Opinion Poll by Ireland Thinks for The Irish Daily Mail, 15–24 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 29.0% 27.1–30.9% 26.6–31.5% 26.2–32.0% 25.3–32.9%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 24.0% 22.3–25.8% 21.8–26.4% 21.4–26.8% 20.6–27.7%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 19.0% 17.4–20.7% 17.0–21.2% 16.6–21.6% 15.9–22.5%
Independent 15.9% 14.3% 13.0–15.9% 12.6–16.3% 12.2–16.7% 11.6–17.5%
Labour Party 6.6% 6.1% 5.2–7.2% 4.9–7.5% 4.7–7.8% 4.3–8.3%
Social Democrats 3.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.5%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.5%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.9% 0.9–3.2%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 55 51–59 50–59 49–61 45–63
Fianna Fáil 44 42 39–46 37–47 36–47 35–48
Sinn Féin 23 35 34–38 32–40 32–41 30–41
Independent 19 16 15–16 13–16 12–16 7–17
Labour Party 7 5 3–8 3–9 2–11 1–14
Social Democrats 3 3 3 3–4 2–4 0–4
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–2
Independents 4 Change 4 4 3–5 3–5 2–5 1–5
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 0 0 0 0 0–1

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.3% 100%  
45 0.5% 99.7%  
46 0.4% 99.1%  
47 0.2% 98.7%  
48 0.3% 98.5%  
49 0.9% 98% Last Result
50 7% 97%  
51 18% 91%  
52 2% 73%  
53 14% 71%  
54 1.3% 56%  
55 27% 55% Median
56 5% 28%  
57 1.5% 23%  
58 4% 22%  
59 14% 17%  
60 0.3% 3%  
61 0.7% 3%  
62 0.4% 2%  
63 1.2% 2%  
64 0% 0.4%  
65 0.3% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 3% 99.5%  
37 3% 97%  
38 0.6% 94%  
39 15% 93%  
40 1.4% 78%  
41 5% 77%  
42 24% 71% Median
43 6% 48%  
44 17% 42% Last Result
45 12% 25%  
46 5% 14%  
47 8% 9%  
48 0.6% 0.9%  
49 0.1% 0.3%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.8% 99.8%  
31 0.3% 99.0%  
32 5% 98.7%  
33 3% 94%  
34 20% 91%  
35 31% 71% Median
36 17% 40%  
37 4% 23%  
38 12% 19%  
39 1.4% 8%  
40 2% 6%  
41 4% 4%  
42 0.3% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 1.1% 99.9%  
8 0.1% 98.8%  
9 0.5% 98.6%  
10 0.2% 98%  
11 0.3% 98%  
12 0.3% 98%  
13 4% 97%  
14 4% 94%  
15 4% 90%  
16 85% 86% Median
17 0.8% 1.0%  
18 0% 0.3%  
19 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.5% 100%  
2 2% 99.4%  
3 22% 97%  
4 24% 75%  
5 35% 51% Median
6 2% 16%  
7 3% 14% Last Result
8 5% 10%  
9 0.9% 5%  
10 1.0% 4%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.2% 1.2%  
13 0.2% 1.0%  
14 0.7% 0.8%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.3% 100%  
1 0.3% 98.7%  
2 1.1% 98%  
3 92% 97% Last Result, Median
4 6% 6%  
5 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Median
1 3% 5%  
2 2% 2% Last Result
3 0.4% 0.4%  
4 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 1.0% 99.6%  
2 4% 98.7%  
3 21% 95%  
4 41% 74% Last Result, Median
5 33% 33%  
6 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Median
1 0.9% 1.1%  
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 97 100% 94–99 92–102 91–102 88–105
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 77 28% 75–82 72–83 72–84 69–86
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 63 0% 57–66 57–68 57–70 55–72
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 60 0% 54–63 54–65 54–67 52–69
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 60 0% 54–63 54–65 54–67 52–69
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 55 0% 51–59 50–59 50–61 45–63
Fine Gael 49 55 0% 51–59 50–59 49–61 45–63
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 50 0% 46–55 45–56 44–57 41–59
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 47 0% 43–52 42–53 40–54 39–56
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 47 0% 43–52 42–52 40–53 39–56
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 42 0% 39–46 37–47 37–47 36–49

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0% 99.8%  
87 0% 99.8%  
88 0.3% 99.7%  
89 1.1% 99.4%  
90 0.3% 98%  
91 0.9% 98%  
92 5% 97%  
93 0.9% 92% Last Result
94 3% 91%  
95 15% 89%  
96 6% 73%  
97 25% 67% Median
98 29% 43%  
99 5% 14%  
100 2% 9%  
101 0.4% 6%  
102 5% 6%  
103 0.2% 1.1%  
104 0.1% 0.8%  
105 0.4% 0.7%  
106 0.1% 0.3%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.5% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.4%  
71 0.6% 99.1%  
72 4% 98.6%  
73 2% 95%  
74 1.0% 93%  
75 14% 92%  
76 6% 78%  
77 25% 72% Median
78 8% 48%  
79 10% 39%  
80 0.9% 29%  
81 8% 28% Majority
82 14% 20%  
83 3% 6%  
84 1.3% 3%  
85 0.8% 1.4%  
86 0.2% 0.6%  
87 0.1% 0.4%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.7%  
55 0.7% 99.6%  
56 1.1% 98.9%  
57 11% 98%  
58 7% 87%  
59 5% 80%  
60 9% 75%  
61 3% 66% Last Result
62 7% 62%  
63 26% 55% Median
64 3% 29%  
65 3% 26%  
66 16% 23%  
67 1.3% 7%  
68 1.1% 6%  
69 2% 5%  
70 0.9% 3%  
71 0.6% 2%  
72 1.2% 2%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 0.1% 99.7%  
52 0.7% 99.6%  
53 1.1% 98.9%  
54 14% 98%  
55 4% 84%  
56 5% 80%  
57 9% 75%  
58 3% 66% Last Result
59 6% 62%  
60 25% 56% Median
61 4% 30%  
62 4% 27%  
63 16% 23%  
64 2% 7%  
65 1.0% 6%  
66 2% 5%  
67 0.7% 3%  
68 0.7% 2%  
69 1.2% 2%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 0.1% 99.6%  
52 0.9% 99.5%  
53 1.1% 98.6%  
54 14% 98%  
55 4% 83%  
56 5% 80% Last Result
57 9% 75%  
58 6% 65%  
59 6% 60%  
60 24% 54% Median
61 4% 30%  
62 3% 27%  
63 16% 23%  
64 1.1% 7%  
65 1.1% 6%  
66 2% 5%  
67 0.6% 3%  
68 0.7% 2%  
69 1.2% 1.5%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.3% 100%  
45 0.5% 99.7%  
46 0% 99.1%  
47 0.5% 99.1%  
48 0.2% 98.6%  
49 0.8% 98%  
50 5% 98%  
51 18% 93% Last Result
52 4% 74%  
53 14% 71%  
54 1.3% 57%  
55 26% 55% Median
56 5% 29%  
57 2% 23%  
58 4% 22%  
59 15% 18%  
60 0.3% 3%  
61 0.5% 3%  
62 0.6% 2%  
63 1.2% 2%  
64 0% 0.4%  
65 0.3% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.3% 100%  
45 0.5% 99.7%  
46 0.4% 99.1%  
47 0.2% 98.7%  
48 0.3% 98.5%  
49 0.9% 98% Last Result
50 7% 97%  
51 18% 91%  
52 2% 73%  
53 14% 71%  
54 1.3% 56%  
55 27% 55% Median
56 5% 28%  
57 1.5% 23%  
58 4% 22%  
59 14% 17%  
60 0.3% 3%  
61 0.7% 3%  
62 0.4% 2%  
63 1.2% 2%  
64 0% 0.4%  
65 0.3% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.7% 100%  
42 0.5% 99.3%  
43 1.1% 98.8%  
44 0.9% 98%  
45 3% 97%  
46 14% 94%  
47 1.1% 80%  
48 5% 79%  
49 2% 74%  
50 33% 72% Median
51 2% 39%  
52 14% 37%  
53 4% 23%  
54 6% 19%  
55 8% 13%  
56 2% 5% Last Result
57 2% 4%  
58 0.8% 2%  
59 0.7% 1.0%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 1.2% 99.9%  
40 1.3% 98.7%  
41 0.6% 97%  
42 3% 97%  
43 14% 94%  
44 4% 80%  
45 2% 76%  
46 2% 74%  
47 33% 72% Median
48 1.1% 39%  
49 14% 38%  
50 5% 24%  
51 6% 20%  
52 8% 13%  
53 2% 5% Last Result
54 2% 4%  
55 0.8% 2%  
56 0.5% 1.0%  
57 0.4% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 2% 99.7%  
40 0.8% 98%  
41 0.6% 97%  
42 3% 97%  
43 14% 94%  
44 5% 80%  
45 1.1% 75%  
46 2% 74%  
47 33% 72% Median
48 1.0% 38%  
49 14% 37%  
50 5% 24%  
51 6% 19% Last Result
52 9% 13%  
53 2% 4%  
54 0.5% 2%  
55 0.6% 2%  
56 0.8% 1.0%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.9%  
36 2% 99.5%  
37 3% 98%  
38 0.7% 94%  
39 15% 93%  
40 2% 78%  
41 5% 77%  
42 24% 72% Median
43 6% 48%  
44 15% 42%  
45 11% 27%  
46 6% 16% Last Result
47 8% 9%  
48 1.0% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations