Opinion Poll by Behaviour and Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 5–17 April 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 32.5% 30.4–34.3% 29.9–34.9% 29.4–35.4% 28.5–36.4%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 24.6% 22.7–26.3% 22.2–26.9% 21.8–27.3% 21.0–28.3%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 20.7% 18.9–22.4% 18.5–22.9% 18.1–23.3% 17.3–24.2%
Independent 15.9% 8.4% 7.2–9.6% 6.9–9.9% 6.7–10.3% 6.2–10.9%
Labour Party 6.6% 6.0% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.4% 4.6–7.7% 4.2–8.2%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.3–2.9% 1.2–3.0% 1.0–3.4%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.1% 0.7–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Social Democrats 3.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.3% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 63 59–65 58–66 56–66 53–68
Fianna Fáil 44 43 39–47 38–48 37–49 35–51
Sinn Féin 23 37 36–40 35–40 33–40 32–41
Independent 19 4 3–6 3–7 3–8 3–11
Labour Party 7 10 5–15 4–16 3–16 2–17
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 0 0 0–1 0–2 0–2
Independents 4 Change 4 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 0–3
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Social Democrats 3 0 0–1 0–3 0–3 0–3
Renua Ireland 0 1 0–2 0–2 0–3 0–3

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.3% 99.8%  
54 0.7% 99.5%  
55 0.4% 98.8%  
56 1.3% 98%  
57 2% 97%  
58 2% 95%  
59 9% 93%  
60 3% 84%  
61 15% 82%  
62 8% 66%  
63 24% 59% Median
64 13% 35%  
65 14% 22%  
66 5% 7%  
67 1.4% 2%  
68 0.7% 0.9%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.4% 99.8%  
36 0.9% 99.4%  
37 1.1% 98.6%  
38 5% 97%  
39 7% 93%  
40 5% 86%  
41 12% 81%  
42 8% 68%  
43 14% 60% Median
44 18% 46% Last Result
45 9% 28%  
46 5% 19%  
47 7% 14%  
48 2% 7%  
49 2% 4%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.7%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.2% 100%  
32 1.1% 99.8%  
33 2% 98.7%  
34 0.8% 97%  
35 2% 96%  
36 34% 94%  
37 18% 60% Median
38 18% 42%  
39 9% 24%  
40 14% 15%  
41 0.6% 0.8%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 44% 99.8%  
4 19% 56% Median
5 25% 37%  
6 6% 12%  
7 3% 7%  
8 2% 4%  
9 0.9% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.9%  
11 0.4% 0.6%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0.1% 99.9%  
2 0.9% 99.7%  
3 3% 98.9%  
4 3% 96%  
5 5% 93%  
6 19% 88%  
7 5% 69% Last Result
8 4% 64%  
9 9% 60%  
10 10% 51% Median
11 18% 41%  
12 3% 24%  
13 5% 21%  
14 3% 15%  
15 5% 12%  
16 5% 6%  
17 1.2% 2%  
18 0.3% 0.4%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Median
1 1.5% 5%  
2 4% 4% Last Result
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.7% 100%  
1 9% 99.3%  
2 78% 90% Median
3 12% 12%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Median
1 11% 11%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 50% 100% Median
1 42% 50%  
2 2% 8%  
3 5% 5% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 41% 100% Last Result
1 42% 59% Median
2 12% 17%  
3 5% 5%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 106 100% 101–109 100–110 99–112 97–115
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 80 46% 77–84 76–86 74–87 73–89
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 73 0.2% 69–77 68–78 66–78 63–80
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 72 0.1% 68–76 67–77 65–78 62–79
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 72 0.1% 68–76 67–77 65–78 62–79
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 63 0% 59–65 58–66 56–67 54–68
Fine Gael 49 63 0% 59–65 58–66 56–66 53–68
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 53 0% 49–57 47–59 46–61 43–63
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 52 0% 48–56 46–58 45–61 43–62
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 52 0% 48–56 46–58 45–61 43–62
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 43 0% 39–47 38–48 38–49 35–51

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0.1% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.5% 99.7%  
98 1.0% 99.2%  
99 1.3% 98%  
100 3% 97%  
101 4% 93%  
102 13% 90%  
103 5% 77%  
104 9% 72%  
105 9% 63%  
106 19% 54% Median
107 9% 35%  
108 6% 27%  
109 12% 21%  
110 4% 9%  
111 0.7% 4%  
112 2% 4%  
113 0.5% 1.3%  
114 0.2% 0.8%  
115 0.5% 0.6%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.3% 99.8%  
73 1.0% 99.6%  
74 1.2% 98.5%  
75 2% 97%  
76 4% 96%  
77 13% 91%  
78 10% 79%  
79 14% 69%  
80 9% 55% Median
81 9% 46% Majority
82 12% 38%  
83 7% 26%  
84 10% 19%  
85 4% 9%  
86 2% 5%  
87 0.9% 3%  
88 0.7% 2%  
89 1.0% 1.3%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
62 0.1% 99.7%  
63 0.3% 99.6%  
64 0.9% 99.3%  
65 0.7% 98%  
66 0.9% 98%  
67 2% 97%  
68 4% 95%  
69 14% 92%  
70 6% 78%  
71 14% 72%  
72 5% 57%  
73 9% 52% Median
74 15% 43%  
75 7% 28%  
76 7% 21%  
77 8% 14%  
78 5% 7%  
79 1.0% 2%  
80 0.6% 0.8%  
81 0.1% 0.2% Majority
82 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0.3% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.7%  
62 0.6% 99.6%  
63 0.3% 99.1%  
64 0.8% 98.8%  
65 1.0% 98%  
66 1.3% 97%  
67 3% 96%  
68 8% 92%  
69 11% 84%  
70 8% 73%  
71 11% 65%  
72 5% 54%  
73 12% 49% Median
74 15% 37%  
75 7% 22%  
76 8% 15%  
77 3% 7%  
78 3% 4%  
79 0.5% 0.7%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1% Majority
82 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100% Last Result
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0.3% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.7%  
62 0.6% 99.6%  
63 0.4% 99.1%  
64 0.9% 98.7%  
65 1.0% 98%  
66 1.3% 97%  
67 3% 96%  
68 9% 92%  
69 10% 84%  
70 8% 73%  
71 11% 65%  
72 5% 54%  
73 12% 49% Median
74 17% 36%  
75 7% 20%  
76 6% 13%  
77 3% 6%  
78 3% 3%  
79 0.5% 0.6%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0.1% Majority
82 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.3% 99.8%  
54 0.7% 99.5%  
55 0.4% 98.8%  
56 1.1% 98%  
57 2% 97%  
58 2% 95%  
59 9% 93%  
60 3% 85%  
61 15% 82%  
62 7% 67%  
63 23% 59% Median
64 13% 37%  
65 16% 24%  
66 6% 8%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.8% 1.1%  
69 0.1% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.3% 99.8%  
54 0.7% 99.5%  
55 0.4% 98.8%  
56 1.3% 98%  
57 2% 97%  
58 2% 95%  
59 9% 93%  
60 3% 84%  
61 15% 82%  
62 8% 66%  
63 24% 59% Median
64 13% 35%  
65 14% 22%  
66 5% 7%  
67 1.4% 2%  
68 0.7% 0.9%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.8%  
43 0.4% 99.7%  
44 0.2% 99.4%  
45 0.5% 99.2%  
46 3% 98.7%  
47 3% 95%  
48 2% 93%  
49 2% 91%  
50 17% 89%  
51 5% 72%  
52 12% 67%  
53 8% 56% Median
54 13% 48%  
55 5% 35%  
56 9% 30% Last Result
57 12% 21%  
58 2% 9%  
59 2% 7%  
60 1.1% 5%  
61 2% 4%  
62 0.7% 1.4%  
63 0.5% 0.8%  
64 0.1% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.7%  
43 0.3% 99.5%  
44 0.5% 99.3%  
45 3% 98.8%  
46 2% 96%  
47 3% 94%  
48 2% 91%  
49 4% 88%  
50 17% 84%  
51 6% 67%  
52 12% 61%  
53 4% 49% Last Result, Median
54 14% 45%  
55 8% 32%  
56 14% 24%  
57 3% 10%  
58 2% 7%  
59 1.3% 5%  
60 0.7% 4%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.3% 0.7%  
63 0.2% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.7%  
43 0.3% 99.5%  
44 0.5% 99.2%  
45 3% 98.7%  
46 2% 96%  
47 3% 93%  
48 2% 90%  
49 5% 88%  
50 18% 84%  
51 6% 66% Last Result
52 12% 59%  
53 3% 48% Median
54 14% 45%  
55 8% 30%  
56 13% 23%  
57 3% 10%  
58 2% 7%  
59 1.4% 5%  
60 0.7% 3%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.3% 0.7%  
63 0.2% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.4% 99.8%  
36 0.8% 99.5%  
37 1.1% 98.6%  
38 5% 98%  
39 6% 93%  
40 5% 87%  
41 13% 82%  
42 9% 70%  
43 13% 60% Median
44 18% 48%  
45 10% 30%  
46 5% 20% Last Result
47 8% 15%  
48 2% 7%  
49 2% 5%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0.5% 0.8%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations