Opinion Poll by Behaviour and Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 5–17 July 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 34.6% 32.6–36.6% 32.1–37.2% 31.6–37.7% 30.7–38.7%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 22.4% 20.7–24.2% 20.2–24.7% 19.8–25.1% 19.0–26.0%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 21.4% 19.7–23.2% 19.3–23.7% 18.9–24.1% 18.1–25.0%
Independent 15.9% 8.6% 7.5–9.9% 7.2–10.3% 7.0–10.6% 6.5–11.2%
Labour Party 6.6% 3.0% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.8–4.8%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 2.0% 1.6–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.2% 1.1–3.6%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.1% 0.7–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Social Democrats 3.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.1% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.0–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 68 65–70 65–71 64–71 63–71
Sinn Féin 23 42 40–44 39–46 38–46 38–46
Fianna Fáil 44 40 37–43 36–44 36–45 35–47
Independent 19 5 4–7 4–8 4–8 3–10
Labour Party 7 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 0 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
Independents 4 Change 4 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 0 0 0 0 0–1
Social Democrats 3 1 0–2 0–3 0–3 0–4
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.8%  
63 1.5% 99.8%  
64 0.9% 98%  
65 11% 97%  
66 6% 86%  
67 4% 81%  
68 28% 77% Median
69 22% 49%  
70 21% 27%  
71 6% 6%  
72 0.2% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 3% 99.5%  
39 4% 97%  
40 12% 93%  
41 27% 81%  
42 14% 54% Median
43 16% 40%  
44 13% 23%  
45 2% 10%  
46 8% 8%  
47 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.5% 99.9%  
36 5% 99.4%  
37 6% 94%  
38 11% 89%  
39 17% 78%  
40 17% 61% Median
41 19% 44%  
42 11% 26%  
43 7% 14%  
44 4% 8% Last Result
45 2% 4%  
46 0.2% 1.2%  
47 0.5% 1.0%  
48 0.3% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.6% 100%  
4 17% 99.4%  
5 36% 83% Median
6 25% 46%  
7 12% 21%  
8 7% 9%  
9 0.8% 2%  
10 1.0% 1.2%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Median
1 16% 17%  
2 0.8% 1.3%  
3 0.3% 0.5%  
4 0.1% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 73% 100% Median
1 22% 27%  
2 4% 4% Last Result
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 20% 100%  
1 22% 80%  
2 8% 59%  
3 13% 51% Median
4 37% 38% Last Result
5 1.3% 1.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 25% 100%  
1 50% 75% Median
2 16% 25%  
3 9% 9% Last Result
4 0.6% 0.6%  
5 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 109 100% 105–112 105–112 105–113 103–114
Sinn Féin – Fianna Fáil 67 82 70% 79–85 78–87 78–87 76–90
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 70 0% 67–72 66–73 66–73 64–74
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 69 0% 65–71 65–71 65–72 63–72
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 69 0% 65–71 65–71 65–72 63–73
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 69 0% 65–71 65–71 65–71 63–72
Fine Gael 49 68 0% 65–70 65–71 64–71 63–71
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 42 0% 39–45 38–45 38–47 37–49
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 41 0% 38–43 37–44 37–45 36–47
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 41 0% 38–43 37–44 37–45 36–48
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 40 0% 37–43 36–44 36–45 36–48

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0.2% 100%  
102 0.3% 99.8%  
103 0.8% 99.5%  
104 0.5% 98.8%  
105 16% 98%  
106 9% 82%  
107 11% 73%  
108 10% 62% Median
109 17% 52%  
110 13% 35%  
111 11% 23%  
112 8% 12%  
113 2% 3%  
114 1.3% 2%  
115 0.3% 0.3%  
116 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin – Fianna Fáil

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.5% 99.8%  
77 1.5% 99.3%  
78 6% 98%  
79 6% 92%  
80 15% 86%  
81 9% 70% Majority
82 14% 62% Median
83 16% 48%  
84 15% 32%  
85 8% 17%  
86 4% 10%  
87 4% 6%  
88 1.5% 2%  
89 0.2% 0.7%  
90 0.5% 0.6%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0% 99.9%  
64 0.4% 99.9%  
65 0.6% 99.5%  
66 6% 98.8%  
67 11% 93%  
68 3% 82%  
69 22% 79% Median
70 15% 57%  
71 21% 42%  
72 15% 21%  
73 3% 5%  
74 2% 2%  
75 0.3% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.8%  
63 1.5% 99.8%  
64 0.7% 98%  
65 10% 98%  
66 6% 87%  
67 3% 81%  
68 23% 79% Median
69 20% 55%  
70 21% 36%  
71 11% 14%  
72 3% 3%  
73 0.3% 0.4%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0% 99.9%  
63 1.4% 99.8%  
64 0.6% 98%  
65 8% 98%  
66 7% 89%  
67 3% 82%  
68 19% 79% Median
69 19% 60%  
70 21% 41%  
71 15% 19%  
72 4% 4%  
73 0.4% 0.6%  
74 0.2% 0.2%  
75 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100% Last Result
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0% 99.9%  
63 1.5% 99.8%  
64 0.8% 98%  
65 9% 98%  
66 7% 89%  
67 3% 81%  
68 25% 78% Median
69 21% 53%  
70 22% 32%  
71 10% 11%  
72 0.3% 0.5%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.8%  
63 1.5% 99.8%  
64 0.9% 98%  
65 11% 97%  
66 6% 86%  
67 4% 81%  
68 28% 77% Median
69 22% 49%  
70 21% 27%  
71 6% 6%  
72 0.2% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.3% 100%  
37 0.7% 99.7%  
38 7% 99.0%  
39 10% 92%  
40 11% 82%  
41 12% 70% Median
42 21% 58%  
43 18% 38%  
44 6% 20%  
45 9% 13%  
46 2% 5%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.2% 1.0%  
49 0.6% 0.8%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.7% 99.9%  
37 7% 99.2%  
38 7% 92%  
39 19% 85%  
40 16% 66% Median
41 23% 51%  
42 12% 27%  
43 8% 16%  
44 4% 8%  
45 2% 4%  
46 0.3% 1.3% Last Result
47 0.6% 1.0%  
48 0.3% 0.5%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.5% 99.9%  
37 7% 99.4%  
38 5% 92%  
39 17% 87%  
40 18% 70% Median
41 19% 52%  
42 16% 34%  
43 8% 18%  
44 6% 10%  
45 3% 4%  
46 0.4% 2%  
47 0.5% 1.1%  
48 0.4% 0.5%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0% Last Result

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 5% 99.5%  
37 5% 95%  
38 10% 90%  
39 15% 80%  
40 19% 65% Median
41 14% 46%  
42 16% 32%  
43 8% 16%  
44 5% 9%  
45 3% 4%  
46 0.3% 1.3%  
47 0.5% 1.0%  
48 0.4% 0.5%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations