Opinion Poll by Ipsos MRBI for The Irish Times, 16–17 April 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 31.0% 29.3–32.8% 28.9–33.3% 28.4–33.7% 27.6–34.5%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 26.0% 24.4–27.7% 24.0–28.2% 23.6–28.6% 22.8–29.4%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 22.0% 20.5–23.6% 20.1–24.1% 19.7–24.4% 19.1–25.2%
Independent 15.9% 7.6% 6.7–8.7% 6.4–9.0% 6.2–9.2% 5.8–9.8%
Labour Party 6.6% 5.0% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.2% 3.9–6.4% 3.6–6.8%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 1.9–4.5%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.3%
Social Democrats 3.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.6% 0.4–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 59 57–65 54–66 54–67 53–67
Fianna Fáil 44 50 44–53 42–53 41–53 41–54
Sinn Féin 23 40 36–42 35–44 35–44 35–45
Independent 19 3 3–4 3–4 3–5 2–6
Labour Party 7 2 2–7 2–7 1–7 0–8
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 0 0–2 0–2 0–3 0–3
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 0 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–4
Social Democrats 3 1 0–2 0–3 0–3 0–3
Independents 4 Change 4 1 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100% Last Result
50 0% 99.9%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.1% 99.8%  
53 0.4% 99.7%  
54 5% 99.4%  
55 1.0% 95%  
56 2% 94%  
57 6% 91%  
58 11% 85%  
59 28% 75% Median
60 4% 47%  
61 9% 43%  
62 4% 34%  
63 15% 30%  
64 0.3% 15%  
65 5% 14%  
66 6% 9%  
67 3% 3%  
68 0.3% 0.4%  
69 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 3% 99.6%  
42 3% 97%  
43 2% 94%  
44 6% 92% Last Result
45 4% 86%  
46 16% 82%  
47 1.2% 67%  
48 12% 66%  
49 2% 53%  
50 3% 51% Median
51 29% 48%  
52 8% 18%  
53 9% 10%  
54 0.8% 1.3%  
55 0.2% 0.4%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0.3% 100%  
35 8% 99.7%  
36 3% 92%  
37 4% 89%  
38 19% 85%  
39 6% 66%  
40 16% 59% Median
41 4% 43%  
42 31% 40%  
43 2% 9%  
44 5% 7%  
45 1.1% 1.3%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 2% 99.9%  
3 51% 98% Median
4 44% 48%  
5 2% 3%  
6 0.7% 0.9%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100%  
1 3% 99.0%  
2 47% 96% Median
3 32% 50%  
4 0.6% 18%  
5 0.8% 17%  
6 3% 16%  
7 12% 13% Last Result
8 0.7% 0.9%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 51% 100% Median
1 10% 49%  
2 36% 39% Last Result
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 59% 100% Median
1 19% 41%  
2 9% 22%  
3 9% 13%  
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 37% 100%  
1 24% 63% Median
2 32% 39%  
3 6% 6% Last Result
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 50% 100%  
1 17% 50% Median
2 3% 33%  
3 10% 31%  
4 20% 21% Last Result
5 0.8% 0.8%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 109 100% 106–113 104–114 103–114 101–115
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 88 97% 84–93 82–94 80–95 79–96
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 64 0% 63–70 60–72 59–73 58–75
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 63 0% 62–69 60–71 59–72 57–75
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 62 0% 60–68 59–69 58–72 56–73
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 60 0% 57–67 56–67 55–68 54–69
Fine Gael 49 59 0% 57–65 54–66 54–67 53–67
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 55 0% 49–58 47–60 46–61 44–62
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 54 0% 47–56 47–59 45–60 44–60
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 53 0% 46–55 46–57 44–59 43–59
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 50 0% 45–53 43–53 43–54 42–55

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.4% 99.8%  
102 2% 99.4%  
103 1.1% 98%  
104 2% 97%  
105 2% 94%  
106 15% 93%  
107 4% 78%  
108 9% 74%  
109 17% 65% Median
110 31% 48%  
111 4% 17%  
112 2% 13%  
113 0.9% 11%  
114 7% 10%  
115 2% 2%  
116 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0.3% 99.9%  
79 0.7% 99.6%  
80 2% 99.0%  
81 1.3% 97% Majority
82 2% 96%  
83 0.9% 94%  
84 19% 93%  
85 3% 74%  
86 5% 71%  
87 2% 66%  
88 19% 64%  
89 5% 45%  
90 3% 40% Median
91 2% 36%  
92 1.0% 34%  
93 26% 33%  
94 4% 7%  
95 3% 3%  
96 0.2% 0.6%  
97 0.2% 0.4%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.8%  
58 0.3% 99.5%  
59 3% 99.2%  
60 1.2% 96%  
61 0.8% 95% Last Result
62 2% 94% Median
63 16% 92%  
64 34% 76%  
65 4% 42%  
66 2% 38%  
67 18% 37%  
68 0.8% 19%  
69 3% 18%  
70 6% 15%  
71 4% 10%  
72 2% 5%  
73 0.6% 3%  
74 0.9% 2%  
75 1.1% 2%  
76 0.3% 0.5%  
77 0.2% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.7%  
58 0.8% 99.4% Last Result
59 3% 98.5%  
60 2% 95%  
61 1.5% 93% Median
62 39% 92%  
63 11% 53%  
64 3% 42%  
65 4% 39%  
66 0.9% 35%  
67 18% 34%  
68 0.8% 16%  
69 6% 15%  
70 3% 9%  
71 2% 5%  
72 0.9% 3%  
73 0.7% 2%  
74 0.9% 2%  
75 0.8% 0.8%  
76 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 0.5% 99.5% Last Result
57 0.3% 99.1%  
58 2% 98.8%  
59 3% 97%  
60 10% 93%  
61 6% 84% Median
62 28% 77%  
63 11% 49%  
64 4% 39%  
65 15% 35%  
66 0.8% 20%  
67 5% 19%  
68 7% 14%  
69 3% 8%  
70 2% 5%  
71 0.4% 3%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.8% 0.8%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100% Last Result
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.7%  
55 4% 99.5%  
56 2% 96%  
57 4% 94%  
58 2% 89%  
59 29% 87% Median
60 12% 58%  
61 10% 46%  
62 4% 35%  
63 2% 32%  
64 1.4% 30%  
65 16% 28%  
66 1.3% 12%  
67 6% 11%  
68 3% 5%  
69 2% 2%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100% Last Result
50 0% 99.9%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.1% 99.8%  
53 0.4% 99.7%  
54 5% 99.4%  
55 1.0% 95%  
56 2% 94%  
57 6% 91%  
58 11% 85%  
59 28% 75% Median
60 4% 47%  
61 9% 43%  
62 4% 34%  
63 15% 30%  
64 0.3% 15%  
65 5% 14%  
66 6% 9%  
67 3% 3%  
68 0.3% 0.4%  
69 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.8% 99.9%  
45 1.4% 99.1%  
46 1.4% 98%  
47 2% 96%  
48 1.0% 94%  
49 5% 93%  
50 14% 88%  
51 1.3% 73%  
52 3% 72%  
53 15% 69% Median
54 2% 54%  
55 5% 52%  
56 33% 47% Last Result
57 4% 14%  
58 4% 10%  
59 1.1% 6%  
60 0.7% 5%  
61 4% 5%  
62 0.6% 0.7%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.8% 99.8%  
45 2% 99.0%  
46 2% 97%  
47 5% 95%  
48 2% 90%  
49 2% 88%  
50 15% 87%  
51 2% 72%  
52 12% 70% Median
53 7% 58% Last Result
54 26% 51%  
55 15% 25%  
56 3% 11%  
57 2% 7%  
58 0.5% 6%  
59 0.8% 5%  
60 4% 4%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0% 99.9%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 2% 99.8%  
44 1.2% 98%  
45 2% 97%  
46 6% 95%  
47 2% 90%  
48 15% 88%  
49 2% 73%  
50 10% 71%  
51 3% 61% Last Result
52 4% 58% Median
53 7% 55%  
54 27% 48%  
55 13% 21%  
56 2% 7%  
57 0.9% 5%  
58 0.5% 5%  
59 4% 4%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 1.0% 99.7%  
43 4% 98.7%  
44 4% 95%  
45 5% 91%  
46 2% 86% Last Result
47 3% 84%  
48 17% 81%  
49 2% 64%  
50 12% 62% Median
51 28% 50%  
52 4% 22%  
53 15% 18%  
54 1.1% 3%  
55 2% 2%  
56 0.1% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations