Opinion Poll by Behaviour and Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 3–15 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 30.3% 28.4–32.3% 27.9–32.8% 27.4–33.3% 26.5–34.3%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 24.3% 22.5–26.2% 22.1–26.7% 21.6–27.1% 20.8–28.0%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 23.2% 21.5–25.1% 21.0–25.6% 20.6–26.0% 19.8–26.9%
Independent 15.9% 8.6% 7.5–9.8% 7.2–10.2% 6.9–10.5% 6.4–11.2%
Labour Party 6.6% 4.1% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 2.0% 1.6–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.2% 1.1–3.6%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 2.0% 1.6–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.2% 1.1–3.6%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.1% 0.7–1.6% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%
Social Democrats 3.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 62 56–65 55–66 54–67 52–68
Sinn Féin 23 45 42–47 40–47 40–48 38–49
Fianna Fáil 44 41 38–46 38–48 37–49 36–51
Independent 19 5 4–7 4–8 3–8 3–10
Labour Party 7 2 0–4 0–5 0–6 0–7
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 0 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–4
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Independents 4 Change 4 3 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Social Democrats 3 0 0–2 0–3 0–3 0–4

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.7%  
53 2% 99.4%  
54 2% 98%  
55 1.3% 96%  
56 4% 94%  
57 2% 90%  
58 5% 88%  
59 9% 83%  
60 6% 74%  
61 11% 68%  
62 19% 57% Median
63 15% 38%  
64 11% 23%  
65 4% 13%  
66 5% 9%  
67 3% 4%  
68 0.9% 1.0%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 0.4% 99.7%  
39 1.3% 99.2%  
40 3% 98%  
41 3% 95%  
42 6% 92%  
43 10% 86%  
44 13% 76%  
45 22% 63% Median
46 30% 41%  
47 7% 12%  
48 3% 4%  
49 1.4% 1.4%  
50 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 0.7% 99.8%  
37 3% 99.1%  
38 15% 96%  
39 10% 81%  
40 15% 71%  
41 8% 56% Median
42 18% 48%  
43 3% 29%  
44 7% 26% Last Result
45 6% 20%  
46 5% 14%  
47 3% 9%  
48 3% 6%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.7% 2%  
51 0.5% 0.8%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 5% 99.8%  
4 17% 95%  
5 33% 78% Median
6 26% 45%  
7 13% 19%  
8 5% 6%  
9 0.5% 1.2%  
10 0.5% 0.7%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 19% 100%  
1 12% 81%  
2 47% 69% Median
3 11% 22%  
4 5% 11%  
5 3% 6%  
6 1.5% 3%  
7 1.2% 1.3% Last Result
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 66% 100% Median
1 13% 34%  
2 9% 21%  
3 8% 12%  
4 4% 4%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Median
1 10% 11%  
2 1.2% 1.2% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100%  
1 18% 86%  
2 17% 68%  
3 19% 50% Median
4 22% 31% Last Result
5 10% 10%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 72% 100% Median
1 12% 28%  
2 9% 16%  
3 6% 7% Last Result
4 0.6% 0.6%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 103 100% 100–106 99–108 97–111 96–112
Sinn Féin – Fianna Fáil 67 87 94% 82–91 80–93 80–94 78–96
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 64 0% 59–68 57–68 56–69 54–71
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 64 0% 60–68 58–68 56–69 54–71
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 64 0% 59–68 57–68 55–68 54–71
Fine Gael 49 62 0% 56–65 55–66 54–67 52–68
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 62 0% 57–65 55–66 54–67 52–68
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 44 0% 40–50 39–51 38–52 38–55
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 44 0% 40–49 38–50 38–51 37–54
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 44 0% 39–49 38–50 38–51 37–54
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 41 0% 38–46 38–48 37–49 36–51

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.1% 100% Last Result
94 0.2% 99.9%  
95 0.2% 99.7%  
96 0.9% 99.6%  
97 1.3% 98.7%  
98 2% 97%  
99 4% 95%  
100 9% 91%  
101 11% 82%  
102 16% 71%  
103 12% 56% Median
104 23% 43%  
105 6% 20%  
106 5% 14%  
107 3% 9%  
108 2% 6%  
109 1.0% 5%  
110 0.9% 4%  
111 2% 3%  
112 0.3% 0.7%  
113 0.3% 0.5%  
114 0.2% 0.2%  
115 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.3% 99.9%  
78 0.4% 99.5%  
79 1.2% 99.1%  
80 4% 98%  
81 2% 94% Majority
82 5% 92%  
83 13% 87%  
84 8% 74%  
85 5% 66%  
86 10% 61% Median
87 13% 51%  
88 18% 38%  
89 5% 20%  
90 4% 16%  
91 3% 12%  
92 4% 9%  
93 3% 6%  
94 2% 3%  
95 1.1% 2%  
96 0.3% 0.6%  
97 0.3% 0.4%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 1.2% 99.7%  
55 0.7% 98.5%  
56 2% 98%  
57 2% 96%  
58 3% 95% Last Result
59 2% 91%  
60 5% 89%  
61 9% 85%  
62 10% 75%  
63 8% 66%  
64 23% 57% Median
65 11% 34%  
66 7% 23%  
67 5% 16%  
68 8% 11%  
69 2% 3%  
70 0.6% 1.2%  
71 0.5% 0.7%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.4% 99.8%  
55 1.0% 99.3%  
56 1.3% 98%  
57 2% 97%  
58 3% 96%  
59 2% 93%  
60 2% 91%  
61 8% 88% Last Result
62 6% 81%  
63 11% 75%  
64 25% 64% Median
65 11% 39%  
66 9% 28%  
67 5% 19%  
68 10% 14%  
69 2% 4%  
70 1.0% 2%  
71 1.0% 1.4%  
72 0.3% 0.4%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 1.3% 99.7%  
55 0.9% 98%  
56 2% 97% Last Result
57 2% 96%  
58 3% 94%  
59 2% 91%  
60 5% 88%  
61 9% 84%  
62 10% 74%  
63 9% 65%  
64 23% 56% Median
65 11% 33%  
66 7% 22%  
67 4% 15%  
68 8% 11%  
69 1.3% 2%  
70 0.4% 1.0%  
71 0.5% 0.6%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.7%  
53 2% 99.4%  
54 2% 98%  
55 1.3% 96%  
56 4% 94%  
57 2% 90%  
58 5% 88%  
59 9% 83%  
60 6% 74%  
61 11% 68%  
62 19% 57% Median
63 15% 38%  
64 11% 23%  
65 4% 13%  
66 5% 9%  
67 3% 4%  
68 0.9% 1.0%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
52 0.3% 99.8%  
53 1.0% 99.4%  
54 2% 98%  
55 2% 96%  
56 4% 95%  
57 2% 90%  
58 4% 88%  
59 9% 84%  
60 7% 75%  
61 10% 69%  
62 19% 58% Median
63 15% 39%  
64 10% 24%  
65 5% 14%  
66 5% 9%  
67 3% 5%  
68 1.0% 1.4%  
69 0.2% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 4% 99.7%  
39 3% 96%  
40 8% 93%  
41 8% 85%  
42 15% 76%  
43 4% 61% Median
44 20% 57%  
45 5% 37%  
46 6% 32%  
47 7% 26%  
48 4% 18%  
49 3% 14%  
50 4% 10%  
51 3% 6%  
52 1.3% 3%  
53 0.9% 2%  
54 0.4% 0.9%  
55 0.3% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 0.5% 99.8%  
38 5% 99.3%  
39 4% 94%  
40 9% 90%  
41 9% 81%  
42 14% 72%  
43 3% 57% Median
44 24% 54%  
45 5% 31%  
46 5% 25%  
47 6% 20%  
48 4% 15%  
49 3% 11%  
50 3% 7%  
51 2% 4%  
52 0.7% 2%  
53 0.6% 1.3% Last Result
54 0.3% 0.7%  
55 0.2% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.5% 99.7%  
38 5% 99.2%  
39 5% 94%  
40 11% 89%  
41 9% 79%  
42 14% 70%  
43 3% 56% Median
44 24% 53%  
45 5% 30%  
46 5% 25%  
47 6% 20%  
48 4% 14%  
49 3% 10%  
50 3% 7%  
51 2% 4% Last Result
52 0.7% 2%  
53 0.6% 1.2%  
54 0.3% 0.6%  
55 0.2% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 0.6% 99.8%  
37 3% 99.3%  
38 13% 96%  
39 10% 83%  
40 16% 74%  
41 9% 57% Median
42 18% 48%  
43 3% 30%  
44 7% 27%  
45 6% 21%  
46 5% 15% Last Result
47 3% 10%  
48 3% 7%  
49 2% 4%  
50 0.8% 2%  
51 0.5% 0.8%  
52 0.2% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations