Opinion Poll by Ipsos MRBI for The Irish Times, 22–23 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 34.0% 32.3–35.8% 31.8–36.3% 31.4–36.7% 30.6–37.6%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 25.0% 23.4–26.7% 23.0–27.1% 22.6–27.5% 21.9–28.3%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 19.0% 17.6–20.5% 17.2–21.0% 16.9–21.3% 16.2–22.1%
Independent 15.9% 9.3% 8.3–10.5% 8.0–10.8% 7.8–11.1% 7.4–11.7%
Labour Party 6.6% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.7%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 1.9–4.5%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.3%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.2% 0.9–1.7% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.0% 0.6–2.2%
Social Democrats 3.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 67 65–68 63–69 62–69 61–70
Fianna Fáil 44 45 41–49 40–50 39–51 38–53
Sinn Féin 23 36 33–39 33–39 32–39 31–40
Independent 19 6 4–8 4–8 4–8 3–10
Labour Party 7 0 0–2 0–2 0–4 0–5
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 1 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 1 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–4
Independents 4 Change 4 3 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Social Democrats 3 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.8%  
61 1.5% 99.5%  
62 2% 98%  
63 2% 96%  
64 4% 94%  
65 7% 91%  
66 16% 83%  
67 39% 68% Median
68 23% 29%  
69 3% 6%  
70 2% 2%  
71 0.3% 0.3%  
72 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.5% 99.8%  
39 2% 99.3%  
40 3% 97%  
41 12% 94%  
42 12% 82%  
43 8% 70%  
44 12% 63% Last Result
45 24% 51% Median
46 7% 26%  
47 5% 20%  
48 4% 14%  
49 3% 10%  
50 2% 7%  
51 3% 5%  
52 1.0% 2%  
53 0.8% 1.1%  
54 0.3% 0.3%  
55 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 100%  
31 1.3% 99.8%  
32 2% 98.6%  
33 9% 96%  
34 12% 87%  
35 23% 75%  
36 11% 51% Median
37 13% 41%  
38 9% 27%  
39 17% 19%  
40 2% 2%  
41 0.4% 0.4%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 2% 100%  
4 27% 98%  
5 17% 71%  
6 24% 54% Median
7 20% 30%  
8 8% 10%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.3% 0.7%  
11 0.3% 0.4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 55% 100% Median
1 21% 45%  
2 19% 23%  
3 1.3% 4%  
4 0.8% 3%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0.2% 0.4%  
7 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
8 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 29% 100%  
1 24% 71% Median
2 35% 47% Last Result
3 13% 13%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 29% 100%  
1 40% 71% Median
2 3% 31%  
3 21% 28%  
4 7% 7%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 24% 100%  
1 14% 76%  
2 8% 61%  
3 6% 54% Median
4 44% 47% Last Result
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 68% 100% Median
1 10% 32%  
2 5% 22%  
3 16% 17% Last Result
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 111 100% 108–114 107–116 107–117 105–119
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 80 44% 77–84 76–86 75–87 74–90
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 70 0% 67–72 66–73 64–74 63–76
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 69 0% 66–71 65–71 64–72 62–74
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 68 0% 65–70 64–71 63–71 61–72
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 68 0% 66–69 64–70 63–71 62–72
Fine Gael 49 67 0% 65–68 63–69 62–69 61–70
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 47 0% 43–52 43–54 42–54 40–57
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 46 0% 42–51 42–53 41–54 40–55
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 46 0% 42–50 41–51 41–53 39–54
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 45 0% 41–50 41–51 40–52 38–55

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 100%  
104 0.2% 99.9%  
105 0.6% 99.7%  
106 1.3% 99.1%  
107 5% 98%  
108 7% 93%  
109 14% 86%  
110 11% 71%  
111 15% 61%  
112 25% 45% Median
113 6% 20%  
114 6% 15%  
115 3% 9%  
116 3% 6%  
117 1.4% 3%  
118 0.9% 1.5%  
119 0.4% 0.6%  
120 0.1% 0.2%  
121 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.8% 99.8%  
75 2% 99.1%  
76 5% 97%  
77 9% 92%  
78 11% 83%  
79 17% 71%  
80 10% 54%  
81 9% 44% Median, Majority
82 10% 35%  
83 8% 25%  
84 9% 17%  
85 3% 9%  
86 2% 5%  
87 2% 3%  
88 0.4% 1.3%  
89 0.3% 0.9%  
90 0.2% 0.6%  
91 0.4% 0.4%  
92 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.8% 99.6%  
64 2% 98.9%  
65 2% 97%  
66 4% 96%  
67 11% 92%  
68 14% 81% Median
69 12% 67%  
70 24% 55%  
71 15% 30%  
72 7% 16%  
73 5% 9%  
74 2% 4%  
75 1.1% 2%  
76 0.4% 0.6%  
77 0.2% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.4% 99.7%  
63 0.9% 99.4%  
64 3% 98%  
65 3% 96%  
66 4% 93%  
67 15% 89%  
68 16% 74% Median
69 15% 58%  
70 25% 43%  
71 13% 18%  
72 3% 5%  
73 1.2% 2%  
74 0.5% 0.7%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.7% 99.7%  
62 1.3% 99.0%  
63 2% 98%  
64 2% 96%  
65 5% 94%  
66 6% 89%  
67 18% 83%  
68 21% 66% Median
69 24% 45%  
70 15% 20%  
71 3% 5%  
72 2% 2%  
73 0.4% 0.4%  
74 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100% Last Result
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.8%  
62 1.0% 99.6%  
63 2% 98.6%  
64 3% 96%  
65 3% 93%  
66 6% 90%  
67 29% 84% Median
68 36% 55%  
69 13% 19%  
70 3% 6%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.5% 0.7%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.8%  
61 1.5% 99.5%  
62 2% 98%  
63 2% 96%  
64 4% 94%  
65 7% 91%  
66 16% 83%  
67 39% 68% Median
68 23% 29%  
69 3% 6%  
70 2% 2%  
71 0.3% 0.3%  
72 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0.7% 99.7%  
41 1.3% 99.0%  
42 2% 98%  
43 10% 95%  
44 9% 86%  
45 11% 77%  
46 11% 66% Median
47 9% 55%  
48 12% 46%  
49 9% 34%  
50 10% 25%  
51 4% 14%  
52 3% 10%  
53 3% 8%  
54 3% 5%  
55 1.1% 2%  
56 0.7% 1.2% Last Result
57 0.4% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.8%  
40 1.2% 99.5%  
41 3% 98%  
42 6% 96%  
43 11% 90%  
44 9% 79%  
45 11% 71%  
46 14% 59% Median
47 8% 45%  
48 12% 37%  
49 5% 25%  
50 8% 20%  
51 4% 12%  
52 2% 8%  
53 3% 6% Last Result
54 1.2% 3%  
55 0.8% 1.3%  
56 0.4% 0.5%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.4% 99.8%  
40 2% 99.4%  
41 3% 98%  
42 10% 94%  
43 10% 84%  
44 11% 74%  
45 11% 63%  
46 16% 52% Last Result, Median
47 11% 37%  
48 9% 25%  
49 5% 16%  
50 3% 11%  
51 3% 8%  
52 2% 5%  
53 2% 3%  
54 1.0% 1.2%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.4% 99.8%  
39 2% 99.4%  
40 2% 98%  
41 7% 96%  
42 11% 88%  
43 8% 78%  
44 11% 70%  
45 17% 59% Median
46 13% 42%  
47 10% 30%  
48 6% 20%  
49 3% 14%  
50 4% 11%  
51 3% 7% Last Result
52 2% 4%  
53 1.0% 2%  
54 0.5% 1.2%  
55 0.6% 0.7%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations