Opinion Poll by Red C for The Sunday Business Post, 15–22 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 33.5% 31.1–34.9% 30.6–35.5% 30.1–36.0% 29.3–36.9%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 24.3% 22.3–25.8% 21.9–26.3% 21.4–26.7% 20.7–27.6%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 16.2% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.2–19.2%
Independent 15.9% 10.2% 9.0–11.4% 8.6–11.8% 8.4–12.1% 7.9–12.8%
Labour Party 6.6% 6.1% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Social Democrats 3.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.3% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.8–2.2% 0.6–2.5%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 66 61–68 60–69 60–70 58–71
Fianna Fáil 44 42 40–46 39–47 39–48 38–51
Sinn Féin 23 32 27–34 26–35 24–36 21–37
Independent 19 6 5–10 4–12 3–12 3–14
Labour Party 7 6 3–8 2–10 2–11 1–14
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 3 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Social Democrats 3 3 3 3 3 3–4
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 0 0 0 0–1 0–2
Independents 4 Change 4 3 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Renua Ireland 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–3

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.4% 99.8%  
59 1.5% 99.3%  
60 3% 98%  
61 8% 95%  
62 1.0% 87%  
63 5% 86%  
64 9% 81%  
65 21% 72%  
66 13% 51% Median
67 16% 37%  
68 15% 21%  
69 2% 7%  
70 3% 4%  
71 0.9% 1.0%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 1.2% 99.5%  
39 5% 98%  
40 11% 93%  
41 18% 82%  
42 17% 64% Median
43 13% 48%  
44 15% 34% Last Result
45 9% 20%  
46 4% 10%  
47 3% 6%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.4% 1.4%  
50 0.3% 1.0%  
51 0.3% 0.7%  
52 0.3% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 0.3% 99.8%  
22 0.1% 99.5%  
23 0.7% 99.3% Last Result
24 1.5% 98.6%  
25 0.7% 97%  
26 3% 96%  
27 6% 94%  
28 7% 88%  
29 13% 81%  
30 2% 68%  
31 15% 66%  
32 13% 51% Median
33 13% 39%  
34 19% 26%  
35 3% 6%  
36 3% 4%  
37 0.5% 0.6%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 4% 100%  
4 3% 96%  
5 25% 93%  
6 24% 68% Median
7 21% 44%  
8 8% 23%  
9 2% 15%  
10 4% 13%  
11 1.3% 9%  
12 6% 8%  
13 1.2% 2%  
14 0.4% 0.5%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 1.1% 99.8%  
2 7% 98.6%  
3 5% 91%  
4 23% 86%  
5 12% 63%  
6 19% 51% Median
7 16% 32% Last Result
8 8% 16%  
9 3% 8%  
10 1.0% 5%  
11 2% 4%  
12 0.6% 2%  
13 0.8% 2%  
14 0.5% 0.8%  
15 0.1% 0.3%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 22% 100%  
1 3% 78%  
2 15% 76%  
3 60% 61% Median
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100%  
3 98.8% 99.9% Last Result, Median
4 1.1% 1.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Median
1 3% 4%  
2 2% 2% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100%  
1 2% 88%  
2 23% 86%  
3 18% 63% Median
4 37% 45% Last Result
5 8% 8%  
6 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 77% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 23%  
2 18% 19%  
3 0.9% 0.9%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 108 100% 104–111 104–113 102–114 100–116
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 74 2% 70–78 70–79 69–80 66–85
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 73 2% 70–78 68–79 67–80 65–83
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 71 0.5% 67–75 67–76 66–77 63–82
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 70 0.5% 67–75 67–76 65–77 63–81
Fine Gael 49 66 0% 61–68 60–69 60–70 58–71
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 66 0% 61–68 60–69 60–70 58–71
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 52 0% 47–55 47–57 45–58 44–61
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 49 0% 44–52 44–54 42–55 41–58
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 49 0% 44–52 44–54 42–55 41–58
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 42 0% 40–46 39–47 39–48 38–51

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.5% 99.8%  
101 0.7% 99.3%  
102 1.4% 98.6%  
103 2% 97%  
104 5% 95%  
105 7% 90%  
106 12% 83%  
107 6% 71%  
108 25% 65% Median
109 18% 40%  
110 6% 22%  
111 7% 16%  
112 4% 9%  
113 2% 5%  
114 0.9% 3%  
115 0.5% 2%  
116 1.2% 1.4%  
117 0.1% 0.2%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0.1% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.9%  
66 0.7% 99.6%  
67 1.0% 98.8%  
68 0.3% 98%  
69 2% 98%  
70 8% 95%  
71 9% 87%  
72 5% 78%  
73 22% 73%  
74 12% 51%  
75 12% 40% Median
76 2% 28%  
77 11% 26%  
78 9% 15%  
79 1.5% 6%  
80 3% 5%  
81 0.5% 2% Majority
82 0.4% 2%  
83 0.6% 1.1%  
84 0% 0.5%  
85 0.4% 0.5%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 1.1% 99.6%  
66 0.5% 98.6%  
67 2% 98% Last Result
68 5% 97%  
69 2% 92%  
70 3% 90%  
71 13% 87%  
72 4% 73%  
73 21% 70%  
74 3% 48% Median
75 16% 45%  
76 4% 30%  
77 16% 26%  
78 5% 10%  
79 2% 5%  
80 2% 4%  
81 0.5% 2% Majority
82 0.6% 1.1%  
83 0.1% 0.6%  
84 0.3% 0.4%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.9%  
63 0.7% 99.6%  
64 1.0% 98.9%  
65 0.4% 98%  
66 2% 98%  
67 8% 95%  
68 9% 87%  
69 5% 78%  
70 22% 73%  
71 11% 51%  
72 12% 40% Median
73 2% 28%  
74 11% 26%  
75 9% 15%  
76 1.5% 6%  
77 3% 5%  
78 0.5% 2%  
79 0.4% 2%  
80 0.6% 1.1%  
81 0% 0.5% Majority
82 0.4% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100% Last Result
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.9%  
63 0.7% 99.5%  
64 1.0% 98.8%  
65 0.5% 98%  
66 2% 97%  
67 8% 95%  
68 9% 87%  
69 5% 78%  
70 23% 72%  
71 11% 50%  
72 12% 39% Median
73 2% 28%  
74 11% 26%  
75 9% 15%  
76 2% 6%  
77 2% 4%  
78 0.3% 2%  
79 0.4% 1.5%  
80 0.6% 1.1%  
81 0.1% 0.5% Majority
82 0.4% 0.5%  
83 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.4% 99.8%  
59 1.5% 99.3%  
60 3% 98%  
61 8% 95%  
62 1.0% 87%  
63 5% 86%  
64 9% 81%  
65 21% 72%  
66 13% 51% Median
67 16% 37%  
68 15% 21%  
69 2% 7%  
70 3% 4%  
71 0.9% 1.0%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.4% 99.8%  
59 1.5% 99.4%  
60 3% 98%  
61 8% 95%  
62 1.1% 87%  
63 4% 86%  
64 9% 81%  
65 21% 72%  
66 13% 51% Median
67 16% 38%  
68 14% 22%  
69 3% 8%  
70 4% 5%  
71 1.1% 1.3%  
72 0.2% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.8% 99.8%  
45 2% 98.9%  
46 1.0% 97%  
47 6% 96%  
48 13% 89%  
49 10% 77%  
50 7% 66%  
51 9% 60% Median
52 18% 51%  
53 10% 33%  
54 10% 23%  
55 4% 13%  
56 2% 10% Last Result
57 3% 7%  
58 3% 5%  
59 0.7% 2%  
60 0.3% 1.0%  
61 0.4% 0.7%  
62 0.1% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.9% 99.8%  
42 2% 98.9%  
43 0.9% 97%  
44 6% 96%  
45 13% 89%  
46 10% 76%  
47 6% 66%  
48 9% 60% Median
49 18% 51%  
50 10% 33%  
51 10% 23%  
52 4% 13%  
53 2% 10% Last Result
54 3% 7%  
55 3% 5%  
56 0.7% 2%  
57 0.3% 1.0%  
58 0.4% 0.7%  
59 0.1% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.8% 99.7%  
42 2% 98.9%  
43 1.0% 97%  
44 7% 96%  
45 13% 89%  
46 10% 76%  
47 6% 66%  
48 9% 60% Median
49 18% 50%  
50 10% 32%  
51 10% 23% Last Result
52 3% 12%  
53 2% 9%  
54 3% 7%  
55 3% 4%  
56 0.4% 1.4%  
57 0.3% 1.0%  
58 0.4% 0.7%  
59 0.1% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 1.1% 99.5%  
39 5% 98%  
40 11% 94%  
41 18% 83%  
42 16% 65% Median
43 14% 49%  
44 14% 35%  
45 11% 21%  
46 4% 10% Last Result
47 2% 6%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.4% 1.5%  
50 0.3% 1.0%  
51 0.3% 0.7%  
52 0.3% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations