Opinion Poll by Red C for The Sunday Business Post, 10–16 May 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Fine Gael |
25.5% |
33.9% |
32.0–35.9% |
31.5–36.4% |
31.0–36.9% |
30.1–37.8% |
Fianna Fáil |
24.3% |
24.9% |
23.2–26.7% |
22.7–27.2% |
22.3–27.7% |
21.5–28.6% |
Sinn Féin |
13.8% |
16.0% |
14.6–17.6% |
14.2–18.0% |
13.9–18.4% |
13.2–19.2% |
Independent |
15.9% |
7.6% |
6.6–8.8% |
6.3–9.1% |
6.1–9.4% |
5.7–10.0% |
Labour Party |
6.6% |
6.0% |
5.1–7.1% |
4.9–7.4% |
4.7–7.7% |
4.3–8.2% |
Solidarity–People Before Profit |
3.9% |
3.0% |
2.4–3.8% |
2.2–4.1% |
2.1–4.3% |
1.9–4.7% |
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas |
2.7% |
2.0% |
1.5–2.7% |
1.4–2.9% |
1.3–3.1% |
1.1–3.4% |
Social Democrats |
3.0% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.5–1.8% |
0.4–2.1% |
Independents 4 Change |
1.5% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.5–1.8% |
0.4–2.1% |
Renua Ireland |
2.2% |
0.1% |
0.1–0.5% |
0.1–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
Fine Gael
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
49 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
50 |
0% |
100% |
|
51 |
0% |
100% |
|
52 |
0% |
100% |
|
53 |
0% |
100% |
|
54 |
0% |
100% |
|
55 |
0% |
100% |
|
56 |
0% |
100% |
|
57 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
58 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
59 |
0.9% |
99.3% |
|
60 |
2% |
98% |
|
61 |
3% |
97% |
|
62 |
7% |
94% |
|
63 |
26% |
86% |
|
64 |
10% |
60% |
|
65 |
14% |
50% |
Median |
66 |
13% |
36% |
|
67 |
9% |
23% |
|
68 |
5% |
15% |
|
69 |
1.0% |
9% |
|
70 |
4% |
8% |
|
71 |
5% |
5% |
|
72 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
36 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
37 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
38 |
0.7% |
99.6% |
|
39 |
0.9% |
98.9% |
|
40 |
2% |
98% |
|
41 |
4% |
96% |
|
42 |
8% |
92% |
|
43 |
6% |
84% |
|
44 |
6% |
78% |
Last Result |
45 |
8% |
72% |
|
46 |
29% |
65% |
Median |
47 |
13% |
35% |
|
48 |
8% |
22% |
|
49 |
6% |
15% |
|
50 |
2% |
9% |
|
51 |
3% |
6% |
|
52 |
3% |
3% |
|
53 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
54 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sinn Féin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
22 |
0.6% |
99.6% |
|
23 |
0.6% |
99.0% |
Last Result |
24 |
3% |
98% |
|
25 |
1.4% |
95% |
|
26 |
5% |
94% |
|
27 |
4% |
89% |
|
28 |
0.9% |
85% |
|
29 |
3% |
84% |
|
30 |
13% |
81% |
|
31 |
16% |
68% |
|
32 |
34% |
52% |
Median |
33 |
10% |
18% |
|
34 |
3% |
8% |
|
35 |
3% |
4% |
|
36 |
0.8% |
1.1% |
|
37 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
Independent
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
3 |
66% |
99.7% |
Median |
4 |
25% |
33% |
|
5 |
7% |
8% |
|
6 |
0.4% |
1.4% |
|
7 |
0.5% |
1.0% |
|
8 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
9 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
1 |
0.8% |
99.7% |
|
2 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
3 |
2% |
98.7% |
|
4 |
3% |
96% |
|
5 |
5% |
93% |
|
6 |
6% |
88% |
|
7 |
13% |
82% |
Last Result |
8 |
6% |
68% |
|
9 |
10% |
62% |
|
10 |
20% |
52% |
Median |
11 |
5% |
32% |
|
12 |
7% |
27% |
|
13 |
5% |
20% |
|
14 |
2% |
15% |
|
15 |
9% |
13% |
|
16 |
2% |
3% |
|
17 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
18 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
19 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Solidarity–People Before Profit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
1 |
9% |
99.7% |
|
2 |
13% |
91% |
|
3 |
73% |
78% |
Median |
4 |
3% |
5% |
|
5 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
6 |
0.8% |
1.1% |
Last Result |
7 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
8 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
86% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
7% |
14% |
|
2 |
7% |
7% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Social Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
37% |
100% |
|
1 |
56% |
63% |
Median |
2 |
1.5% |
7% |
|
3 |
6% |
6% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Independents 4 Change
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
3% |
100% |
|
1 |
4% |
97% |
|
2 |
86% |
92% |
Median |
3 |
6% |
6% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Renua Ireland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.4% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil |
93 |
110 |
100% |
104–116 |
104–118 |
103–120 |
101–122 |
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin |
67 |
77 |
7% |
73–80 |
72–81 |
71–82 |
68–84 |
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats |
61 |
75 |
4% |
71–79 |
71–80 |
69–81 |
67–83 |
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas |
58 |
74 |
2% |
71–78 |
70–79 |
68–80 |
67–83 |
Fine Gael – Labour Party |
56 |
73 |
2% |
70–78 |
69–79 |
68–80 |
66–83 |
Fine Gael |
49 |
65 |
0% |
62–68 |
61–70 |
60–71 |
58–71 |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas |
51 |
65 |
0% |
62–69 |
61–71 |
60–71 |
58–72 |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats |
56 |
57 |
0% |
52–60 |
50–61 |
50–62 |
48–66 |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas |
53 |
56 |
0% |
51–59 |
50–61 |
49–61 |
47–65 |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party |
51 |
56 |
0% |
51–59 |
50–61 |
49–61 |
46–65 |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas |
46 |
46 |
0% |
42–50 |
41–51 |
40–52 |
38–54 |
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
93 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
94 |
0% |
100% |
|
95 |
0% |
100% |
|
96 |
0% |
100% |
|
97 |
0% |
100% |
|
98 |
0% |
100% |
|
99 |
0% |
100% |
|
100 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
101 |
0.7% |
99.7% |
|
102 |
1.3% |
99.0% |
|
103 |
1.1% |
98% |
|
104 |
7% |
97% |
|
105 |
2% |
90% |
|
106 |
6% |
88% |
|
107 |
3% |
82% |
|
108 |
5% |
79% |
|
109 |
20% |
75% |
|
110 |
10% |
54% |
|
111 |
6% |
44% |
Median |
112 |
7% |
38% |
|
113 |
8% |
31% |
|
114 |
3% |
24% |
|
115 |
7% |
21% |
|
116 |
4% |
13% |
|
117 |
3% |
10% |
|
118 |
4% |
7% |
|
119 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
120 |
2% |
3% |
|
121 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
122 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
123 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
65 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
66 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
67 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
68 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
69 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
70 |
1.2% |
99.3% |
|
71 |
1.4% |
98% |
|
72 |
4% |
97% |
|
73 |
11% |
93% |
|
74 |
10% |
82% |
|
75 |
7% |
72% |
|
76 |
9% |
65% |
|
77 |
8% |
56% |
|
78 |
28% |
48% |
Median |
79 |
9% |
19% |
|
80 |
4% |
11% |
|
81 |
4% |
7% |
Majority |
82 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
83 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
84 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
85 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
86 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
87 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
61 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
62 |
0% |
100% |
|
63 |
0% |
100% |
|
64 |
0% |
100% |
|
65 |
0% |
100% |
|
66 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
67 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
68 |
0.8% |
98.8% |
|
69 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
70 |
2% |
97% |
|
71 |
6% |
95% |
|
72 |
5% |
89% |
|
73 |
6% |
84% |
|
74 |
25% |
78% |
|
75 |
6% |
52% |
|
76 |
10% |
47% |
Median |
77 |
7% |
36% |
|
78 |
17% |
29% |
|
79 |
5% |
13% |
|
80 |
4% |
8% |
|
81 |
2% |
4% |
Majority |
82 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
83 |
0.6% |
1.0% |
|
84 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
85 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
86 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
87 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
88 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
58 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
59 |
0% |
100% |
|
60 |
0% |
100% |
|
61 |
0% |
100% |
|
62 |
0% |
100% |
|
63 |
0% |
100% |
|
64 |
0% |
100% |
|
65 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
66 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
67 |
1.2% |
99.6% |
|
68 |
1.0% |
98% |
|
69 |
2% |
97% |
|
70 |
5% |
95% |
|
71 |
4% |
90% |
|
72 |
5% |
86% |
|
73 |
28% |
81% |
|
74 |
3% |
53% |
|
75 |
10% |
50% |
Median |
76 |
9% |
39% |
|
77 |
12% |
30% |
|
78 |
10% |
18% |
|
79 |
3% |
8% |
|
80 |
3% |
5% |
|
81 |
1.1% |
2% |
Majority |
82 |
0.5% |
1.1% |
|
83 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
84 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
85 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
86 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
87 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fine Gael – Labour Party

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
56 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
57 |
0% |
100% |
|
58 |
0% |
100% |
|
59 |
0% |
100% |
|
60 |
0% |
100% |
|
61 |
0% |
100% |
|
62 |
0% |
100% |
|
63 |
0% |
100% |
|
64 |
0% |
100% |
|
65 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
66 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
67 |
1.4% |
99.5% |
|
68 |
1.0% |
98% |
|
69 |
3% |
97% |
|
70 |
5% |
94% |
|
71 |
4% |
89% |
|
72 |
6% |
85% |
|
73 |
30% |
78% |
|
74 |
3% |
49% |
|
75 |
9% |
45% |
Median |
76 |
8% |
37% |
|
77 |
12% |
29% |
|
78 |
10% |
17% |
|
79 |
3% |
7% |
|
80 |
1.5% |
4% |
|
81 |
1.1% |
2% |
Majority |
82 |
0.4% |
1.0% |
|
83 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
84 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
85 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
86 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
87 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fine Gael

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
49 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
50 |
0% |
100% |
|
51 |
0% |
100% |
|
52 |
0% |
100% |
|
53 |
0% |
100% |
|
54 |
0% |
100% |
|
55 |
0% |
100% |
|
56 |
0% |
100% |
|
57 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
58 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
59 |
0.9% |
99.3% |
|
60 |
2% |
98% |
|
61 |
3% |
97% |
|
62 |
7% |
94% |
|
63 |
26% |
86% |
|
64 |
10% |
60% |
|
65 |
14% |
50% |
Median |
66 |
13% |
36% |
|
67 |
9% |
23% |
|
68 |
5% |
15% |
|
69 |
1.0% |
9% |
|
70 |
4% |
8% |
|
71 |
5% |
5% |
|
72 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
51 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
52 |
0% |
100% |
|
53 |
0% |
100% |
|
54 |
0% |
100% |
|
55 |
0% |
100% |
|
56 |
0% |
100% |
|
57 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
58 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
59 |
0.9% |
99.3% |
|
60 |
2% |
98% |
|
61 |
3% |
97% |
|
62 |
7% |
94% |
|
63 |
26% |
87% |
|
64 |
7% |
61% |
|
65 |
14% |
54% |
Median |
66 |
11% |
40% |
|
67 |
11% |
29% |
|
68 |
8% |
18% |
|
69 |
1.4% |
10% |
|
70 |
3% |
9% |
|
71 |
5% |
6% |
|
72 |
1.0% |
1.2% |
|
73 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
45 |
0% |
100% |
|
46 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
47 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
48 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
49 |
1.1% |
99.2% |
|
50 |
3% |
98% |
|
51 |
3% |
95% |
|
52 |
3% |
92% |
|
53 |
5% |
89% |
|
54 |
14% |
85% |
|
55 |
4% |
71% |
|
56 |
13% |
67% |
Last Result |
57 |
27% |
54% |
Median |
58 |
11% |
27% |
|
59 |
3% |
16% |
|
60 |
6% |
14% |
|
61 |
4% |
8% |
|
62 |
1.1% |
3% |
|
63 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
64 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
65 |
0.4% |
1.1% |
|
66 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
67 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
68 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
44 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
45 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
46 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
47 |
0.3% |
99.5% |
|
48 |
0.5% |
99.3% |
|
49 |
3% |
98.8% |
|
50 |
2% |
96% |
|
51 |
5% |
94% |
|
52 |
3% |
89% |
|
53 |
11% |
86% |
Last Result |
54 |
11% |
76% |
|
55 |
5% |
64% |
|
56 |
29% |
59% |
Median |
57 |
11% |
30% |
|
58 |
5% |
19% |
|
59 |
6% |
14% |
|
60 |
1.5% |
8% |
|
61 |
4% |
7% |
|
62 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
63 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
64 |
0.4% |
1.1% |
|
65 |
0.4% |
0.8% |
|
66 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
67 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
44 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
45 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
46 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
47 |
0.3% |
99.5% |
|
48 |
1.0% |
99.1% |
|
49 |
3% |
98% |
|
50 |
2% |
95% |
|
51 |
5% |
93% |
Last Result |
52 |
6% |
89% |
|
53 |
10% |
83% |
|
54 |
10% |
72% |
|
55 |
6% |
62% |
|
56 |
28% |
56% |
Median |
57 |
9% |
27% |
|
58 |
5% |
18% |
|
59 |
6% |
14% |
|
60 |
2% |
8% |
|
61 |
3% |
6% |
|
62 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
63 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
64 |
0.3% |
1.1% |
|
65 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
66 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
67 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
36 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
37 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
38 |
0.5% |
99.7% |
|
39 |
1.1% |
99.2% |
|
40 |
2% |
98% |
|
41 |
4% |
97% |
|
42 |
8% |
93% |
|
43 |
5% |
84% |
|
44 |
6% |
79% |
|
45 |
6% |
73% |
|
46 |
25% |
67% |
Last Result, Median |
47 |
17% |
42% |
|
48 |
9% |
25% |
|
49 |
6% |
16% |
|
50 |
3% |
10% |
|
51 |
2% |
7% |
|
52 |
4% |
5% |
|
53 |
0.4% |
1.0% |
|
54 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
55 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Red C
- Commissioner(s): The Sunday Business Post
- Fieldwork period: 10–16 May 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 999
- Simulations done: 1,048,575
- Error estimate: 4.47%