Opinion Poll by Red C for The Sunday Business Post, 6–13 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 33.5% 31.4–35.3% 30.9–35.8% 30.4–36.3% 29.6–37.2%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 22.4% 20.6–24.0% 20.1–24.4% 19.7–24.9% 19.0–25.7%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 14.2% 12.8–15.6% 12.4–16.0% 12.1–16.4% 11.5–17.1%
Independent 15.9% 11.2% 9.9–12.5% 9.6–12.9% 9.3–13.2% 8.7–13.9%
Labour Party 6.6% 6.1% 5.2–7.2% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–7.8% 4.4–8.3%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Social Democrats 3.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.7%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.3% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 70 65–71 64–71 63–71 59–72
Fianna Fáil 44 40 38–44 37–45 36–46 35–49
Sinn Féin 23 25 21–31 19–32 19–33 18–34
Independent 19 12 7–13 6–14 5–14 5–15
Labour Party 7 6 3–11 3–12 2–13 1–14
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 1 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Social Democrats 3 3 3 3–4 3–4 1–4
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Independents 4 Change 4 2 2–4 1–5 0–5 0–5
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.4% 99.8%  
60 0.4% 99.3%  
61 0.4% 98.9%  
62 0.8% 98.6%  
63 1.2% 98%  
64 3% 97%  
65 5% 94%  
66 4% 89%  
67 9% 85%  
68 11% 76%  
69 14% 65%  
70 18% 51% Median
71 32% 33%  
72 0.5% 0.9%  
73 0.4% 0.4%  
74 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.9% 99.7%  
36 2% 98.8%  
37 2% 96%  
38 8% 95%  
39 8% 87%  
40 30% 79% Median
41 13% 49%  
42 13% 35%  
43 6% 23%  
44 9% 17% Last Result
45 4% 8%  
46 2% 4%  
47 1.3% 2%  
48 0.4% 0.9%  
49 0.2% 0.5%  
50 0.1% 0.3%  
51 0.2% 0.2%  
52 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.3% 100%  
18 0.3% 99.6%  
19 6% 99.4%  
20 2% 93%  
21 9% 91%  
22 8% 82%  
23 6% 74% Last Result
24 7% 68%  
25 23% 61% Median
26 3% 39%  
27 4% 36%  
28 10% 32%  
29 8% 22%  
30 3% 14%  
31 3% 10%  
32 4% 8%  
33 2% 4%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0.3% 0.4%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 2% 99.7%  
6 3% 97%  
7 9% 95%  
8 7% 86%  
9 11% 79%  
10 10% 69%  
11 6% 59%  
12 16% 52% Median
13 31% 36%  
14 4% 5%  
15 0.5% 0.8%  
16 0.4% 0.4%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 1.2% 99.8%  
2 2% 98.5%  
3 8% 96%  
4 9% 89%  
5 10% 80%  
6 30% 70% Median
7 11% 41% Last Result
8 9% 30%  
9 4% 20%  
10 6% 16%  
11 5% 10%  
12 0.9% 5%  
13 2% 4%  
14 1.5% 2%  
15 0.2% 0.4%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 44% 100%  
1 13% 56% Median
2 12% 43%  
3 29% 31%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.3% 100%  
2 0.2% 98.6%  
3 92% 98% Last Result, Median
4 6% 6%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 70% 100% Median
1 30% 30%  
2 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 5% 97%  
2 47% 91% Median
3 10% 44%  
4 25% 34% Last Result
5 10% 10%  
6 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 1.1%  
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 111 100% 105–114 103–115 102–116 100–118
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 80 26% 74–83 73–84 71–85 68–87
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 77 6% 71–80 70–81 68–82 65–84
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 77 5% 71–80 69–80 68–82 64–84
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 65 0.1% 62–71 61–73 60–75 58–77
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 70 0% 66–71 64–72 63–72 59–72
Fine Gael 49 70 0% 65–71 64–71 63–71 59–72
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 50 0% 47–55 46–56 45–57 43–61
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 47 0% 44–52 43–53 42–54 40–58
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 46 0% 44–52 43–53 42–54 39–58
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 41 0% 39–44 38–46 36–47 35–49

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.8%  
100 0.6% 99.6%  
101 1.4% 99.0%  
102 2% 98%  
103 3% 96%  
104 2% 93%  
105 4% 92%  
106 3% 88%  
107 10% 85%  
108 7% 75%  
109 7% 68%  
110 4% 61% Median
111 30% 57%  
112 10% 27%  
113 6% 17%  
114 2% 11%  
115 5% 8%  
116 3% 4%  
117 0.3% 0.9%  
118 0.4% 0.5%  
119 0.1% 0.2%  
120 0.1% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.8%  
68 0.2% 99.5%  
69 0.4% 99.3%  
70 1.0% 98.9%  
71 2% 98%  
72 0.9% 96%  
73 3% 95%  
74 6% 92%  
75 4% 86%  
76 8% 82%  
77 6% 74%  
78 8% 69%  
79 5% 61% Median
80 30% 56%  
81 6% 26% Majority
82 4% 20%  
83 10% 16%  
84 3% 6%  
85 2% 3%  
86 0.3% 1.0%  
87 0.3% 0.7%  
88 0.4% 0.4%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.8%  
65 0.2% 99.5%  
66 0.4% 99.3%  
67 1.2% 98.9%  
68 2% 98%  
69 0.9% 96%  
70 3% 95%  
71 6% 92%  
72 3% 86%  
73 8% 82%  
74 7% 74%  
75 7% 68%  
76 5% 61% Median
77 29% 56%  
78 6% 26%  
79 4% 20%  
80 9% 16%  
81 3% 6% Majority
82 2% 3%  
83 0.3% 1.0%  
84 0.2% 0.7%  
85 0.4% 0.5%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100% Last Result
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.8%  
65 0.2% 99.5%  
66 0.5% 99.3%  
67 1.2% 98.8%  
68 2% 98%  
69 2% 96%  
70 4% 94%  
71 6% 90%  
72 7% 85%  
73 7% 77%  
74 6% 70%  
75 6% 65%  
76 6% 58% Median
77 30% 53%  
78 4% 22%  
79 3% 18%  
80 10% 15%  
81 2% 5% Majority
82 2% 3%  
83 0.3% 0.9%  
84 0.5% 0.7%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.5% 99.9%  
59 1.0% 99.4%  
60 3% 98%  
61 5% 96%  
62 6% 90%  
63 6% 84%  
64 5% 78%  
65 24% 73% Median
66 7% 49%  
67 8% 42% Last Result
68 9% 34%  
69 6% 26%  
70 5% 19%  
71 6% 14%  
72 2% 8%  
73 2% 6%  
74 1.4% 5%  
75 0.8% 3%  
76 1.4% 2%  
77 0.7% 1.1%  
78 0.1% 0.3%  
79 0% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1% Majority
82 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.4% 99.8%  
60 0.4% 99.4%  
61 0.4% 99.0%  
62 0.8% 98.6%  
63 0.9% 98%  
64 2% 97%  
65 4% 95%  
66 3% 90%  
67 8% 87%  
68 8% 79%  
69 13% 71%  
70 21% 59% Median
71 32% 37%  
72 5% 6%  
73 0.4% 0.5%  
74 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.4% 99.8%  
60 0.4% 99.3%  
61 0.4% 98.9%  
62 0.8% 98.6%  
63 1.2% 98%  
64 3% 97%  
65 5% 94%  
66 4% 89%  
67 9% 85%  
68 11% 76%  
69 14% 65%  
70 18% 51% Median
71 32% 33%  
72 0.5% 0.9%  
73 0.4% 0.4%  
74 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.3% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.6%  
44 0.5% 99.4%  
45 2% 98.9%  
46 3% 97%  
47 5% 94%  
48 6% 89%  
49 32% 83% Median
50 5% 52%  
51 8% 46%  
52 8% 38%  
53 5% 31%  
54 6% 26%  
55 11% 20%  
56 6% 9% Last Result
57 2% 3%  
58 0.6% 2%  
59 0.3% 1.1%  
60 0.3% 0.8%  
61 0.3% 0.5%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.6%  
41 0.5% 99.4%  
42 2% 98.9%  
43 4% 97%  
44 6% 94%  
45 6% 88%  
46 31% 82% Median
47 6% 51%  
48 7% 45%  
49 7% 38%  
50 5% 31%  
51 6% 26%  
52 11% 20%  
53 6% 9% Last Result
54 2% 3%  
55 0.6% 2%  
56 0.3% 1.1%  
57 0.3% 0.8%  
58 0.3% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.4% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.5%  
41 0.9% 99.3%  
42 2% 98%  
43 5% 96%  
44 5% 92%  
45 10% 87%  
46 28% 77% Median
47 8% 48%  
48 5% 41%  
49 6% 36%  
50 7% 30%  
51 6% 24% Last Result
52 11% 17%  
53 3% 6%  
54 1.0% 3%  
55 0.5% 1.5%  
56 0.2% 1.0%  
57 0.3% 0.8%  
58 0.3% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.9% 99.7%  
36 1.5% 98.8%  
37 2% 97%  
38 5% 96%  
39 10% 91%  
40 31% 81% Median
41 8% 50%  
42 16% 43%  
43 8% 27%  
44 9% 19%  
45 4% 10%  
46 3% 6% Last Result
47 2% 4%  
48 0.4% 1.1%  
49 0.3% 0.7%  
50 0.2% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations