Opinion Poll by Millward Brown for The Sunday Independent, 6–14 February 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
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Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Fine Gael |
25.5% |
33.9% |
32.0–35.9% |
31.5–36.5% |
31.0–37.0% |
30.1–37.9% |
Fianna Fáil |
24.3% |
26.4% |
24.6–28.3% |
24.1–28.8% |
23.7–29.3% |
22.9–30.2% |
Sinn Féin |
13.8% |
18.9% |
17.3–20.6% |
16.9–21.0% |
16.5–21.5% |
15.8–22.3% |
Independent |
15.9% |
8.8% |
7.7–10.0% |
7.4–10.4% |
7.1–10.7% |
6.7–11.4% |
Labour Party |
6.6% |
3.8% |
3.1–4.7% |
2.9–5.0% |
2.8–5.2% |
2.5–5.7% |
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas |
2.7% |
1.9% |
1.4–2.5% |
1.3–2.7% |
1.2–2.9% |
1.0–3.3% |
Independents 4 Change |
1.5% |
1.1% |
0.8–1.7% |
0.7–1.9% |
0.6–2.0% |
0.5–2.3% |
Solidarity–People Before Profit |
3.9% |
0.9% |
0.6–1.5% |
0.5–1.6% |
0.5–1.8% |
0.4–2.1% |
Social Democrats |
3.0% |
0.9% |
0.6–1.5% |
0.5–1.6% |
0.5–1.8% |
0.4–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
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
Confidence Intervals
Fine Gael
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
49 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
50 |
0% |
100% |
|
51 |
0% |
100% |
|
52 |
0% |
100% |
|
53 |
0% |
100% |
|
54 |
0% |
100% |
|
55 |
0% |
100% |
|
56 |
0% |
100% |
|
57 |
0% |
100% |
|
58 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
59 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
60 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
61 |
4% |
99.4% |
|
62 |
2% |
95% |
|
63 |
5% |
93% |
|
64 |
3% |
89% |
|
65 |
10% |
85% |
|
66 |
26% |
76% |
Median |
67 |
41% |
50% |
|
68 |
6% |
9% |
|
69 |
2% |
3% |
|
70 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
71 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
39 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
40 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
41 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
42 |
0.5% |
99.2% |
|
43 |
0.4% |
98.6% |
|
44 |
1.0% |
98% |
Last Result |
45 |
6% |
97% |
|
46 |
15% |
92% |
|
47 |
6% |
77% |
|
48 |
22% |
70% |
Median |
49 |
24% |
48% |
|
50 |
10% |
24% |
|
51 |
2% |
14% |
|
52 |
7% |
12% |
|
53 |
3% |
6% |
|
54 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
55 |
0.9% |
1.1% |
|
56 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
57 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sinn Féin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
32 |
0.8% |
99.6% |
|
33 |
2% |
98.7% |
|
34 |
6% |
97% |
|
35 |
23% |
91% |
|
36 |
7% |
68% |
|
37 |
31% |
61% |
Median |
38 |
19% |
30% |
|
39 |
6% |
10% |
|
40 |
3% |
5% |
|
41 |
0.7% |
1.3% |
|
42 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
43 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
44 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
Independent
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
3% |
100% |
|
4 |
53% |
97% |
Median |
5 |
0.4% |
44% |
|
6 |
39% |
44% |
|
7 |
2% |
5% |
|
8 |
2% |
2% |
|
9 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
10 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
54% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
36% |
46% |
|
2 |
7% |
10% |
|
3 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
4 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
5 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
6 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
97% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
3% |
3% |
|
2 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Independents 4 Change
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
17% |
100% |
|
1 |
34% |
83% |
Median |
2 |
1.1% |
48% |
|
3 |
3% |
47% |
|
4 |
39% |
44% |
Last Result |
5 |
5% |
5% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Solidarity–People Before Profit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.1% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Social Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
83% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
11% |
17% |
|
2 |
1.3% |
6% |
|
3 |
5% |
5% |
Last Result |
4 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil |
93 |
114 |
100% |
111–117 |
110–117 |
110–119 |
109–121 |
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin |
67 |
85 |
98% |
83–88 |
83–89 |
82–90 |
79–91 |
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats |
61 |
67 |
0% |
64–68 |
63–69 |
63–70 |
62–72 |
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas |
58 |
67 |
0% |
64–68 |
63–69 |
62–70 |
61–71 |
Fine Gael – Labour Party |
56 |
67 |
0% |
64–68 |
63–69 |
62–70 |
61–71 |
Fine Gael |
49 |
66 |
0% |
63–67 |
61–68 |
61–69 |
60–70 |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas |
51 |
67 |
0% |
63–67 |
61–68 |
61–69 |
60–70 |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats |
56 |
49 |
0% |
47–54 |
45–55 |
45–55 |
42–57 |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas |
53 |
49 |
0% |
46–52 |
45–54 |
45–54 |
42–56 |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party |
51 |
49 |
0% |
46–52 |
45–54 |
45–54 |
42–56 |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas |
46 |
48 |
0% |
46–52 |
45–53 |
44–54 |
41–55 |
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
93 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
94 |
0% |
100% |
|
95 |
0% |
100% |
|
96 |
0% |
100% |
|
97 |
0% |
100% |
|
98 |
0% |
100% |
|
99 |
0% |
100% |
|
100 |
0% |
100% |
|
101 |
0% |
100% |
|
102 |
0% |
100% |
|
103 |
0% |
100% |
|
104 |
0% |
100% |
|
105 |
0% |
100% |
|
106 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
107 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
108 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
109 |
0.8% |
99.5% |
|
110 |
9% |
98.8% |
|
111 |
1.1% |
90% |
|
112 |
6% |
89% |
|
113 |
14% |
83% |
|
114 |
26% |
69% |
Median |
115 |
2% |
43% |
|
116 |
25% |
41% |
|
117 |
12% |
16% |
|
118 |
1.2% |
4% |
|
119 |
1.5% |
3% |
|
120 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
121 |
0.6% |
1.0% |
|
122 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
123 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
124 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
125 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
67 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
68 |
0% |
100% |
|
69 |
0% |
100% |
|
70 |
0% |
100% |
|
71 |
0% |
100% |
|
72 |
0% |
100% |
|
73 |
0% |
100% |
|
74 |
0% |
100% |
|
75 |
0% |
100% |
|
76 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
77 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
78 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
79 |
0.7% |
99.6% |
|
80 |
0.4% |
98.9% |
|
81 |
0.9% |
98% |
Majority |
82 |
2% |
98% |
|
83 |
9% |
96% |
|
84 |
36% |
87% |
|
85 |
27% |
51% |
Median |
86 |
5% |
24% |
|
87 |
5% |
19% |
|
88 |
6% |
14% |
|
89 |
4% |
9% |
|
90 |
4% |
5% |
|
91 |
1.0% |
1.4% |
|
92 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
93 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
94 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
95 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
59 |
0% |
100% |
|
60 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
61 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
62 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
63 |
4% |
98% |
|
64 |
3% |
93% |
|
65 |
5% |
90% |
|
66 |
8% |
85% |
Median |
67 |
44% |
77% |
|
68 |
23% |
33% |
|
69 |
4% |
9% |
|
70 |
3% |
5% |
|
71 |
2% |
2% |
|
72 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
73 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
74 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
75 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
58 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
59 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
60 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
61 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
62 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
63 |
7% |
97% |
|
64 |
2% |
90% |
|
65 |
9% |
88% |
|
66 |
5% |
79% |
Median |
67 |
47% |
73% |
|
68 |
19% |
26% |
|
69 |
4% |
7% |
|
70 |
2% |
3% |
|
71 |
1.2% |
1.4% |
|
72 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
73 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fine Gael – Labour Party

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
56 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
57 |
0% |
100% |
|
58 |
0% |
100% |
|
59 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
60 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
61 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
62 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
63 |
7% |
97% |
|
64 |
2% |
90% |
|
65 |
9% |
88% |
|
66 |
8% |
78% |
Median |
67 |
45% |
71% |
|
68 |
19% |
26% |
|
69 |
4% |
7% |
|
70 |
2% |
3% |
|
71 |
1.2% |
1.3% |
|
72 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
73 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fine Gael

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
49 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
50 |
0% |
100% |
|
51 |
0% |
100% |
|
52 |
0% |
100% |
|
53 |
0% |
100% |
|
54 |
0% |
100% |
|
55 |
0% |
100% |
|
56 |
0% |
100% |
|
57 |
0% |
100% |
|
58 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
59 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
60 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
61 |
4% |
99.4% |
|
62 |
2% |
95% |
|
63 |
5% |
93% |
|
64 |
3% |
89% |
|
65 |
10% |
85% |
|
66 |
26% |
76% |
Median |
67 |
41% |
50% |
|
68 |
6% |
9% |
|
69 |
2% |
3% |
|
70 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
71 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
51 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
52 |
0% |
100% |
|
53 |
0% |
100% |
|
54 |
0% |
100% |
|
55 |
0% |
100% |
|
56 |
0% |
100% |
|
57 |
0% |
100% |
|
58 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
59 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
60 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
61 |
4% |
99.4% |
|
62 |
2% |
95% |
|
63 |
5% |
93% |
|
64 |
3% |
89% |
|
65 |
10% |
85% |
|
66 |
23% |
76% |
Median |
67 |
44% |
52% |
|
68 |
6% |
9% |
|
69 |
1.3% |
3% |
|
70 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
71 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
72 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
40 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
41 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
42 |
0.6% |
99.7% |
|
43 |
0.4% |
99.1% |
|
44 |
0.8% |
98.7% |
|
45 |
6% |
98% |
|
46 |
0.7% |
92% |
|
47 |
19% |
92% |
|
48 |
2% |
73% |
Median |
49 |
38% |
72% |
|
50 |
6% |
33% |
|
51 |
11% |
27% |
|
52 |
1.1% |
16% |
|
53 |
5% |
15% |
|
54 |
5% |
10% |
|
55 |
3% |
5% |
|
56 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
57 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
58 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
59 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
60 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
40 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
41 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
42 |
0.6% |
99.6% |
|
43 |
0.5% |
99.0% |
|
44 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
45 |
6% |
98% |
|
46 |
3% |
92% |
|
47 |
17% |
89% |
|
48 |
3% |
72% |
Median |
49 |
38% |
69% |
|
50 |
5% |
31% |
|
51 |
11% |
26% |
|
52 |
5% |
15% |
|
53 |
4% |
9% |
Last Result |
54 |
4% |
5% |
|
55 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
56 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
57 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
58 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
40 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
41 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
42 |
0.6% |
99.6% |
|
43 |
0.6% |
99.0% |
|
44 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
45 |
6% |
98% |
|
46 |
3% |
92% |
|
47 |
17% |
89% |
|
48 |
3% |
72% |
Median |
49 |
38% |
69% |
|
50 |
8% |
31% |
|
51 |
9% |
23% |
Last Result |
52 |
5% |
15% |
|
53 |
4% |
9% |
|
54 |
3% |
5% |
|
55 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
56 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
57 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
58 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
39 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
40 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
41 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
42 |
0.5% |
99.2% |
|
43 |
0.4% |
98.6% |
|
44 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
45 |
6% |
97% |
|
46 |
15% |
92% |
Last Result |
47 |
7% |
77% |
|
48 |
22% |
70% |
Median |
49 |
24% |
48% |
|
50 |
8% |
24% |
|
51 |
4% |
16% |
|
52 |
7% |
12% |
|
53 |
3% |
6% |
|
54 |
2% |
3% |
|
55 |
0.9% |
1.1% |
|
56 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
57 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Millward Brown
- Commissioner(s): The Sunday Independent
- Fieldwork period: 6–14 February 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 970
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.66%