Opinion Poll by Red C for The Sunday Business Post, 10–16 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 33.9% 32.0–35.9% 31.5–36.4% 31.0–36.9% 30.1–37.8%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 24.9% 23.2–26.7% 22.7–27.2% 22.3–27.7% 21.5–28.6%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 16.0% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.2–19.2%
Independent 15.9% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
Labour Party 6.6% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Social Democrats 3.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.1% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 65 62–68 61–70 60–71 58–71
Fianna Fáil 44 46 42–49 41–51 40–52 38–53
Sinn Féin 23 32 26–33 25–34 24–35 22–36
Independent 19 3 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–8
Labour Party 7 10 5–15 4–15 3–16 1–17
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 3 2–3 1–3 1–4 1–6
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 0 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2
Social Democrats 3 1 0–1 0–3 0–3 0–3
Independents 4 Change 4 2 2 1–3 0–3 0–3
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.6% 99.9%  
59 0.9% 99.3%  
60 2% 98%  
61 3% 97%  
62 7% 94%  
63 26% 86%  
64 10% 60%  
65 14% 50% Median
66 13% 36%  
67 9% 23%  
68 5% 15%  
69 1.0% 9%  
70 4% 8%  
71 5% 5%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.8%  
38 0.7% 99.6%  
39 0.9% 98.9%  
40 2% 98%  
41 4% 96%  
42 8% 92%  
43 6% 84%  
44 6% 78% Last Result
45 8% 72%  
46 29% 65% Median
47 13% 35%  
48 8% 22%  
49 6% 15%  
50 2% 9%  
51 3% 6%  
52 3% 3%  
53 0.2% 0.5%  
54 0.3% 0.3%  
55 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.3% 99.8%  
22 0.6% 99.6%  
23 0.6% 99.0% Last Result
24 3% 98%  
25 1.4% 95%  
26 5% 94%  
27 4% 89%  
28 0.9% 85%  
29 3% 84%  
30 13% 81%  
31 16% 68%  
32 34% 52% Median
33 10% 18%  
34 3% 8%  
35 3% 4%  
36 0.8% 1.1%  
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.3% 100%  
3 66% 99.7% Median
4 25% 33%  
5 7% 8%  
6 0.4% 1.4%  
7 0.5% 1.0%  
8 0.3% 0.5%  
9 0.2% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0.8% 99.7%  
2 0.2% 98.9%  
3 2% 98.7%  
4 3% 96%  
5 5% 93%  
6 6% 88%  
7 13% 82% Last Result
8 6% 68%  
9 10% 62%  
10 20% 52% Median
11 5% 32%  
12 7% 27%  
13 5% 20%  
14 2% 15%  
15 9% 13%  
16 2% 3%  
17 1.2% 2%  
18 0.3% 0.4%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 9% 99.7%  
2 13% 91%  
3 73% 78% Median
4 3% 5%  
5 0.5% 2%  
6 0.8% 1.1% Last Result
7 0.3% 0.4%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 86% 100% Median
1 7% 14%  
2 7% 7% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 37% 100%  
1 56% 63% Median
2 1.5% 7%  
3 6% 6% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 4% 97%  
2 86% 92% Median
3 6% 6%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.6% 0.6%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 110 100% 104–116 104–118 103–120 101–122
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 77 7% 73–80 72–81 71–82 68–84
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 75 4% 71–79 71–80 69–81 67–83
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 74 2% 71–78 70–79 68–80 67–83
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 73 2% 70–78 69–79 68–80 66–83
Fine Gael 49 65 0% 62–68 61–70 60–71 58–71
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 65 0% 62–69 61–71 60–71 58–72
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 57 0% 52–60 50–61 50–62 48–66
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 56 0% 51–59 50–61 49–61 47–65
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 56 0% 51–59 50–61 49–61 46–65
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 46 0% 42–50 41–51 40–52 38–54

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0.2% 99.9%  
101 0.7% 99.7%  
102 1.3% 99.0%  
103 1.1% 98%  
104 7% 97%  
105 2% 90%  
106 6% 88%  
107 3% 82%  
108 5% 79%  
109 20% 75%  
110 10% 54%  
111 6% 44% Median
112 7% 38%  
113 8% 31%  
114 3% 24%  
115 7% 21%  
116 4% 13%  
117 3% 10%  
118 4% 7%  
119 0.4% 3%  
120 2% 3%  
121 0.1% 0.7%  
122 0.5% 0.6%  
123 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
68 0.3% 99.8%  
69 0.2% 99.5%  
70 1.2% 99.3%  
71 1.4% 98%  
72 4% 97%  
73 11% 93%  
74 10% 82%  
75 7% 72%  
76 9% 65%  
77 8% 56%  
78 28% 48% Median
79 9% 19%  
80 4% 11%  
81 4% 7% Majority
82 0.7% 3%  
83 1.0% 2%  
84 1.0% 1.0%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 100%  
67 1.0% 99.8%  
68 0.8% 98.8%  
69 0.8% 98%  
70 2% 97%  
71 6% 95%  
72 5% 89%  
73 6% 84%  
74 25% 78%  
75 6% 52%  
76 10% 47% Median
77 7% 36%  
78 17% 29%  
79 5% 13%  
80 4% 8%  
81 2% 4% Majority
82 1.0% 2%  
83 0.6% 1.0%  
84 0.2% 0.5%  
85 0.2% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.3% 99.8%  
67 1.2% 99.6%  
68 1.0% 98%  
69 2% 97%  
70 5% 95%  
71 4% 90%  
72 5% 86%  
73 28% 81%  
74 3% 53%  
75 10% 50% Median
76 9% 39%  
77 12% 30%  
78 10% 18%  
79 3% 8%  
80 3% 5%  
81 1.1% 2% Majority
82 0.5% 1.1%  
83 0.3% 0.6%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100% Last Result
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.4% 99.8%  
67 1.4% 99.5%  
68 1.0% 98%  
69 3% 97%  
70 5% 94%  
71 4% 89%  
72 6% 85%  
73 30% 78%  
74 3% 49%  
75 9% 45% Median
76 8% 37%  
77 12% 29%  
78 10% 17%  
79 3% 7%  
80 1.5% 4%  
81 1.1% 2% Majority
82 0.4% 1.0%  
83 0.3% 0.6%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.6% 99.9%  
59 0.9% 99.3%  
60 2% 98%  
61 3% 97%  
62 7% 94%  
63 26% 86%  
64 10% 60%  
65 14% 50% Median
66 13% 36%  
67 9% 23%  
68 5% 15%  
69 1.0% 9%  
70 4% 8%  
71 5% 5%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.6% 99.9%  
59 0.9% 99.3%  
60 2% 98%  
61 3% 97%  
62 7% 94%  
63 26% 87%  
64 7% 61%  
65 14% 54% Median
66 11% 40%  
67 11% 29%  
68 8% 18%  
69 1.4% 10%  
70 3% 9%  
71 5% 6%  
72 1.0% 1.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.7%  
48 0.3% 99.6%  
49 1.1% 99.2%  
50 3% 98%  
51 3% 95%  
52 3% 92%  
53 5% 89%  
54 14% 85%  
55 4% 71%  
56 13% 67% Last Result
57 27% 54% Median
58 11% 27%  
59 3% 16%  
60 6% 14%  
61 4% 8%  
62 1.1% 3%  
63 0.4% 2%  
64 0.9% 2%  
65 0.4% 1.1%  
66 0.3% 0.7%  
67 0.3% 0.4%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0% 99.9%  
46 0.3% 99.8%  
47 0.3% 99.5%  
48 0.5% 99.3%  
49 3% 98.8%  
50 2% 96%  
51 5% 94%  
52 3% 89%  
53 11% 86% Last Result
54 11% 76%  
55 5% 64%  
56 29% 59% Median
57 11% 30%  
58 5% 19%  
59 6% 14%  
60 1.5% 8%  
61 4% 7%  
62 0.3% 2%  
63 1.0% 2%  
64 0.4% 1.1%  
65 0.4% 0.8%  
66 0.3% 0.4%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0% 99.9%  
46 0.4% 99.8%  
47 0.3% 99.5%  
48 1.0% 99.1%  
49 3% 98%  
50 2% 95%  
51 5% 93% Last Result
52 6% 89%  
53 10% 83%  
54 10% 72%  
55 6% 62%  
56 28% 56% Median
57 9% 27%  
58 5% 18%  
59 6% 14%  
60 2% 8%  
61 3% 6%  
62 0.2% 2%  
63 1.0% 2%  
64 0.3% 1.1%  
65 0.4% 0.7%  
66 0.3% 0.4%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.5% 99.7%  
39 1.1% 99.2%  
40 2% 98%  
41 4% 97%  
42 8% 93%  
43 5% 84%  
44 6% 79%  
45 6% 73%  
46 25% 67% Last Result, Median
47 17% 42%  
48 9% 25%  
49 6% 16%  
50 3% 10%  
51 2% 7%  
52 4% 5%  
53 0.4% 1.0%  
54 0.5% 0.6%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations