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 55 0% 51–60 50–60 49–62 46–64
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 54 0% 51–59 50–60 49–61 46–63
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 54 0% 51–59 49–60 48–61 46–63
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 48 0% 44–52 43–53 42–54 41–56

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0.1% 100%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.2% 99.8%  
103 0.3% 99.6%  
104 0.7% 99.3%  
105 0.8% 98.6%  
106 3% 98%  
107 6% 95%  
108 5% 89%  
109 5% 84%  
110 17% 79%  
111 15% 62% Median
112 23% 47%  
113 4% 24%  
114 3% 20%  
115 13% 16%  
116 1.3% 3%  
117 0.9% 2%  
118 0.3% 1.1%  
119 0.6% 0.8%  
120 0% 0.2%  
121 0.1% 0.2%  
122 0.1% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.4% 99.8%  
76 0.5% 99.4%  
77 1.3% 98.9%  
78 5% 98%  
79 4% 93%  
80 7% 89%  
81 6% 82% Majority
82 7% 76%  
83 22% 68%  
84 4% 46% Median
85 14% 42%  
86 6% 28%  
87 9% 22%  
88 6% 14%  
89 5% 8%  
90 2% 3%  
91 0.7% 1.1%  
92 0.2% 0.4%  
93 0.2% 0.3%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
62 0.2% 99.7%  
63 0.8% 99.5%  
64 3% 98.7%  
65 2% 96%  
66 3% 94%  
67 16% 91%  
68 14% 75%  
69 8% 60%  
70 11% 52% Median
71 5% 41%  
72 16% 35%  
73 3% 19%  
74 10% 16%  
75 2% 7%  
76 2% 4%  
77 2% 2%  
78 0.3% 0.8%  
79 0.3% 0.5%  
80 0% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.2% Majority
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.8%  
62 0.4% 99.6%  
63 1.3% 99.2%  
64 3% 98%  
65 3% 95%  
66 4% 91%  
67 18% 88%  
68 14% 70%  
69 9% 56%  
70 9% 47% Median
71 6% 37%  
72 16% 32%  
73 3% 16%  
74 9% 13%  
75 1.4% 4%  
76 1.1% 2%  
77 0.7% 1.1%  
78 0.2% 0.4%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0% Majority

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100% Last Result
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.8%  
62 0.4% 99.5%  
63 1.4% 99.1%  
64 3% 98%  
65 3% 94%  
66 4% 91%  
67 19% 87%  
68 13% 68%  
69 9% 55%  
70 10% 46% Median
71 6% 37%  
72 15% 30%  
73 3% 15%  
74 9% 12%  
75 1.3% 3%  
76 1.1% 2%  
77 0.6% 1.0%  
78 0.2% 0.4%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.4% 99.8%  
56 0.5% 99.5%  
57 1.3% 99.0%  
58 2% 98%  
59 10% 96%  
60 9% 86%  
61 14% 77%  
62 4% 63%  
63 11% 59% Median
64 10% 48%  
65 19% 38%  
66 13% 19%  
67 3% 6%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.9% 0.9%  
70 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 0.5% 99.5%  
57 1.3% 99.0%  
58 2% 98%  
59 10% 96%  
60 8% 86%  
61 13% 78%  
62 5% 65%  
63 11% 60% Median
64 10% 49%  
65 19% 39%  
66 13% 20%  
67 3% 7%  
68 3% 4%  
69 1.1% 1.3%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 0.5% 99.6%  
47 0.3% 99.2%  
48 0.5% 98.9%  
49 2% 98%  
50 2% 97%  
51 7% 95%  
52 9% 88%  
53 10% 79%  
54 16% 69%  
55 5% 53% Median
56 13% 48% Last Result
57 7% 36%  
58 13% 29%  
59 3% 15%  
60 8% 12%  
61 1.1% 4%  
62 1.4% 3%  
63 0.6% 1.2%  
64 0.4% 0.6%  
65 0.1% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 99.9%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 0.6% 99.6%  
47 0.4% 98.9%  
48 1.0% 98.5%  
49 2% 98%  
50 3% 95%  
51 7% 93%  
52 10% 85%  
53 10% 75% Last Result
54 16% 65%  
55 5% 49% Median
56 12% 44%  
57 9% 32%  
58 12% 23%  
59 3% 11%  
60 6% 9%  
61 1.1% 3%  
62 0.9% 2%  
63 0.3% 0.6%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.4% 99.9%  
46 0.6% 99.5%  
47 0.6% 98.9%  
48 1.2% 98%  
49 3% 97%  
50 3% 94%  
51 7% 92% Last Result
52 10% 85%  
53 10% 75%  
54 16% 65%  
55 6% 48% Median
56 11% 43%  
57 8% 31%  
58 12% 23%  
59 2% 11%  
60 6% 8%  
61 1.2% 3%  
62 0.8% 1.4%  
63 0.3% 0.5%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.5% 99.6%  
42 2% 99.1%  
43 3% 97%  
44 6% 94%  
45 3% 88%  
46 9% 84% Last Result
47 23% 75%  
48 5% 53% Median
49 9% 47%  
50 8% 38%  
51 12% 30%  
52 13% 18%  
53 2% 5%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.6% 1.3%  
56 0.5% 0.7%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations