Opinion Poll by Red C for The Sunday Business Post, 26 April 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 32.5% 30.4–34.2% 29.9–34.8% 29.5–35.3% 28.6–36.2%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 25.5% 23.6–27.1% 23.1–27.6% 22.7–28.1% 21.9–29.0%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 14.2% 12.8–15.6% 12.4–16.0% 12.1–16.4% 11.5–17.1%
Independent 15.9% 11.2% 9.9–12.5% 9.6–12.9% 9.3–13.2% 8.7–13.9%
Labour Party 6.6% 6.1% 5.2–7.2% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–7.8% 4.4–8.3%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Social Democrats 3.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.7%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.3% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 65 60–70 58–70 55–71 52–71
Fianna Fáil 44 47 41–53 40–53 39–54 38–56
Sinn Féin 23 23 19–31 19–32 18–33 17–35
Independent 19 9 6–13 5–14 5–16 3–16
Labour Party 7 4 2–10 2–14 2–14 0–17
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 1 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Social Democrats 3 3 1–4 1–4 1–4 1–4
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Independents 4 Change 4 4 2–5 2–5 2–5 0–5
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0.8% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.1%  
54 0.2% 99.0%  
55 2% 98.8%  
56 0.2% 96%  
57 1.1% 96%  
58 0.4% 95%  
59 0.9% 95%  
60 5% 94%  
61 2% 89%  
62 3% 87%  
63 6% 85%  
64 11% 78%  
65 17% 67% Median
66 6% 50%  
67 6% 44%  
68 14% 38%  
69 10% 23%  
70 9% 14%  
71 4% 4%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 2% 99.9%  
39 0.6% 98%  
40 6% 97%  
41 2% 91%  
42 6% 89%  
43 7% 83%  
44 11% 76% Last Result
45 4% 65%  
46 4% 61%  
47 8% 57% Median
48 2% 49%  
49 5% 47%  
50 17% 42%  
51 2% 25%  
52 1.1% 23%  
53 19% 22%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.6% 2%  
56 1.1% 1.1%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.8% 99.9%  
18 3% 99.1%  
19 10% 96%  
20 3% 86%  
21 4% 83%  
22 16% 79%  
23 15% 63% Last Result, Median
24 4% 48%  
25 13% 44%  
26 2% 32%  
27 8% 30%  
28 3% 22%  
29 4% 19%  
30 4% 15%  
31 5% 11%  
32 2% 6%  
33 2% 4%  
34 0.5% 2%  
35 0.7% 1.0%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.7% 100%  
4 0.8% 99.3%  
5 8% 98.5%  
6 2% 90%  
7 8% 88%  
8 8% 80%  
9 26% 72% Median
10 9% 46%  
11 22% 37%  
12 2% 15%  
13 5% 14%  
14 4% 8%  
15 1.4% 4%  
16 3% 3%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100%  
1 1.5% 99.0%  
2 20% 98%  
3 15% 77%  
4 19% 62% Median
5 12% 43%  
6 4% 31%  
7 2% 28% Last Result
8 5% 26%  
9 10% 21%  
10 1.0% 11%  
11 2% 10%  
12 1.2% 8%  
13 1.4% 7%  
14 3% 5%  
15 1.2% 2%  
16 0.2% 0.7%  
17 0.5% 0.6%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 44% 100%  
1 11% 56% Median
2 10% 45%  
3 34% 35%  
4 1.4% 2%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 14% 99.9%  
2 3% 86%  
3 69% 83% Last Result, Median
4 15% 15%  
5 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 76% 100% Median
1 23% 24%  
2 0.8% 0.9% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100%  
1 1.1% 98.8%  
2 23% 98%  
3 16% 75%  
4 40% 59% Last Result, Median
5 19% 19%  
6 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 114 100% 105–118 102–118 100–118 99–121
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 73 13% 68–81 66–81 62–82 59–86
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 72 2% 66–75 65–78 64–80 61–83
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 72 1.1% 65–78 63–78 59–79 56–83
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 71 1.1% 65–78 63–78 59–79 56–82
Fine Gael 49 65 0% 60–70 58–70 55–71 52–71
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 66 0% 60–70 58–71 55–71 52–72
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 56 0% 51–60 49–61 46–64 45–67
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 54 0% 47–57 46–59 43–62 42–64
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 53 0% 47–57 45–58 42–62 42–64
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 47 0% 41–53 40–53 39–54 39–56

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.2% 99.8%  
99 2% 99.7%  
100 1.3% 98%  
101 0.1% 96%  
102 2% 96%  
103 1.1% 94%  
104 0.5% 92%  
105 4% 92%  
106 4% 88%  
107 5% 84%  
108 3% 79%  
109 0.6% 77%  
110 5% 76%  
111 2% 71%  
112 12% 69% Median
113 2% 57%  
114 12% 55%  
115 3% 43%  
116 1.4% 41%  
117 7% 39%  
118 31% 32%  
119 1.1% 2%  
120 0.1% 0.8%  
121 0.6% 0.7%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.8% 100%  
60 0% 99.2%  
61 0% 99.2% Last Result
62 2% 99.2%  
63 0.8% 97%  
64 0.2% 96%  
65 0.9% 96%  
66 1.0% 95%  
67 0.7% 94%  
68 4% 93%  
69 3% 89%  
70 15% 86%  
71 8% 72%  
72 4% 64% Median
73 14% 60%  
74 6% 46%  
75 0.8% 40%  
76 6% 39%  
77 2% 33%  
78 10% 30%  
79 3% 21%  
80 4% 18%  
81 9% 13% Majority
82 3% 4%  
83 0.1% 1.3%  
84 0.2% 1.2%  
85 0% 1.0%  
86 0.8% 0.9%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0% 99.9%  
61 0.8% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.0%  
63 0.2% 98.9%  
64 1.4% 98.7%  
65 4% 97%  
66 4% 94%  
67 8% 90% Last Result
68 8% 82%  
69 4% 74%  
70 5% 70% Median
71 9% 65%  
72 8% 56%  
73 16% 49%  
74 1.4% 32%  
75 23% 31%  
76 0.9% 8%  
77 0.6% 7%  
78 2% 7%  
79 1.0% 4%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.7% 2% Majority
82 0% 0.9%  
83 0.8% 0.9%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.8% 100%  
57 0% 99.2%  
58 0% 99.2% Last Result
59 2% 99.1%  
60 0.8% 97%  
61 0.3% 96%  
62 0.2% 96%  
63 2% 96%  
64 0.9% 94%  
65 4% 93%  
66 3% 90%  
67 15% 86%  
68 7% 72%  
69 6% 64% Median
70 5% 59%  
71 2% 54%  
72 13% 52%  
73 7% 39%  
74 7% 32%  
75 5% 25%  
76 4% 21%  
77 2% 17%  
78 11% 15%  
79 3% 4%  
80 0.2% 1.2%  
81 0.1% 1.1% Majority
82 0% 1.0%  
83 0.8% 0.9%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.8% 100% Last Result
57 0% 99.2%  
58 0% 99.2%  
59 2% 99.1%  
60 0.9% 97%  
61 0.5% 96%  
62 0.1% 96%  
63 2% 95%  
64 0.8% 94%  
65 4% 93%  
66 3% 90%  
67 16% 86%  
68 8% 70%  
69 4% 62% Median
70 5% 58%  
71 12% 53%  
72 5% 41%  
73 5% 36%  
74 6% 31%  
75 5% 25%  
76 4% 20%  
77 2% 16%  
78 11% 15%  
79 3% 4%  
80 0.2% 1.2%  
81 0.1% 1.1% Majority
82 0.7% 0.9%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0.8% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.1%  
54 0.2% 99.0%  
55 2% 98.8%  
56 0.2% 96%  
57 1.1% 96%  
58 0.4% 95%  
59 0.9% 95%  
60 5% 94%  
61 2% 89%  
62 3% 87%  
63 6% 85%  
64 11% 78%  
65 17% 67% Median
66 6% 50%  
67 6% 44%  
68 14% 38%  
69 10% 23%  
70 9% 14%  
71 4% 4%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result
52 0.8% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.1%  
54 0.1% 99.0%  
55 2% 98.8%  
56 0.2% 97%  
57 1.2% 97%  
58 0.4% 95%  
59 0.9% 95%  
60 5% 94%  
61 1.3% 89%  
62 0.8% 87%  
63 5% 87%  
64 14% 81%  
65 17% 68% Median
66 4% 50%  
67 7% 46%  
68 3% 39%  
69 22% 36%  
70 8% 14%  
71 5% 6%  
72 1.0% 1.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 1.0% 100%  
46 2% 98.9%  
47 0.9% 97%  
48 0.5% 96%  
49 3% 96%  
50 3% 93%  
51 4% 90%  
52 7% 86%  
53 2% 80%  
54 6% 78% Median
55 19% 72%  
56 11% 53% Last Result
57 6% 42%  
58 24% 37%  
59 2% 13%  
60 5% 11%  
61 2% 6%  
62 0.5% 4%  
63 0.1% 4%  
64 2% 4%  
65 0.3% 1.4%  
66 0.4% 1.2%  
67 0.6% 0.7%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 1.1% 100%  
43 2% 98.9%  
44 1.1% 97%  
45 0.3% 96%  
46 3% 96%  
47 3% 92%  
48 8% 90%  
49 2% 81%  
50 5% 80%  
51 3% 75% Median
52 11% 72%  
53 6% 61% Last Result
54 16% 55%  
55 26% 39%  
56 2% 13%  
57 5% 11%  
58 1.3% 6%  
59 0.7% 5%  
60 0.7% 4%  
61 0.9% 4%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.4% 1.2%  
64 0.6% 0.7%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 3% 99.9%  
43 0.3% 97%  
44 0.9% 97%  
45 3% 96%  
46 0.9% 93%  
47 3% 92%  
48 9% 89%  
49 3% 81%  
50 3% 77%  
51 3% 75% Last Result, Median
52 11% 72%  
53 17% 60%  
54 6% 43%  
55 25% 37%  
56 2% 13%  
57 5% 11%  
58 1.4% 6%  
59 0.6% 5%  
60 0.3% 4%  
61 0.9% 4%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.4% 1.2%  
64 0.6% 0.7%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.8%  
40 4% 97%  
41 4% 93%  
42 4% 90%  
43 10% 85%  
44 8% 76%  
45 6% 67%  
46 4% 61% Last Result
47 8% 57% Median
48 2% 49%  
49 6% 48%  
50 6% 42%  
51 12% 36%  
52 2% 24%  
53 18% 22%  
54 2% 4%  
55 0.1% 2%  
56 2% 2%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations