Opinion Poll by Behaviour and Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 6–18 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 31.8% 29.9–33.8% 29.4–34.4% 28.9–34.9% 28.0–35.8%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 24.9% 23.2–26.8% 22.6–27.3% 22.2–27.8% 21.4–28.7%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 19.9% 18.3–21.6% 17.8–22.1% 17.5–22.6% 16.7–23.4%
Independent 15.9% 6.7% 5.8–7.9% 5.5–8.2% 5.3–8.5% 4.8–9.1%
Labour Party 6.6% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.6% 3.4–7.1%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.8–4.7%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.8–4.7%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.5% 0.4–1.7% 0.3–2.0%
Social Democrats 3.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.0–1.0%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.1% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.0–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 66 61–68 59–68 57–69 54–69
Fianna Fáil 44 44 42–50 41–52 40–54 39–55
Sinn Féin 23 36 34–39 33–40 32–42 32–43
Independent 19 3 3–4 2–4 2–5 1–6
Labour Party 7 5 2–7 1–7 0–7 0–9
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 3 1–4 1–4 1–5 0–7
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 2 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–3
Independents 4 Change 4 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Social Democrats 3 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 0.4% 99.6%  
55 0.4% 99.2%  
56 0.6% 98.8%  
57 1.0% 98%  
58 1.3% 97%  
59 2% 96%  
60 3% 94%  
61 2% 91%  
62 4% 90%  
63 2% 86%  
64 3% 84%  
65 7% 81%  
66 24% 74% Median
67 29% 49%  
68 17% 20%  
69 3% 3%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.5% 100%  
40 4% 99.5%  
41 5% 96%  
42 12% 91%  
43 19% 79%  
44 15% 61% Last Result, Median
45 8% 46%  
46 6% 38%  
47 12% 31%  
48 4% 20%  
49 2% 15%  
50 5% 13%  
51 2% 8%  
52 2% 6%  
53 1.5% 4%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.5% 0.8%  
56 0.1% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 3% 99.6%  
33 5% 97%  
34 11% 92%  
35 14% 82%  
36 27% 67% Median
37 11% 41%  
38 12% 30%  
39 10% 19%  
40 4% 8%  
41 1.5% 4%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.8% 1.1%  
44 0.2% 0.3%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.3% 100%  
2 7% 98.6%  
3 77% 92% Median
4 11% 15%  
5 1.2% 3%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 6% 97%  
2 10% 90%  
3 21% 81%  
4 6% 60%  
5 24% 55% Median
6 5% 31%  
7 24% 25% Last Result
8 0.9% 2%  
9 0.4% 0.8%  
10 0.2% 0.4%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 20% 98%  
2 7% 78%  
3 44% 71% Median
4 24% 27%  
5 1.5% 3%  
6 0.8% 2% Last Result
7 0.4% 0.7%  
8 0.2% 0.3%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 22% 100%  
1 7% 78%  
2 69% 71% Last Result, Median
3 1.1% 1.4%  
4 0.1% 0.3%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 58% 100% Median
1 19% 42%  
2 6% 23%  
3 4% 17%  
4 13% 14% Last Result
5 0.6% 0.6%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 111 100% 108–114 107–114 106–115 104–118
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 81 53% 79–86 78–89 77–92 77–95
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 72 0% 66–75 62–75 61–76 58–76
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 72 0% 66–75 62–75 61–76 58–76
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 71 0% 65–73 61–73 59–74 57–74
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 68 0% 62–70 60–70 58–70 55–71
Fine Gael 49 66 0% 61–68 59–68 57–69 54–69
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 51 0% 47–55 46–57 45–59 44–60
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 51 0% 47–55 46–57 44–58 44–60
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 49 0% 46–54 44–56 43–57 42–59
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 46 0% 43–51 42–53 41–55 41–56

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 99.9%  
103 0.2% 99.9%  
104 0.6% 99.7%  
105 1.1% 99.2%  
106 2% 98%  
107 2% 96%  
108 8% 94%  
109 22% 86%  
110 12% 64% Median
111 16% 52%  
112 9% 36%  
113 14% 27%  
114 8% 12%  
115 2% 4%  
116 1.2% 2%  
117 0.4% 1.1%  
118 0.6% 0.7%  
119 0.1% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0.3% 100%  
77 3% 99.7%  
78 6% 97%  
79 23% 90%  
80 15% 68% Median
81 15% 53% Majority
82 10% 38%  
83 12% 29%  
84 3% 17%  
85 3% 14%  
86 1.4% 11%  
87 2% 9%  
88 1.1% 7%  
89 1.4% 6%  
90 1.2% 5%  
91 0.8% 4%  
92 0.7% 3%  
93 0.8% 2%  
94 0.6% 1.4%  
95 0.7% 0.8%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.4% 99.9%  
58 0.6% 99.5% Last Result
59 0.6% 98.9%  
60 0.8% 98%  
61 2% 98%  
62 1.0% 96%  
63 2% 95%  
64 0.9% 93%  
65 2% 92%  
66 0.7% 90%  
67 0.6% 89%  
68 2% 89%  
69 7% 87%  
70 7% 80%  
71 5% 73%  
72 23% 68%  
73 12% 45% Median
74 7% 33%  
75 22% 26%  
76 4% 4%  
77 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.4% 99.9%  
58 0.6% 99.5%  
59 0.6% 98.9%  
60 0.8% 98%  
61 2% 98% Last Result
62 1.0% 96%  
63 1.1% 95%  
64 2% 94%  
65 1.3% 92%  
66 1.3% 91%  
67 0.6% 90%  
68 2% 89%  
69 6% 87%  
70 7% 81%  
71 5% 73%  
72 23% 68%  
73 12% 45% Median
74 6% 33%  
75 22% 26%  
76 4% 5%  
77 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
57 0.4% 99.6%  
58 0.8% 99.2%  
59 1.0% 98%  
60 1.0% 97%  
61 2% 96%  
62 2% 94%  
63 2% 93%  
64 0.8% 91%  
65 1.1% 90%  
66 0.9% 89%  
67 4% 88%  
68 5% 84%  
69 6% 79%  
70 19% 73%  
71 13% 54% Median
72 13% 41%  
73 24% 29%  
74 5% 5%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result
52 0% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.8%  
55 0.5% 99.7%  
56 0.7% 99.2%  
57 0.5% 98%  
58 1.0% 98%  
59 0.8% 97%  
60 2% 96%  
61 1.2% 94%  
62 4% 93%  
63 1.5% 89%  
64 3% 87%  
65 4% 84%  
66 5% 80%  
67 12% 76%  
68 26% 64% Median
69 24% 39%  
70 12% 15%  
71 2% 2%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 0.4% 99.6%  
55 0.4% 99.2%  
56 0.6% 98.8%  
57 1.0% 98%  
58 1.3% 97%  
59 2% 96%  
60 3% 94%  
61 2% 91%  
62 4% 90%  
63 2% 86%  
64 3% 84%  
65 7% 81%  
66 24% 74% Median
67 29% 49%  
68 17% 20%  
69 3% 3%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 2% 99.6%  
45 2% 98%  
46 3% 96%  
47 4% 93%  
48 4% 89%  
49 19% 84%  
50 7% 65%  
51 12% 58% Median
52 22% 46%  
53 5% 24%  
54 7% 19%  
55 2% 12%  
56 2% 9% Last Result
57 3% 7%  
58 1.1% 4%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.6% 1.0%  
61 0.3% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 2% 99.6%  
45 2% 97%  
46 4% 96%  
47 4% 92%  
48 4% 88%  
49 19% 84%  
50 7% 65%  
51 12% 58% Median
52 22% 46%  
53 5% 24% Last Result
54 7% 18%  
55 2% 11%  
56 2% 9%  
57 3% 7%  
58 2% 4%  
59 1.3% 2%  
60 0.5% 0.9%  
61 0.3% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.2% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.8%  
43 3% 99.5%  
44 4% 97%  
45 3% 93%  
46 4% 91%  
47 17% 86%  
48 6% 70%  
49 14% 63% Median
50 18% 50%  
51 6% 31% Last Result
52 11% 25%  
53 3% 14%  
54 3% 12%  
55 2% 8%  
56 2% 6%  
57 3% 4%  
58 0.4% 1.1%  
59 0.3% 0.7%  
60 0.3% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.3% 100%  
41 3% 99.7%  
42 2% 97%  
43 6% 95%  
44 13% 89%  
45 23% 76%  
46 13% 53% Last Result, Median
47 8% 40%  
48 6% 32%  
49 8% 25%  
50 4% 18%  
51 4% 13%  
52 4% 10%  
53 2% 6%  
54 1.3% 4%  
55 1.5% 3%  
56 1.0% 1.2%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations