Opinion Poll by Behaviour and Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 1–13 February 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 36.0% 34.0–38.0% 33.4–38.6% 32.9–39.1% 32.0–40.1%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 25.1% 23.3–26.9% 22.8–27.5% 22.4–28.0% 21.5–28.9%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 16.0% 14.5–17.6% 14.1–18.1% 13.8–18.5% 13.1–19.3%
Independent 15.9% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.0–9.4% 5.6–10.1%
Labour Party 6.6% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 3.9–6.3% 3.7–6.6% 3.4–7.1%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 3.0% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.8–4.8%
Social Democrats 3.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 67 66–70 66–70 65–71 62–72
Fianna Fáil 44 46 45–51 43–52 42–52 40–54
Sinn Féin 23 32 25–33 25–34 24–35 22–38
Independent 19 3 3–5 3–6 3–6 3–7
Labour Party 7 3 1–5 1–6 0–7 0–8
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 4 3–4 3–6 1–6 1–6
Social Democrats 3 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 0 0 0 0 0
Independents 4 Change 4 2 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0.4% 100%  
62 0.3% 99.5%  
63 0.3% 99.2%  
64 0.5% 98.9%  
65 2% 98%  
66 11% 96%  
67 56% 85% Median
68 11% 30%  
69 8% 19%  
70 6% 10%  
71 2% 4%  
72 2% 2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.7% 99.7%  
41 1.0% 99.0%  
42 2% 98%  
43 2% 96%  
44 2% 94% Last Result
45 7% 92%  
46 38% 85% Median
47 11% 48%  
48 5% 37%  
49 6% 32%  
50 13% 26%  
51 3% 13%  
52 9% 10%  
53 0.7% 1.2%  
54 0.3% 0.6%  
55 0.1% 0.3%  
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.2% 99.9%  
22 0.4% 99.7%  
23 0.8% 99.3% Last Result
24 1.4% 98%  
25 8% 97%  
26 2% 89%  
27 1.4% 87%  
28 3% 86%  
29 4% 83%  
30 8% 79%  
31 13% 70%  
32 26% 57% Median
33 24% 31%  
34 5% 8%  
35 0.7% 3%  
36 0.5% 2%  
37 1.1% 2%  
38 0.7% 0.7%  
39 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 65% 99.8% Median
4 22% 35%  
5 7% 13%  
6 5% 7%  
7 1.3% 2%  
8 0.4% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 19% 97%  
2 19% 78%  
3 11% 58% Median
4 36% 48%  
5 4% 11%  
6 3% 8%  
7 4% 5% Last Result
8 0.4% 0.8%  
9 0.2% 0.4%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 3% 99.8%  
2 1.2% 97%  
3 37% 96%  
4 49% 59% Median
5 2% 9%  
6 7% 7% Last Result
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 68% 100% Median
1 20% 32%  
2 1.0% 12%  
3 10% 11% Last Result
4 1.0% 1.0%  
5 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100%  
1 12% 87%  
2 33% 75% Median
3 7% 42%  
4 34% 35% Last Result
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 115 100% 112–119 111–120 110–121 108–123
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 78 20% 75–81 74–82 73–83 70–85
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 71 0.1% 68–76 68–76 68–77 66–79
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 71 0% 68–73 68–75 67–75 65–77
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 71 0% 68–73 68–75 67–75 65–77
Fine Gael 49 67 0% 66–70 66–70 65–71 62–72
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 67 0% 66–70 66–70 65–71 62–72
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 50 0% 47–56 47–56 46–57 43–59
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 50 0% 47–55 46–56 44–56 42–58
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 50 0% 47–55 46–56 44–56 42–58
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 46 0% 45–51 43–52 42–52 40–54

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0.1% 100%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.6% 99.8%  
109 0.6% 99.1%  
110 2% 98.5%  
111 2% 96%  
112 8% 94%  
113 33% 86% Median
114 0.9% 53%  
115 20% 52%  
116 6% 32%  
117 10% 26%  
118 3% 15%  
119 8% 13%  
120 0.9% 5%  
121 3% 4%  
122 0.3% 0.8%  
123 0.3% 0.5%  
124 0.1% 0.2%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.8%  
70 0.4% 99.7%  
71 1.4% 99.4%  
72 0.4% 98%  
73 2% 98%  
74 3% 96%  
75 6% 93%  
76 6% 87%  
77 13% 81%  
78 21% 68% Median
79 25% 47%  
80 2% 22%  
81 10% 20% Majority
82 5% 10%  
83 2% 4%  
84 0.9% 2%  
85 0.7% 1.0%  
86 0.3% 0.4%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.8%  
66 0.4% 99.7%  
67 1.5% 99.3%  
68 18% 98%  
69 3% 80%  
70 12% 78% Median
71 43% 65%  
72 3% 23%  
73 6% 20%  
74 3% 14%  
75 1.0% 11%  
76 6% 10%  
77 2% 4%  
78 1.5% 2%  
79 0.4% 0.7%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0% 0.1% Majority
82 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.7%  
65 0.2% 99.6%  
66 0.7% 99.5%  
67 2% 98.7%  
68 20% 97%  
69 5% 77%  
70 20% 72% Median
71 34% 53%  
72 3% 19%  
73 6% 16%  
74 4% 10%  
75 4% 6%  
76 1.2% 2%  
77 0.4% 0.7%  
78 0.2% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0% Majority

Fine Gael – Labour Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100% Last Result
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.7%  
65 0.2% 99.6%  
66 0.7% 99.5%  
67 2% 98.7%  
68 20% 97%  
69 5% 77%  
70 20% 72% Median
71 34% 53%  
72 3% 19%  
73 6% 16%  
74 4% 10%  
75 4% 6%  
76 1.2% 2%  
77 0.4% 0.7%  
78 0.2% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0% Majority

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0.4% 100%  
62 0.3% 99.5%  
63 0.3% 99.2%  
64 0.5% 98.9%  
65 2% 98%  
66 11% 96%  
67 56% 85% Median
68 11% 30%  
69 8% 19%  
70 6% 10%  
71 2% 4%  
72 2% 2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0.4% 100%  
62 0.3% 99.5%  
63 0.3% 99.2%  
64 0.5% 98.9%  
65 2% 98%  
66 11% 96%  
67 56% 85% Median
68 11% 30%  
69 8% 19%  
70 6% 10%  
71 2% 4%  
72 2% 2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.4% 99.9%  
44 0.3% 99.5%  
45 1.0% 99.2%  
46 1.2% 98%  
47 9% 97%  
48 4% 88%  
49 1.4% 84% Median
50 38% 83%  
51 16% 44%  
52 7% 28%  
53 2% 22%  
54 3% 19%  
55 6% 16%  
56 6% 10% Last Result
57 3% 4%  
58 0.6% 2%  
59 0.5% 0.9%  
60 0.3% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.8%  
42 0.4% 99.8%  
43 0.3% 99.4%  
44 2% 99.0%  
45 2% 97%  
46 2% 96%  
47 7% 94%  
48 5% 86%  
49 12% 81% Median
50 31% 69%  
51 15% 38%  
52 6% 23%  
53 0.7% 17% Last Result
54 6% 17%  
55 2% 10%  
56 7% 8%  
57 0.6% 2%  
58 0.5% 0.9%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.8%  
42 0.4% 99.8%  
43 0.3% 99.4%  
44 2% 99.0%  
45 2% 97%  
46 2% 96%  
47 7% 94%  
48 5% 86%  
49 12% 81% Median
50 31% 69%  
51 15% 38% Last Result
52 6% 23%  
53 0.7% 17%  
54 6% 17%  
55 2% 10%  
56 7% 8%  
57 0.6% 2%  
58 0.5% 0.9%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.7% 99.7%  
41 1.0% 99.0%  
42 2% 98%  
43 2% 96%  
44 2% 94%  
45 7% 92%  
46 38% 85% Last Result, Median
47 11% 48%  
48 5% 37%  
49 6% 32%  
50 13% 26%  
51 3% 13%  
52 9% 10%  
53 0.7% 1.2%  
54 0.3% 0.6%  
55 0.1% 0.3%  
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations