Opinion Poll by Behaviour and Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 6–13 March 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael | 25.5% | 31.3% | 29.4–33.4% | 28.9–33.9% | 28.4–34.4% | 27.5–35.4% |
| Fianna Fáil | 24.3% | 26.4% | 24.6–28.4% | 24.1–28.9% | 23.7–29.4% | 22.8–30.4% |
| Sinn Féin | 13.8% | 18.7% | 17.1–20.4% | 16.6–20.9% | 16.2–21.4% | 15.5–22.2% |
| Independent | 15.9% | 8.3% | 7.3–9.6% | 7.0–10.0% | 6.7–10.3% | 6.2–11.0% |
| Labour Party | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.0–7.0% | 4.7–7.3% | 4.5–7.6% | 4.1–8.2% |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–3.0% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.5% |
| Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–3.0% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.5% |
| Social Democrats | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
| Independents 4 Change | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael | 49 | 61 | 58–65 | 57–66 | 56–66 | 53–68 |
| Fianna Fáil | 44 | 49 | 45–52 | 44–53 | 42–54 | 40–56 |
| Sinn Féin | 23 | 36 | 33–38 | 33–40 | 32–40 | 29–42 |
| Independent | 19 | 3 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–8 |
| Labour Party | 7 | 7 | 2–8 | 2–9 | 2–12 | 1–14 |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit | 6 | 1 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Social Democrats | 3 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| Independents 4 Change | 4 | 1 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
Fine Gael
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 55 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 56 | 2% | 98% | |
| 57 | 2% | 96% | |
| 58 | 8% | 94% | |
| 59 | 10% | 86% | |
| 60 | 20% | 76% | |
| 61 | 8% | 56% | Median |
| 62 | 13% | 47% | |
| 63 | 12% | 34% | |
| 64 | 10% | 22% | |
| 65 | 7% | 13% | |
| 66 | 3% | 6% | |
| 67 | 2% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 42 | 2% | 98% | |
| 43 | 1.5% | 97% | |
| 44 | 3% | 95% | Last Result |
| 45 | 4% | 92% | |
| 46 | 10% | 88% | |
| 47 | 10% | 79% | |
| 48 | 7% | 69% | |
| 49 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 50 | 14% | 50% | |
| 51 | 10% | 35% | |
| 52 | 18% | 25% | |
| 53 | 3% | 7% | |
| 54 | 2% | 4% | |
| 55 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 56 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 31 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 32 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 33 | 10% | 97% | |
| 34 | 10% | 87% | |
| 35 | 18% | 77% | |
| 36 | 27% | 59% | Median |
| 37 | 21% | 33% | |
| 38 | 4% | 11% | |
| 39 | 2% | 7% | |
| 40 | 3% | 6% | |
| 41 | 2% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Independent
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 61% | 99.8% | Median |
| 4 | 12% | 38% | |
| 5 | 15% | 26% | |
| 6 | 10% | 11% | |
| 7 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 1 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 2 | 10% | 98.5% | |
| 3 | 7% | 88% | |
| 4 | 9% | 81% | |
| 5 | 5% | 73% | |
| 6 | 14% | 68% | |
| 7 | 26% | 54% | Last Result, Median |
| 8 | 18% | 28% | |
| 9 | 6% | 10% | |
| 10 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 11 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 12 | 2% | 3% | |
| 13 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Solidarity–People Before Profit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 42% | 100% | |
| 1 | 24% | 58% | Median |
| 2 | 8% | 34% | |
| 3 | 25% | 26% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 3% | 5% | |
| 2 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Social Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 80% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 5% | 20% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 3 | 15% | 15% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Independents 4 Change
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 47% | 100% | |
| 1 | 11% | 53% | Median |
| 2 | 13% | 41% | |
| 3 | 12% | 28% | |
| 4 | 15% | 17% | Last Result |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil | 93 | 111 | 100% | 106–114 | 105–115 | 104–116 | 102–118 |
| Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin | 67 | 85 | 87% | 80–89 | 79–90 | 78–92 | 76–94 |
| Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats | 61 | 67 | 0% | 64–72 | 63–74 | 62–76 | 59–77 |
| Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 58 | 67 | 0% | 63–72 | 62–73 | 62–74 | 58–76 |
| Fine Gael – Labour Party | 56 | 67 | 0% | 63–71 | 62–73 | 62–74 | 58–76 |
| Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 51 | 61 | 0% | 58–65 | 57–66 | 56–67 | 53–69 |
| Fine Gael | 49 | 61 | 0% | 58–65 | 57–66 | 56–66 | 53–68 |
| Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats | 56 | 56 | 0% | 52–59 | 50–61 | 49–62 | 45–64 |
| Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 53 | 55 | 0% | 51–59 | 50–60 | 49–61 | 45–63 |
| Fianna Fáil – Labour Party | 51 | 55 | 0% | 51–59 | 50–60 | 48–61 | 45–63 |
| Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 46 | 50 | 0% | 45–52 | 44–53 | 42–55 | 41–56 |
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 102 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 103 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 104 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 105 | 3% | 97% | |
| 106 | 5% | 94% | |
| 107 | 5% | 90% | |
| 108 | 8% | 84% | |
| 109 | 12% | 76% | |
| 110 | 13% | 64% | Median |
| 111 | 14% | 51% | |
| 112 | 19% | 36% | |
| 113 | 5% | 17% | |
| 114 | 3% | 12% | |
| 115 | 6% | 9% | |
| 116 | 2% | 3% | |
| 117 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 118 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 77 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 78 | 2% | 98% | |
| 79 | 3% | 96% | |
| 80 | 7% | 93% | |
| 81 | 8% | 87% | Majority |
| 82 | 7% | 78% | |
| 83 | 8% | 71% | |
| 84 | 7% | 63% | |
| 85 | 6% | 56% | Median |
| 86 | 15% | 50% | |
| 87 | 10% | 35% | |
| 88 | 11% | 25% | |
| 89 | 6% | 14% | |
| 90 | 5% | 8% | |
| 91 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 92 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 93 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 94 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 95 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 61 | 0.7% | 99.1% | Last Result |
| 62 | 3% | 98% | |
| 63 | 3% | 95% | |
| 64 | 6% | 92% | |
| 65 | 6% | 86% | |
| 66 | 7% | 80% | |
| 67 | 24% | 73% | |
| 68 | 7% | 49% | Median |
| 69 | 10% | 42% | |
| 70 | 11% | 32% | |
| 71 | 9% | 21% | |
| 72 | 4% | 12% | |
| 73 | 2% | 8% | |
| 74 | 2% | 6% | |
| 75 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 76 | 2% | 3% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 59 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 61 | 1.0% | 98.6% | |
| 62 | 4% | 98% | |
| 63 | 5% | 94% | |
| 64 | 6% | 89% | |
| 65 | 7% | 83% | |
| 66 | 8% | 75% | |
| 67 | 24% | 67% | |
| 68 | 9% | 43% | Median |
| 69 | 7% | 35% | |
| 70 | 10% | 28% | |
| 71 | 8% | 18% | |
| 72 | 4% | 10% | |
| 73 | 3% | 6% | |
| 74 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 75 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 76 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 57 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 61 | 1.0% | 98.6% | |
| 62 | 4% | 98% | |
| 63 | 5% | 94% | |
| 64 | 6% | 89% | |
| 65 | 8% | 83% | |
| 66 | 9% | 75% | |
| 67 | 24% | 67% | |
| 68 | 9% | 42% | Median |
| 69 | 7% | 34% | |
| 70 | 10% | 27% | |
| 71 | 8% | 17% | |
| 72 | 4% | 9% | |
| 73 | 3% | 5% | |
| 74 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 76 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 55 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 56 | 2% | 98% | |
| 57 | 2% | 96% | |
| 58 | 8% | 94% | |
| 59 | 10% | 86% | |
| 60 | 19% | 76% | |
| 61 | 8% | 57% | Median |
| 62 | 14% | 48% | |
| 63 | 12% | 35% | |
| 64 | 10% | 23% | |
| 65 | 7% | 13% | |
| 66 | 3% | 6% | |
| 67 | 2% | 4% | |
| 68 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 69 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 55 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 56 | 2% | 98% | |
| 57 | 2% | 96% | |
| 58 | 8% | 94% | |
| 59 | 10% | 86% | |
| 60 | 20% | 76% | |
| 61 | 8% | 56% | Median |
| 62 | 13% | 47% | |
| 63 | 12% | 34% | |
| 64 | 10% | 22% | |
| 65 | 7% | 13% | |
| 66 | 3% | 6% | |
| 67 | 2% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 47 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 48 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 49 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 50 | 2% | 97% | |
| 51 | 4% | 95% | |
| 52 | 5% | 91% | |
| 53 | 11% | 86% | |
| 54 | 12% | 75% | |
| 55 | 12% | 64% | |
| 56 | 13% | 52% | Last Result, Median |
| 57 | 4% | 39% | |
| 58 | 12% | 35% | |
| 59 | 14% | 23% | |
| 60 | 3% | 9% | |
| 61 | 2% | 6% | |
| 62 | 2% | 4% | |
| 63 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 47 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 48 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 49 | 2% | 98% | |
| 50 | 4% | 96% | |
| 51 | 5% | 93% | |
| 52 | 5% | 87% | |
| 53 | 11% | 83% | Last Result |
| 54 | 13% | 72% | |
| 55 | 11% | 58% | |
| 56 | 14% | 47% | Median |
| 57 | 4% | 33% | |
| 58 | 10% | 29% | |
| 59 | 13% | 19% | |
| 60 | 4% | 7% | |
| 61 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 62 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 63 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 45 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 46 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 48 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 49 | 2% | 97% | |
| 50 | 4% | 96% | |
| 51 | 5% | 92% | Last Result |
| 52 | 5% | 87% | |
| 53 | 11% | 82% | |
| 54 | 14% | 71% | |
| 55 | 11% | 58% | |
| 56 | 14% | 46% | Median |
| 57 | 4% | 33% | |
| 58 | 10% | 29% | |
| 59 | 12% | 19% | |
| 60 | 3% | 6% | |
| 61 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 62 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 42 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 43 | 2% | 97% | |
| 44 | 3% | 96% | |
| 45 | 4% | 93% | |
| 46 | 10% | 89% | Last Result |
| 47 | 9% | 79% | |
| 48 | 8% | 69% | |
| 49 | 11% | 62% | Median |
| 50 | 14% | 50% | |
| 51 | 10% | 36% | |
| 52 | 18% | 26% | |
| 53 | 3% | 8% | |
| 54 | 2% | 4% | |
| 55 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 56 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Behaviour and Attitudes
- Commissioner(s): The Sunday Times
- Fieldwork period: 6–13 March 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 900
- Simulations done: 1,048,575
- Error estimate: 3.08%