Opinion Poll by Red C for The Sunday Business Post, 15–22 February 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 32.2% 30.1–33.9% 29.6–34.5% 29.2–35.0% 28.3–35.9%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 29.2% 27.2–30.9% 26.7–31.4% 26.3–31.9% 25.4–32.8%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 14.1% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–15.9% 12.0–16.3% 11.4–17.0%
Independent 15.9% 8.6% 7.5–9.7% 7.2–10.1% 6.9–10.4% 6.4–11.0%
Labour Party 6.6% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Social Democrats 3.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.3% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 63 60–66 59–68 59–70 56–70
Fianna Fáil 44 52 49–57 49–59 49–59 48–59
Sinn Féin 23 26 21–32 18–32 18–32 17–33
Independent 19 3 3–6 3–9 3–9 3–9
Labour Party 7 9 5–10 3–13 3–13 2–13
Social Democrats 3 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 1–4
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–2
Independents 4 Change 4 2 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 0 0 0 0 0–3
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.8%  
56 0.4% 99.6%  
57 0.4% 99.3%  
58 0.6% 98.9%  
59 8% 98%  
60 15% 91%  
61 1.5% 76%  
62 0.2% 74%  
63 25% 74% Median
64 1.1% 49%  
65 30% 48%  
66 11% 18%  
67 2% 7%  
68 1.0% 6%  
69 1.2% 5%  
70 3% 4%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100% Last Result
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.8%  
47 0% 99.6%  
48 0.4% 99.6%  
49 15% 99.2%  
50 0.4% 84%  
51 7% 84%  
52 27% 77% Median
53 3% 50%  
54 20% 47%  
55 5% 27%  
56 10% 22%  
57 4% 12%  
58 0.5% 8%  
59 7% 7%  
60 0.4% 0.4%  
61 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.4% 100%  
17 1.4% 99.6%  
18 4% 98%  
19 1.0% 95%  
20 1.0% 94%  
21 4% 93%  
22 0.4% 89%  
23 8% 89% Last Result
24 6% 81%  
25 2% 75%  
26 37% 73% Median
27 6% 36%  
28 15% 30%  
29 2% 15%  
30 0.9% 13%  
31 0.3% 12%  
32 10% 11%  
33 0.9% 1.4%  
34 0.1% 0.4%  
35 0.3% 0.4%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 59% 100% Median
4 14% 41%  
5 17% 28%  
6 3% 11%  
7 1.1% 8%  
8 2% 7%  
9 5% 5%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0.1% 99.8%  
2 1.5% 99.8%  
3 8% 98%  
4 0.4% 91%  
5 8% 90%  
6 2% 82%  
7 7% 80% Last Result
8 18% 72%  
9 43% 55% Median
10 4% 12%  
11 1.3% 8%  
12 0.6% 7%  
13 6% 6%  
14 0.1% 0.3%  
15 0% 0.2%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 9% 98%  
3 83% 89% Last Result, Median
4 6% 6%  
5 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Median
1 7% 8%  
2 1.2% 1.3% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100%  
1 6% 86%  
2 38% 80% Median
3 24% 42%  
4 17% 18% Last Result
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.7% 100% Median
1 0.4% 1.3%  
2 0.3% 0.9%  
3 0.6% 0.6%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 117 100% 112–122 112–123 112–125 110–125
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 78 25% 75–86 74–86 73–86 70–89
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 75 2% 70–77 68–80 68–80 66–83
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 72 0% 67–74 65–76 65–77 63–80
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 72 0% 67–74 65–76 65–77 62–80
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 64 0% 61–68 57–72 57–72 56–72
Fine Gael 49 63 0% 60–66 59–68 59–70 56–70
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 64 0% 60–66 59–68 59–70 56–71
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 61 0% 58–65 54–69 54–69 53–69
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 61 0% 58–64 54–69 54–69 52–69
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 53 0% 49–58 49–59 49–59 48–60

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0.1% 100%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0.3% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.6%  
110 0.3% 99.5%  
111 0.1% 99.2%  
112 15% 99.1%  
113 1.5% 84%  
114 11% 83%  
115 7% 71% Median
116 0.5% 64%  
117 41% 64%  
118 0.7% 23%  
119 6% 22%  
120 3% 16%  
121 0.9% 14%  
122 8% 13%  
123 2% 5%  
124 0.1% 4%  
125 4% 4%  
126 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0.6% 99.9%  
71 1.1% 99.3%  
72 0.6% 98%  
73 0.3% 98%  
74 5% 97%  
75 7% 92%  
76 4% 86%  
77 15% 82%  
78 28% 67% Median
79 6% 39%  
80 8% 33%  
81 0.3% 25% Majority
82 3% 25%  
83 4% 22%  
84 0.1% 18%  
85 0.5% 18%  
86 15% 17%  
87 0.8% 2%  
88 0.3% 1.4%  
89 0.9% 1.1%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100% Last Result
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.8%  
65 0.2% 99.7%  
66 0.2% 99.5%  
67 0.2% 99.4%  
68 7% 99.1%  
69 2% 93%  
70 3% 91%  
71 10% 88%  
72 7% 78%  
73 8% 71%  
74 2% 63%  
75 21% 60% Median
76 0.5% 40%  
77 30% 39%  
78 0.4% 10%  
79 4% 9%  
80 4% 6%  
81 0.5% 2% Majority
82 0.3% 1.1%  
83 0.8% 0.8%  
84 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100% Last Result
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 0.1% 99.8%  
62 0.2% 99.7%  
63 0.3% 99.5%  
64 0.3% 99.2%  
65 6% 99.0%  
66 3% 93%  
67 0.4% 90%  
68 10% 90%  
69 9% 80%  
70 0.2% 70%  
71 10% 70%  
72 21% 60% Median
73 2% 40%  
74 28% 38%  
75 0.6% 10%  
76 4% 9%  
77 3% 5%  
78 0.5% 2%  
79 0.1% 1.1%  
80 1.0% 1.0%  
81 0% 0% Majority

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100% Last Result
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 0.1% 99.8%  
62 0.3% 99.7%  
63 0.4% 99.4%  
64 0.1% 99.0%  
65 7% 98.9%  
66 2% 92%  
67 0.3% 90%  
68 14% 90%  
69 6% 76%  
70 0.8% 70%  
71 9% 69%  
72 22% 60% Median
73 2% 38%  
74 27% 37%  
75 0.7% 10%  
76 4% 9%  
77 3% 5%  
78 0.4% 1.5%  
79 0.2% 1.0%  
80 0.9% 0.9%  
81 0% 0% Majority

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 0.1% 99.5% Last Result
57 5% 99.5%  
58 0.2% 94%  
59 0.2% 94%  
60 0.4% 94%  
61 16% 93%  
62 4% 78%  
63 0.6% 74%  
64 37% 74% Median
65 14% 36%  
66 3% 22%  
67 7% 20%  
68 3% 13%  
69 4% 10%  
70 0.3% 6%  
71 0% 6%  
72 5% 6%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.8%  
56 0.4% 99.6%  
57 0.4% 99.3%  
58 0.6% 98.9%  
59 8% 98%  
60 15% 91%  
61 1.5% 76%  
62 0.2% 74%  
63 25% 74% Median
64 1.1% 49%  
65 30% 48%  
66 11% 18%  
67 2% 7%  
68 1.0% 6%  
69 1.2% 5%  
70 3% 4%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 0.2% 99.7%  
57 0.5% 99.5%  
58 0.5% 98.9%  
59 8% 98%  
60 15% 91%  
61 1.2% 76%  
62 0.4% 74%  
63 23% 74% Median
64 4% 52%  
65 27% 48%  
66 12% 21%  
67 2% 8%  
68 2% 7%  
69 1.1% 5%  
70 3% 4%  
71 0.4% 0.5%  
72 0.2% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.3% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.7%  
53 0.1% 99.5% Last Result
54 5% 99.5%  
55 0.3% 94%  
56 0.2% 94%  
57 0.4% 94%  
58 15% 93%  
59 2% 78%  
60 0.6% 76%  
61 32% 75% Median
62 21% 44%  
63 3% 23%  
64 8% 19%  
65 2% 11%  
66 3% 9%  
67 0.7% 7%  
68 0% 6%  
69 6% 6%  
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
52 0.1% 99.6%  
53 0.1% 99.5%  
54 5% 99.4%  
55 0.3% 94%  
56 0.5% 94%  
57 1.4% 93%  
58 15% 92%  
59 1.3% 76%  
60 3% 75%  
61 29% 72% Median
62 22% 44%  
63 3% 22%  
64 9% 19%  
65 0.5% 10%  
66 3% 9%  
67 0.7% 7%  
68 0% 6%  
69 6% 6%  
70 0% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
47 0% 99.7%  
48 0.4% 99.6%  
49 15% 99.2%  
50 0.2% 84%  
51 6% 84%  
52 27% 78% Median
53 4% 51%  
54 19% 47%  
55 4% 28%  
56 11% 23%  
57 2% 12%  
58 3% 11%  
59 6% 7%  
60 2% 2%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations