Opinion Poll by Red C for The Sunday Business Post, 15–25 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 32.0% 30.1–33.8% 29.5–34.4% 29.1–34.9% 28.2–35.8%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 26.0% 24.2–27.8% 23.7–28.3% 23.3–28.7% 22.5–29.6%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 15.0% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–16.9% 12.9–17.3% 12.3–18.1%
Independent 15.9% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
Labour Party 6.6% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.3% 1.8–4.7%
Social Democrats 3.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.1% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 65 60–68 59–69 57–70 55–70
Fianna Fáil 44 47 44–52 42–53 42–54 41–56
Sinn Féin 23 29 24–33 23–33 22–34 20–36
Independent 19 3 3 3–4 3–5 2–6
Labour Party 7 6 3–8 2–10 1–11 1–13
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 2 2 2–3 1–4 1–5
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 3 3–5 2–5 2–5 1–7
Social Democrats 3 3 2–4 1–4 1–4 1–4
Independents 4 Change 4 1 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.6% 99.8%  
56 0.7% 99.2%  
57 2% 98%  
58 1.1% 96%  
59 2% 95%  
60 9% 93%  
61 10% 84%  
62 4% 74%  
63 11% 70%  
64 5% 59%  
65 13% 54% Median
66 9% 41%  
67 20% 33%  
68 6% 13%  
69 3% 7%  
70 3% 3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 0.4% 99.8%  
42 5% 99.4%  
43 4% 94%  
44 5% 91% Last Result
45 22% 86%  
46 10% 63%  
47 5% 53% Median
48 14% 48%  
49 10% 34%  
50 5% 23%  
51 5% 18%  
52 5% 13%  
53 3% 8%  
54 3% 4%  
55 1.1% 2%  
56 0.6% 0.8%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.2% 99.9%  
20 0.5% 99.7%  
21 0.9% 99.2%  
22 2% 98%  
23 5% 97% Last Result
24 2% 91%  
25 5% 89%  
26 4% 84%  
27 6% 80%  
28 3% 75%  
29 23% 71% Median
30 13% 49%  
31 4% 36%  
32 15% 31%  
33 14% 17%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.7% 1.3%  
36 0.6% 0.6%  
37 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.5% 100%  
3 89% 99.5% Median
4 7% 10%  
5 2% 3%  
6 0.5% 0.9%  
7 0.3% 0.4%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 3% 99.6%  
2 5% 97%  
3 4% 92%  
4 8% 88%  
5 12% 80%  
6 27% 67% Median
7 29% 40% Last Result
8 3% 11%  
9 2% 8%  
10 1.0% 6%  
11 4% 5%  
12 0.4% 0.9%  
13 0.2% 0.6%  
14 0.1% 0.3%  
15 0.1% 0.2%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 4% 99.6%  
2 86% 95% Last Result, Median
3 5% 9%  
4 2% 4%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 2% 99.6%  
2 4% 98%  
3 57% 94% Median
4 26% 37%  
5 9% 11%  
6 0.9% 2% Last Result
7 0.5% 0.8%  
8 0.2% 0.3%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 9% 100%  
2 1.3% 91%  
3 62% 90% Last Result, Median
4 27% 27%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 47% 100%  
1 7% 53% Median
2 11% 46%  
3 19% 35%  
4 15% 16% Last Result
5 1.0% 1.0%  
6 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 111 100% 107–117 106–118 105–118 104–120
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 76 18% 73–82 71–82 70–83 67–85
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 76 6% 71–79 69–81 68–82 66–84
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 72 0.6% 67–76 66–78 65–79 63–81
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 70 0.1% 65–74 64–76 63–77 61–78
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 67 0% 62–70 61–71 59–72 57–72
Fine Gael 49 65 0% 60–68 59–69 57–70 55–70
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 58 0% 55–63 54–65 52–67 51–70
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 55 0% 52–60 50–62 49–64 48–67
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 53 0% 49–58 48–60 47–62 46–65
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 49 0% 46–54 45–56 44–56 44–58

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.2% 99.7%  
104 0.4% 99.6%  
105 3% 99.1%  
106 3% 96%  
107 7% 93%  
108 7% 86%  
109 10% 80%  
110 14% 69%  
111 6% 55%  
112 12% 49% Median
113 5% 37%  
114 7% 32%  
115 11% 25%  
116 3% 15%  
117 3% 11%  
118 7% 8%  
119 0.8% 1.3%  
120 0.3% 0.5%  
121 0.1% 0.2%  
122 0.1% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.5% 99.9% Last Result
68 0.2% 99.4%  
69 1.0% 99.1%  
70 1.0% 98%  
71 4% 97%  
72 3% 93%  
73 6% 90%  
74 14% 85%  
75 17% 70%  
76 5% 53% Median
77 10% 48%  
78 10% 38%  
79 6% 29%  
80 5% 23%  
81 8% 18% Majority
82 6% 11%  
83 2% 4%  
84 1.1% 2%  
85 0.9% 1.2%  
86 0.1% 0.3%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.5% 99.7%  
67 0.7% 99.2%  
68 1.4% 98%  
69 4% 97%  
70 2% 93%  
71 9% 91%  
72 8% 82%  
73 5% 74%  
74 7% 69%  
75 11% 62%  
76 9% 51% Median
77 13% 42%  
78 3% 29%  
79 16% 26%  
80 4% 10%  
81 3% 6% Majority
82 2% 3%  
83 0.6% 1.3%  
84 0.4% 0.6%  
85 0.2% 0.2%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.8%  
63 0.6% 99.6%  
64 1.3% 99.1%  
65 2% 98%  
66 3% 96%  
67 8% 93%  
68 3% 85%  
69 8% 82%  
70 5% 74%  
71 8% 69%  
72 12% 61%  
73 8% 50% Median
74 7% 41%  
75 9% 34%  
76 17% 25%  
77 3% 8%  
78 3% 6%  
79 1.5% 3%  
80 0.7% 1.3%  
81 0.4% 0.6% Majority
82 0.2% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100% Last Result
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.7%  
61 0.6% 99.6%  
62 1.3% 98.9%  
63 2% 98%  
64 3% 96%  
65 8% 93%  
66 4% 85%  
67 8% 81%  
68 4% 72%  
69 9% 68%  
70 10% 59%  
71 8% 49% Median
72 7% 41%  
73 9% 33%  
74 16% 24%  
75 3% 8%  
76 3% 5%  
77 1.3% 3%  
78 0.7% 1.2%  
79 0.3% 0.5%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1% Majority
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.9%  
58 0.8% 99.4%  
59 2% 98.7%  
60 1.0% 96%  
61 2% 95%  
62 9% 94%  
63 9% 84%  
64 4% 75%  
65 10% 71%  
66 6% 61%  
67 13% 55% Median
68 9% 42%  
69 20% 33%  
70 6% 13%  
71 3% 7%  
72 4% 4%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.6% 99.8%  
56 0.7% 99.2%  
57 2% 98%  
58 1.1% 96%  
59 2% 95%  
60 9% 93%  
61 10% 84%  
62 4% 74%  
63 11% 70%  
64 5% 59%  
65 13% 54% Median
66 9% 41%  
67 20% 33%  
68 6% 13%  
69 3% 7%  
70 3% 3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.2% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.8%  
52 2% 99.5%  
53 2% 97%  
54 3% 95%  
55 5% 92%  
56 12% 88% Last Result
57 22% 76%  
58 15% 53% Median
59 7% 38%  
60 8% 31%  
61 5% 23%  
62 6% 18%  
63 2% 12%  
64 3% 10%  
65 2% 6%  
66 2% 5%  
67 1.1% 3%  
68 0.7% 2%  
69 0.1% 0.9%  
70 0.6% 0.8%  
71 0% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 1.3% 99.7%  
49 2% 98%  
50 1.5% 96%  
51 4% 95%  
52 4% 90%  
53 17% 87% Last Result
54 16% 69%  
55 12% 54% Median
56 10% 41%  
57 9% 32%  
58 5% 23%  
59 5% 17%  
60 2% 12%  
61 3% 10%  
62 2% 7%  
63 2% 5%  
64 1.2% 3%  
65 0.6% 1.5%  
66 0.1% 0.9%  
67 0.6% 0.8%  
68 0% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 2% 99.7%  
47 3% 98%  
48 3% 96%  
49 3% 93%  
50 4% 90%  
51 17% 86% Last Result
52 15% 69%  
53 13% 54% Median
54 10% 41%  
55 9% 31%  
56 6% 22%  
57 5% 16%  
58 3% 12%  
59 3% 9%  
60 1.4% 6%  
61 2% 5%  
62 1.4% 3%  
63 0.2% 1.1%  
64 0.2% 0.9%  
65 0.6% 0.7%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.2% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.8%  
44 4% 99.5%  
45 4% 96%  
46 5% 92% Last Result
47 22% 86%  
48 10% 64%  
49 5% 54% Median
50 14% 49%  
51 11% 34%  
52 5% 24%  
53 5% 19%  
54 6% 14%  
55 2% 8%  
56 3% 6%  
57 1.3% 2%  
58 0.6% 1.1%  
59 0.3% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations